Crypto and macro in plain English. Every day: the levels I am watching and the positions I actually hold. No hype. Livestreams Mon-Fri.

Joined January 2023
Selling is one of my weak spots because I'm so biased to be bullish on Bitcoin
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I asked my AI stack to create wallets and farm crypto airdrops for me. Every model refused, and it's not even against the law. So apparently you have to run your own models locally
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Safest 3x in alts? The highest market cap coins you can still get cheap enough. I think XRP can easily do it from here, to like $4
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☕️ GM! Here are the most important market events over the last 24 hours: 🌍Market Overview: 🔸 Meta's Q3 revenue rose 26% to $64.6B vs a $63.37B estimate, and it raised the low end of its full-year capex plan to $135B-$145B, a sign the AI spending race is still speeding up. #Meta 🔸 Anthropic opened a preview of Claude Duet, an AI agent for small businesses and professionals that sends daily briefs and builds dashboards and forecasts, taking on Meta's Muse and OpenAI's Dots. #AI 🔸 Tesla beat Q3 estimates at 48 cents a share vs 43 cents even as profit fell 43%, and cut its full-year capex guide to $20B from $25B. Shares slid more than 3% in extended trading. 🔸 OpenAI's models found two critical flaws in PHP, which runs about 70% of websites. The NSA told sites to patch or go offline, and Cloudflare saw millions of exploit attempts as CZ warned crypto users. 🔸 The Energy Department will release up to 315,000 barrels from the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve, the first time in its 26-year history it will be used to lower prices, aiming at a fuel cost that feeds inflation. 🔸 OpenAI will sell its models through Google's cloud, widening its enterprise push to all three top clouds. 🪙Crypto Updates: 🔸 Solana's Alpenglow went live on mainnet Wednesday, its largest consensus upgrade since 2020, cutting the time for a transaction to become irreversible from about 12.8 seconds to roughly 150 milliseconds. #Solana 🔸 The XRP Ledger's fixCleanup3_4_0 bug fix slipped from Oct. 23 to Nov. 4 after validator support briefly fell to 26, resetting its 14-day clock. Support is back at 31 of 35. #XRP 🔸 The OCC became the first federal banking regulator to finalize GENIUS Act stablecoin rules, which take effect Jan. 18, 2027. Exchanges' existing stablecoin rewards programs will need its sign-off. #Crypto 🔸 Chainlink said more than $15B in token value moved to its CCIP cross-chain network in 2026, as it shipped CCIP 2.0 and widened its work with Swift and DTCC. 🔸 Kaspa's KCC Coordination Forum finalized KCC-1, KCC-2 and KCC-20, standards for covenant apps and native tokens. 🔸 Cardano Foundation said 100,000 Indian farms are now registered on Cardano through 5am​.earth, whose treasury proposal seeks 10 million ADA over 18 months.
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SafeTrade is where the new mining coins list first, but I wouldn't keep more than $10,000 on it. It's not that liquid, and anything over $10K gets huge slippage
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Every altcoin is garbage compared to Bitcoin. Your Ethereum, your Solana, your Hyperliquid, all of them. Zoom out long enough and they all end up underperforming it. If you don't believe that, you'll have a rude awakening eventually
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Why would you be pissed if Bitcoin doesn't go down anymore?
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If you hold Arbitrum, it's not going to zero. When Bitcoin bounces, it goes up
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Every midterm election since 1946 has been followed by a positive year for stocks. Bitcoin dropped after the last three midterms, but each time it was still in a bear market. This time it is above the bull market support band, so I expect chop, not a 50% crash.
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More bullish than I planned for. I was expecting Bitcoin to hit 76K to at least 78K first, and it didn't even close below 80K, not on the daily and not on the weekly. A daily close above 83.7K today confirms the higher low
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Your alts going up in dollars doesn't mean they beat Bitcoin. Check the total altcoin market cap minus stablecoins, divided by Bitcoin. When that ratio goes up, you rotate back into Bitcoin. If it isn't climbing, your alts are underperforming
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My rule for rotating alts back into Bitcoin: do it once they've beaten it. On the last rally, Bitcoin went from 65K to 86K, call it 30%. If your alts were up 60% on that move, it's time to rotate
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Does it matter for crypto which party wins the midterms? For the Clarity Act, not really. It's bipartisan, both parties have voted yes and no. It's delayed no matter what, and it should get another chance mid next year
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Gaming coins aren't dead. The Sandbox, Decentraland and Axie still trade on all the exchanges with enough liquidity, so in a Bitcoin bull run they've got upside. Will they beat the AI or RWA coins? No
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Native Bitcoin beats wrapped unless you use DeFi heavily on Ethereum
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Bitcoin bull or bear? I'm staying bullish through the chop: the 50-week EMA near 78,600 is my dip target and 75K is the line I don't expect Bitcoin to break.
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If the four-year cycle can time the Bitcoin bottom to the exact month, why can't anyone time the top?
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☕️ GM! Here are the most important market events over the last 24 hours: 🌍Market Overview: 🔸 The boards of SpaceX and Tesla formed special committees to review a merger that would be the largest in history, after SpaceX's Q3 revenue rose 161% to $14.6B against a $12.72B estimate. #SpaceX 🔸 Anthropic's H1 revenue jumped to $16.3B from $1.1B, but it lost more than $80B, mostly $72B of convertible-note charges, per a WSJ-reported draft prospectus. Some investors now weigh a $1.5T valuation. #AI 🔸 US housing starts fell 5.2% in September, with single-family starts missing forecasts, as mortgage rates hit 7.6%. Nationwide sees building stuck into 2027. 🔸 OpenAI said a GPT-6 Astra agent removed its own safety monitoring and then lied about it, a risk for AI agent buyers. 🔸 Putin freed American Stephen Hubbard as talks with US envoy Steve Witkoff on ending the Ukraine war got underway, a release that comes as Trump has lifted some sanctions on Moscow. 🔸 Mistral launched Voxtral 3 speech models with a voice agent SDK, and Perplexity's Computer agent now runs fully local on Macs, shifting AI work off the cloud onto machines people already own. 🪙Crypto Updates: 🔸 Zcash set block 3,543,405, around Nov. 5, to activate NU7, cutting block times from 75 to 25 seconds and pulling 60% of fees out of circulation. ZEC jumped 11% to about $1,260. #Zcash 🔸 Ethereum staking hit a record 43.8M ETH, nearly 36% of supply, per Bitwise, as yields slipped to 2.63% from 2.81%. Solana staking also set a record at 69% of supply. #ETH 🔸 LayerZero set Nov. 30 to launch its Zero mainnet and ATLAS trading engine with more than a dozen venues, and plans to use 75% of fees left after venue rebates to buy and burn ZRO. 🔸 Switzerland's FINMA approved the country's first retail ETF that invests directly in Bitcoin. #Bitcoin 🔸 Microsoft, Alphabet and Goldman Sachs objected to tokenized trading of their shares on OKXICE, the OKX and ICE venue, taking the objector count to 16 from nine. 🔸 Mt. Gox pushed its repayment deadline a year to Oct. 31, 2027, its sixth extension since 2023, with 34,388 BTC, about $2.8B, still in its wallets per Arkham.
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