An American fantasy/horror writer in Germany. I talk about metals, energy, current events but am not an expert. The only advice I'll ever offer is on writing.
Joined January 2021
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Great thread that threatens becoming lost in my comments. Thank you @cmdtsjnky. Very granular, and I largely agree. I don't buy futures, but I think most producers will have a very profitable winter.
We shouldn't be getting serious draws this soon, period.
EscapeFromUtopia retweeted
"Mom can I read Hatchet?"
"No dear we have Hatchet at home."
The Hatchet at home:
Just a little more and we yet might get a positive comparison on EU LNG imports. I continue to hope for good news.
Adjusted for inflation, oil has been cheaper than it is right now for 55 of the last 75 years. Only the Ukraine War Spike, the boom years where demand outpaced supply in the 2000s, and 70's oil crisis were higher.
Today's disruption is worse than all of them. Higher.
Draws have BARELY started. Why do I care?
In 3 of 5 previous years reserves are slowly rising this time of year. In 2 they are flat. This is the earliest and sharpest fall by a month because of reduced imports.
It's not even cold yet. Nights dip below 0 where I live on Friday.
This is 365 days of data, and roughly the same October/November temperatures. Look how different these slopes are when you zoom in.
Last year Germany burned 8.4% of it's reserves in November. The year before it was 7.6%. We've burned 1% in 4 days and iit hasn't gotten cold yet.
Energy took a pounding this week, but look at where they are on a PE basis despite being near ATH. EQNR 8.7. XOM 17. TNZ 15.5.
I find EQNR especially baffling. It's bought back a third of its shares in 5 years and its paying 3.7% dividends.
I'm pretty happy with how #silver ended the week. It made it back in its wedge after daily/weekly RSI went oversold. Monthly is still pretty far above the long term capitulation point (red) but time will take care of that. For now its enough that daily momentum is trying to turn.
Taking a braod look at #silver. Weekly RSI says a bottom is around here somewhere, but momentum is in the toilet. Take a look at what those crossovers portend, historically.
$EQNR is back to the red all-time-break-out line. It's terrified to go above it. I don't care. Profits up. Volumes up, share count way down. On a MarketCap basis, its worth less than it was during the circled period, which makes no sense to me.
While $XOM has gone below it's current RSI number several times in the last couple of years, it's bottom is close at hand. Still overbought on weekly and monthly, but I don't think the trend has changed.
#Oil's bounce is making me wonder if I've misdrawing the bottom of the pennant. Higher would fit everything but the summer breakdown, and shorten it by quite a bit.
#TTF price worries continue, but I see no relief. Last year EU gas took a full month to drop 1% from peak. This year we did that in 8 days (28/10 to 5/11) and the rate is accelerating.
If you import less and use the same, reserves are used faster.
I know some think the dollar is about to nosedive and the euro will soar, but between energy and debt I don't see how that's possible. Look at the yellow highlight where we are. It doesn't look like it's trying to get back into its channel even a little.
Look at that waterfall. $TNZ almost hit a 10 month low. Worse than that measured in TTF.
People realy think the EU has enough gas now, huh? The only way that makes sense is if Russian pipes are about to reopen, or Qatar has started paying tribute to Iran for safe passage.
People are getting very excited about the TTF price drop, but JKM didn't drop?
Until some countries are priced out, this isn't over, and we're back to a .92 ratio. The last gas crsis peaked a 1.5, but I think at least 1.4 is likely. The channel top hasn't been touched in 3 years
