CBB addict đ | Contributor to now defunct BIG EAST Coast Bias | Former HS coach | I live for March bracket pools
Dallas, TX
Joined December 2024
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@DALLASBRADEN209 Dallas, big Aâs fan here, Iâm going to be at Globe Life on Friday to see the boys â any chance I could catch you before or after and shake your hand? Let me know!
2026 Bracket Recap â I should probably call it a postmortem. My worst effort in at least a decade. My biggest mistake was just not knowing what to do with a UM team unlike any team I can ever remember. I can live with that. But I picked up some other learnings along the way.
Weâve got a classic case of âboth are trueâ:
- Michiganâs play style leads to more fouls/FTs than UConnâs does
- The refs significantly impacted the game in Michiganâs favor with bad calls
Citing season-long foul/FT statistics doesnât prove the refs werenât bad last night.
What happened to flop calls in college basketball? There was a time they were called a lot. I donât think I saw one this year. Were these taken out of the rule book? This needs to be re-prioritized.
Thatâs a disappointing end to the season, in my opinion. It appears that the best team won, but a hard team to get behind. I canât say enough about how tough UConn is.
Iâll say this before the championship game kicks off: What makes us so sure Michigan is far superior to UConn? Take St. Johnâs (who is a uniquely challenging opponent) away and the Huskies are 29-3 with wins over Duke, Ill, Mich St, Florida, and Kansas. Michigan is an analytics darling and their size jumps out at you. But as far as what matters â winning the games in front of you â UConn has just about matched them.
Iâm not making a prediction, just an observation. Seeing a lot of âMichigan would win 9 games out of 10 â takes. Shows how analytics-brained we have all become and often for good reason. But tonightâs game wonât be played on a spreadsheet.
Tulsa was my favorite Cinderella candidate. They are worse than USF but their style is more conducive to tournament play and upsets. Still bummed they couldnât win their conference tourney. Great team. American really should be a 2-3 bid league.
At what point do you wonder if Arizona might have benefited from their coach being locked in instead of job interviewing and contract negotiating over the last week?
Ainât no way people are ALREADY saying UConn is cooked on Monday. Some people canât learn anything.
2026 Final Four: NIL Mercenary Bands vs. Development Programs
An interesting lens through which to look at this Final Four is two matchups between the old school and the new school of roster construction.
Make no mistake, UConn and Arizona have money and they are playing the NIL/transfer game as you must to stay relevant in today's landscape. But there is a stark difference between how they've developed their roster compared to Illinois and Michigan.
Here's the breakdown of each rotation:
UConn â 2 first-year transfers, 0 former international pros, 4 players with 3+ years in program, 1 American freshman, 0 3-school players
Illinois â 2 first-year transfers, 3 former international pros, 0 players with 3+ years in program, 1 American freshman, 2 3-school players
Arizona â 0 first-year transfers, 2 former international pros, 2 players with 3+ years in program, 2 American freshmen, 0 3-school players
Michigan â 4 first-year transfers, 1 former international pro, 2 players with 3+ years in program, 1 American freshman, 1 3-school player
I would summarize each school's approach as follows:
UConn â Recruits freshmen and retains and develops them
Illinois â Imports international, professional talent
Arizona â Sources from everywhere, but retains and develops over multiple years
Michigan â Poaches high-major transfers
One disclaimer on Michigan â Dusty May hasn't been in his role long enough for us to know if this year's roster is going to be his M.O. or if it's just how things shook out this year.
Make your own judgments on ethics, sportsmanship, what the spirit of college basketball is or should be about, etc. As for what it might mean on the court, I see two rosters full of guys who have invested a lot into their schools, their coaches, and each other vs. two rosters full of guys who may not even remember what the front of their jersey says without a mirror.
I wonder if that will make any difference.
I donât care what did or didnât happen in the Hurley/Ayers interaction. If you want a technical foul called in that moment, youâre anti-sports. Fine him, suspend him if needed, whatever. But erasing what happened on the court wouldâve been a far worse crime than anything he did.
Something Iâm keeping an eye on in the Final Four â with a full week to prepare, scouting and preparation play a huge role. I think UConn and Michigan staffs are superior in the Xâs and Oâs department. I believe Arizona is the best team, but can Dusty May engineer their demise?
This is a good sign for the new era of Butler Hoops under Coach Ron Nored. Bizjack has some good qualities â but you will never have a good defensive team with him on the floor. Nored promised defense and toughness. This is a step in building the roster for just that.
NEWS: Butler guard Finley Bizjack plans to enter the @TransferPortal, source told @On3. â¨â¨The 6-4 junior averaged 17.1 PPG this season and was All-Big East Third Team. Represented by @GeorgeSLangberg of @GSLSportsGroup.
on3.com/news/butler-guard-fiâŚ
After sleeping on it, I have only one explanation. The basketball gods honored UConnâs comeback. The resilience demanded a reward. The ball ending up in Mullinsâ hands at that moment and him flushing a pure 40-footer after struggling all night could only be fate.
3/4 Dudes Theoryâ˘ď¸ approved teams are in the Final Four. Predicting March isnât simple, but maybe sometimes itâs more simple than you think. Gotta have dudes to go all the way.
In the age of KenPom and other analytics dominating the title contender conversation, there is something harder to measure but just as predictive as to who will win the championship.
Introducing Dudes Theoryâ˘ď¸:
The team that wins it all is always stacked with dudes. This may seem obvious, but what I mean to say is, itâs never a team that has 1-3 stars and a bunch of solid role players. Almost every team that goes all the way has a roster that makes you say whoa, this team is STACKED.
25 Florida - 6 DUDES
- WCJ
- Martin
- Richard
- Haugh
- Condon
- Chinyelu
24 UConn - 5 DUDES
- Newton
- Spencer
- Karaban
- Clingan
- Castle
23 UConn - 5 DUDES
- Sanogo
- Hawkins
- Newton
- Karaban
- Jackson
22 Kansas - 5 DUDES
- Agbaji
- Braun
- Wilson
- McCormack
- Martin
I could go on. Some examples of teams that seemed like serious contenders but did not pass the Dudes Theoryâ˘ď¸ requirements and fell short:
25 Duke - 2.5 DUDES
- Flagg
- Knueppel
- Proctor
25 Houston - 1 DUDE
- Cryer
24 Purdue - 2 DUDES
- Edey
- Smith
23 Alabama - 2.5 DUDES
- Miller
- Sears
- Quinerly
22 Gonzaga - 3.5 DUDES
- Timme
- Holmgren
- Nembhard
- Strawther
22 Arizona - 1 DUDE
- Mathurin
You get the idea. March is so tough that with foul trouble, injuries, off nights, great defensive schemes â you need a million ways to win and that requires DUDES.
So how do this yearâs title contenders stack up?
Arizona - 8 DUDES
- Bradley
- Burries
- Peat
- Krivas
- Awaka
- Kharchenkov
- Awaka
- DellâOrso
UConn - 5 DUDES
- Demary
- Ball
- Karaban
- Reed
- Mullins
Michigan - 4 DUDES
- Lendeborg
- Mara
- Johnson
- Cadeau
Florida - 4 DUDES
- Haugh
- Condon
- Chinyelu
- Lee
Duke - 2.5 DUDES
- Boozer
- Evans
- Ngongba
Houston - 2.5 DUDES
- Flemings
- Sharp
- Tugler
Iowa St. - 2 DUDES
- Momcilovic
- Jefferson
From this, we can clearly see that Duke, Houston, and Iowa St. are eliminated from contention.
Arizona, Michigan, UConn, and Florida are your only viable champions, per Dudes Theoryâ˘ď¸. As for which of those four will come out on top, there are arguments for each â but a whopping 8 DUDES for Arizona is going to be hard to bet against.
We must collectively never let that Mullins shot cause us to forget about the Tarris Reed MASTERCLASS we just witnessed. Dominated on offense, defense, and the glass. UConn is eliminated at least three times already without his incredible performances.
Mara being in foul trouble is massive because Michigan is just a normal team without him. Still a really good team, but not a âwhat do we do against this lineupâ team.