Working on epistemic humility and athletic capability

Joined September 2017
Can endorse this ranking
Replying to @CollisAventinus
My personal fav is LSD; in my data, shrooms and LSD get very similar ratings for stuff like 'doing them was a good idea' and rate of side effects etc. Ayahuascha has higher satisfaction ratings but also higher side effects. MDMA is overall the best drug, but it's not exactly a psychedelic
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Tyler retweeted
LLMs are like LSD: the danger isn't that they put new thoughts in your head that weren't there, but that they let your own bad thoughts amplify and distort in an unchecked feedback cycle "AI solipsism" is a much better name for this than "AI psychosis"
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Red Pen Reviews is, as always, doing the lord’s work
Red Pen Reviews just published our review of Good Energy, by @CaseyMeansMD and @calleymeans. This is a particularly important review, because both authors are influential in US public health policy, and Dr. Casey Means is the current nominee for US Surgeon General.
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Get in. We’re Making America Healthy Again.
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The US has reportedly decided to approve exports of NVIDIA’s H200 chip to China. This gives Chinese AI labs chips that outperform anything China can make until ~2028. How big a deal this is depends on how many we export. Thread with key charts from our new report...
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"The American middle class is shrinking, specifically because they make too much money to be considered middle class any more" is one of those things that's true but makes people irate when you say it out loud.
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A question for you: what's the best short quote about rationality, bias, or human folly? I'll start: You are not the king of your brain. You are the creepy guy standing next to the king, going 'a most judicious choice, sire. ' -Steven Kaas
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Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nate Soares wrote a book about superintelligence, called If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies. It was released last week. The book is now a New York Times bestseller. It is endorsed by leading scientists across many fields, including a "godfather of AI" and the most cited living scientist; by national security experts and former government officials; by journalists; by many other public figures. Max Tegmark, the MIT physics professor, calls it the most important book of the decade. Stephen Fry says it's the most important book he's read for years. No surprise. In the coming years, humanity could develop a mind smarter than all of us combined. The book makes a careful argument for why, with anything remotely like the current state of this field, no one would have any control over what this mind would be or what goals it would have, and humanity will end if it creates a superintelligence. Humanity faces a clear danger of literal extinction caused by AI. This is not an exaggeration; literal deaths of everyone and the end of basically everything of value to us in the universe. And AI companies are in a race to kill everyone. This book is so important because it could help stop humanity on this path to self-annihilation. The book of the day in The Guardian. As The Spectator puts it: "If more and more people understand the danger, wake up and decide to end the “suicide race,” our fate is still in our own hands". Now, a New York Times bestseller. We need to raise the alarm; make the careful case; make it easier for people to be brave to speak up about the danger. While humanity lives, it is still possible for us to stop. To convince the governments to make sure that no one, anywhere, can create a superintelligence until humanity knows how to do that safely. This book can serve as a wake up call for our species. I really hope this is just the beginning.
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We really made it big y’all
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Comically long thread of incredibly random people recommending "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies" starting with Yoshua Bengio, the most cited living scientist and one of the inventors of deep learning
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It seems like there is not enough of a policy response to the fact that, with 57M miles of data, Waymo’s autonomous vehicles experience 85% less serious injuries & 79% less injuries overall than cars with human drivers. 2.4 million are injured & 40k killed in US accidents a year
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Still think about this every time I hear someone romanticizing the pre-industrial era
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I need a browser extension so I can send this reply to people with a single click.
Replying to @NickEMoran
you should consider becoming less reflexively and obtusely hostile it doesn’t make you look smart and above it all the way you imagine, it just makes you look antisocial
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This chart shows the top 12 USAID focus areas that have been partially retained at the State Department after the chaotic aid cuts. These are really deep cuts to lifesaving and security-enhancing programs.
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Some personal news. Today, I’m leaving The Atlantic after almost 17 years and moving my writing to Substack. It would be convenient, for the purposes of crafting an exciting departure announcement, to have a dramatic exit story: a fight, a grievance, a shouting match with an editor that ended with me hurling a bunch of leather-backed Thoreau volumes across the open-plan office. That is not the case here. I love The Atlantic, and I'll remain a contributing writer there. But after almost two decades at one publication, I wanted to write for myself. The things I've published that I'm most proud of—whether it was the original abundance agenda essay, or my piece on workism—emerged from a very personal expression of frustration, or confusion, or curiosity. I want to know what my thinking and writing is like if I lean into a more independent and personal writing life. That's brought me to Substack, which is already home to an astonishing share of my overall reading. I'm excited to join their community and excited to build my own. The name of the newsletter should be easy to remember: Derek Thompson. The newsletter will have three main pillars 1. Abundance 2. The frontier of science and technology—GLP1s, AI, biotech, energy breakthroughs—covered in a way that’s both curious and skeptical 3. The anti-social century & the social crises of anxiety and aloneness Thanks to The Atlantic for 16.8 incredible years and thanks to everybody who follows me across the river. - dt
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Has nominative determinism gone too far (h/t @bschne)
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Can you really reverse type-2 diabetes just by losing weight? A new Lancet meta-analysis of 22 global RCTs says a clear: YES. And, for the first time, we have a formula for calculating the odds of success! Let’s bust the “magic diets” myth and look at the data. 🧵👇
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Israel just struck Iran's nuclear facilities with 200 aircraft and 330+ munitions. But they haven't stopped Iran's nuclear program yet. What's going on? And what's going to happen next? Read the article or get my thread
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I’ve cnoticed this to be true in many cases, where people are mostly weight stable but go through short periods of time where they gain weight quickly and ratchet up to a higher body fat level
We assume body fat gain is a gradual process. But what if, instead, it is driven by short bursts of weight gain around lifestyle disruptions? This “lifestyle instability” model suggests a different way to tackle weight gain prevention.
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We’re well on the way to solving obesity and I don’t think (most) cancer is going to be all that far behind. A few of my good friends in biotech are working on extremely promising therapies.
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