1) If you have no edge, correct position size is 'don't buy”. 2) Position sizing is determined by downside. 3) All great investing records employed leverage.

Bikini Bottom
Joined May 2010
Yup - better than expected
Sept per my monthly breakdown doesn't end until next week but I thought I'd post the Federal tax withholding data now since it is Labor Data week. After a summer lull - employment incomes are definitely picking up again. FWIW.
1
5
1
64
13,517
Sept per my monthly breakdown doesn't end until next week but I thought I'd post the Federal tax withholding data now since it is Labor Data week. After a summer lull - employment incomes are definitely picking up again. FWIW.
8
22
5
164
25,311
Aggregate employment income (using Federal payroll tax withholding remits) is final for Aug. The total July-Aug pacing still slow but rebounding a little in the last 2 weeks of August. FWIW.
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12
145
12,312
A reminder that July and August comps look weird due to calendarization (ie where Aug 1st fell in 2025 vs 2026). That's why I add the combined July-Aug comp at the bottom outside of the table.
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1
20
4,364
Given the surprise labor market data of a couple of weeks ago... I said I would give a flash after 2 weeks of August are in the books. The key is to look at the very bottom row outside the table that combines July with Aug mtd. The headline - employment earnings still looks slow and sluggish. We'll see how August finishes up in 2 weeks.
I wanted to wait for a couple of days after July month-end to post Federal tax withholding data to get around a small timing issue. The last day of any month (for which tax amounts show up on the first business day of the next month + Mondays are typically big collection days). 2025 had Aug 1st on a Friday while 2026 had Aug 1st (actually 3rd) appear in the next month. So closing the month on Friday, July 31st would've penalized 2026 and made it look like a big drop in collections when actually its just timing. Even so, with the benefit of this Monday and Tuesday's numbers - things are definitely weakening. I would categorize it as slowing based on numbers at the very bottom for 22 days (to get around the timing issue for comps). FWIW.
15
15
1
169
25,045
My feelings about the $HQI CEO this morning:
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1
11
7,092
This morning's 10-Q confirms what you had first heard here 3 weeks ago. $BRK bought back ~$7.2B of common stock in Q2+July (0.8% of common o/s). A very positive development.
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122
18,846
This morning's 10-Q confirms what you had first heard here 3 weeks ago. $BRK bought back ~$7.2B of common stock in Q2+July (0.8% of common o/s). A very positive development.
I haven't seen this $BRK tidbit picked up on, but buried inside Buffett's annual giving 13D disclosure is something very interesting... sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/… Using WEB's 13.2% economic ownership, it looks to me like the total $BRK share count (using equivalent B-shares outstanding) dropped almost 1% since last Q. That is a notable pick-up in share repurchases & is at a level not seen since 2021. The pandemic was a period when Buffett was buying back shares at an annual pace of 3-5% which was the most aggressive buying in BRK history. It appears the new regime under Abel is going to be perhaps more aggressive with excess capital returning back to shareholders. We'll see - but I'm hopeful and this is a welcome development.
15
11
5
117
47,791
Interesting what a week of soft labor market data does to Sept Fed rate hike odds. Went from "2-out-of-3 chance of a hike" - to - "60% chance Fed holds rates steady"
3
6
1
63
9,271
Unexpectedly? Not if you know where to look .... 😎
I wanted to wait for a couple of days after July month-end to post Federal tax withholding data to get around a small timing issue. The last day of any month (for which tax amounts show up on the first business day of the next month + Mondays are typically big collection days). 2025 had Aug 1st on a Friday while 2026 had Aug 1st (actually 3rd) appear in the next month. So closing the month on Friday, July 31st would've penalized 2026 and made it look like a big drop in collections when actually its just timing. Even so, with the benefit of this Monday and Tuesday's numbers - things are definitely weakening. I would categorize it as slowing based on numbers at the very bottom for 22 days (to get around the timing issue for comps). FWIW.
11
8
5
177
40,636
I wanted to wait for a couple of days after July month-end to post Federal tax withholding data to get around a small timing issue. The last day of any month (for which tax amounts show up on the first business day of the next month + Mondays are typically big collection days). 2025 had Aug 1st on a Friday while 2026 had Aug 1st (actually 3rd) appear in the next month. So closing the month on Friday, July 31st would've penalized 2026 and made it look like a big drop in collections when actually its just timing. Even so, with the benefit of this Monday and Tuesday's numbers - things are definitely weakening. I would categorize it as slowing based on numbers at the very bottom for 22 days (to get around the timing issue for comps). FWIW.
12
26
5
215
79,548
I guess that sleepy small cap MN company just woke up…
$NVEC -- sleepy, small-cap MN industrial sensor/coupler tech company crushes Q3 earnings. - revenues + 59% vs py. (chip avail. helps) - 57% net after-tax profit margin. - $11 cash per share/no debt vs $48 share price. - 8.3% dividend yield. - up 12% A-H sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/…
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1
51
15,428
Looks like the financial media are (finally) catching on.... 🧐 barrons.com/articles/berkshi…
I haven't seen this $BRK tidbit picked up on, but buried inside Buffett's annual giving 13D disclosure is something very interesting... sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/… Using WEB's 13.2% economic ownership, it looks to me like the total $BRK share count (using equivalent B-shares outstanding) dropped almost 1% since last Q. That is a notable pick-up in share repurchases & is at a level not seen since 2021. The pandemic was a period when Buffett was buying back shares at an annual pace of 3-5% which was the most aggressive buying in BRK history. It appears the new regime under Abel is going to be perhaps more aggressive with excess capital returning back to shareholders. We'll see - but I'm hopeful and this is a welcome development.
4
4
55
16,741
Margin! Right from day 1, Buffett understood how to structurally engineer high returns! Thus, his 2 rules: 1) never lose money, and 2) always remember rule 1
A sneak-peek inside Warren Buffett's personal portfolio... Notice anything interesting?
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4
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105,322
I haven't seen this $BRK tidbit picked up on, but buried inside Buffett's annual giving 13D disclosure is something very interesting... sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/… Using WEB's 13.2% economic ownership, it looks to me like the total $BRK share count (using equivalent B-shares outstanding) dropped almost 1% since last Q. That is a notable pick-up in share repurchases & is at a level not seen since 2021. The pandemic was a period when Buffett was buying back shares at an annual pace of 3-5% which was the most aggressive buying in BRK history. It appears the new regime under Abel is going to be perhaps more aggressive with excess capital returning back to shareholders. We'll see - but I'm hopeful and this is a welcome development.
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22
10
217
68,710
Lots of good stuff here on the US consumer...
Usually a lurker on here but dipping my toes briefly into the "k-shaped economy" discourse. At PNC we track the debit & credit spending trends of a fixed cohort of ~4 million households. Long story short: lower-income spending/balance sheet trends have been on a tear in 2026
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65,263
$GDOT Shareholders of both companies approve the deal. Now we wait for the Fed (& state bank regulators to approve it). Should close this summer. businesswire.com/news/home/2…
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6,574