Thinking Out Loud: Well, thats going to solve the issue of the global central banks having to Refi their debts at high rates! My guess is that rates over-time come down to 2.5%. Next up however, they will need large amounts of liquidity to monetize the previous cycle interest payments to roll it over. That will come in due course (MOAR COWBELL). The bigger game is playing out and markets are caught in the middle for now. We might even have war to add to the list of reasons to inject liquidity but that comes with yet more uncertainly, FUD and volatility. These "macro spasms" tend to be rather nasty but realtively short-lived, much like the "taper tantrum" in 2018 or the China/EU slowdown fear and sharp dollar reversal of 2016 (similar to now). But they can last a few weeks. Both of these prior episodes saw mass liquidiations of assets (as everything goes to a correlation of 1), which soon reversed as the liquidity cycle kicked-in. Bears love them, long-term bulls love them but those on a shorter time horizon, or with less conviction, get really sideswiped/shaken up by them. Mass anxiety over X doesnt help as FUD grips the main narrative. Macro set ups like this come from time to time. The question you need to ask yourselves is whether anything has changed in the business cycle. IF we were at the point where the ISM was turning down after a cycle peak, then this could usher in something more protracted. But we are at the bottom of the business cycle with a massive easing of financial conditions in place, accelerated by the dollar decline that is just starting and by the rate decline, and forward looking indicators are showing signs of a good recovery ahead. Thus the probabilistic outcome is that this is just a nasty flush out. Therefore using my Everything Code framework (which is all about the cycle and not about the wiggles) I'd be strongly biased towards using this reset as a very good opportunity to add to trades ahead of the liquidty spigots opening (whenever that is...but likely within 4 weeks). That is the macro set up I am personally focussed on. I don't trade the wiggles anymore but instead the secular cycle and the longer business cycle, but I am annoyed I missed the bond trade. That was a gift...and I stopped myself pulling the trigger because of being scarred from the last 2 times! The issue here is figuring out if this is a nearly-done event, or we have a short bounce and then a final leg lower, or re-test of those lows. The situation in the Middle East might well dictate that. It is too early to know but I for one am looking to add to my crypto and tech over the next week or so. Not looking to get the exact bottom...but just to get great prices for the Macro Summer/Fall period that we have started (but got sideswiped by Japan). I personally think of this as a violent shakeout and a reset of risk-taking leverage and that strong upside will be the feature of 2024/2025 overall. Thus to me, this is the last time to get in or fully positioned. I luckily have income so that allows me to add, eventhough I am max long...i.e I just get max'er long! The banana zone slipped on a banana skin, but its far from fatal, just some nasty bruising! I do think that this has all happened so fast that it will take time for a liquidity/policy response and we also know that every government and central bank wants a weaker dollar and lower rates, so they probably have a bias to let this stick for a bit before halting it. Eventual Fed cuts will usher in a weaker dollar period too, which helps build Macro Summer/Fall. Right now we are in the max fear zone. Hold on tight and have a plan that suits your risk tolerance and time horizon. Stay safe out there. Good things come to those who wait. Markets are never easy and a bull markets job is to try to throw you off. Zoom out. Relax. This too shall pass. This exact kind of mess is why the Dont Fuck This Up thesis is SO important. Remember: No leverage No FOMO Top 3 to 5 assets as main bag Self-custody (or multi-sig) with good wallet hygiene Only trade a small Degen bag <10% HODL over a longer time horizon Zoom out and remove the noise Expect 35% pullbacks frequently BTFD if you can #DFTU Those of you mainly in alts outside the top 3 are learning how risky they are. Ive tried hard to explain this. Crypto is risky enough as it is without your bags going down 80% in an early bull market correction! Yes, they can do well in a exponential rise but only if you own the right tokens, which isnt easy. Not selling anything. Looking for time and price to add and watching the spectacle. Getting this right can help you unfuck your future. If you dont think this is a 6 month+ event, then use it as a gift. Try to filter out the noise from those with shorter-term trading time horizons as they are playing a different game. I'll do a video later today or tomorrow.