In a default consumptive state | Early stage investor | Co-founder and Lead at 1406 Park Lane Partners
Madrid, España
Joined January 2012
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You would think Friday would be a celebration. Of capitalism. Of science. Of what is still possible when people commit to a hard problem for two decades.
It wasn't. The dominant story we picked was "trillionaire bad."
We almost predicted Muse here @jaimenovoa. If we bought Meta since this exchange we would have been up almost 40%, all in less than a month 🤠
The story we tell on days like Friday determines who tries the next absurdly hard thing. The people we celebrate are the people others decide to become.
theatomicinvestor.com/p/weal…
Uday retweeted
Best bit of journalism I've read around Man Utd in years theguardian.com/football/202…
It is only a real breakthrough if there is a LuxCo on the other side. Sigh. This hate towards Big Tech is just ridiculous.
Disappointed at this analysis from one of my fav thinkers out there.
No consideration of incremental gains in existing product revs at all
Acceleration in product adoption / new products
Potentially owning the supply of Gen AI infra capturing value with the op. leverage
Talent!
AI powered recipe generator. Something you might want to take for a spin.
cc: @InvestmentTalkk epicure.kaikaku.ai/
"The only moat is speed of execution". Echoing @jaminball view on moats.
Windsurf CEO explains why traditional startup moats are mostly silly.
Varun said even with 50-100 of the best MIT engineers, that's still just "hundreds of engineering years" in your product. Someone else can build something similar in the same space.
He used Nvidia as an example. People think CUDA is their real moat, but that's not accurate.
Large companies like Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic spend tens of billions on chips. If CUDA didn't exist, they'd find a way to write assembly code and make GPUs work.
People use CUDA because Nvidia made it really capable at low floating-point math, great interconnect, and fast computers. Not because they're locked in.
Every year Nvidia has pressure - if they don't make hardware, interconnect, and memory bandwidth much faster, their profit margins shrink and AMD will compete.
For startups, the only moat is speed. Learning where the dead bodies are. Understanding what doesn't work and building compounding advantages through that knowledge.
Speed lets you learn from the market faster, which means you're first to the next idea too.
U.S PE defying broader M&A slowdown. Deployment FOMO is real, tech and some other 'defensive' sectors taking the lead here.
Private credit availability a big difference maker imo. Relying just on syndicated debt markets wouldn't have pushed deals over the line in these times.
1/
AI is going vertical.
The newsflow around AI in recent weeks has a common thread - the lines between different layers continue to blur.
Model providers are trying to move up the stack as inference prices fall and APIs get commoditised.
3/
What happens when the model providers start competing with the AI apps they power via APIs?
Does Application layer capital deployment now take a back seat?
I tried to pin down some thoughts and ideas on the above last week.
(link below!)
I looked at PE in 2024 from a "Listed PE" lens.
The megacap PE basket: BX, KKR, BAM, EQT, CG, APO, ARES (also the Mag 7 of PE) now manage $4.8T in assets across asset classes and captured almost 60% of new funds raised in 2024.
But I argue that this basket has an increasingly less exposure to the cyclicality of capital markets, as fee-related earnings makes up a large proprtion of earnings.
The LP base is more diversified with more stable and durable sources of capital.
