George Washington PhD. From the campaign world professionally. A mixture of food and politics. Living in Modiin, Israel
Israel
Joined September 2008
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There is this thing where everytime something bad happens Jews have to prove they are good or belong in a space. Guilty until proven innocent. Absolutely exhausted by it and just beyond caring what people think
UTJ MKs think Israel trying to draft yeshiva students is "worse than Nazi Germany". Let's not pretend this is a worse statement
One example of why unevenly counted votes can skew the results is Rahat. They had 82% turnout yesterday with 35,673 voters. In 2022 they had 61% turnout, an increase of more than 12,000 voters in a city with 91% support for Arab parties.
At 8am there are 0 votes reported there
With about two-thirds of Modiin (my city) counted, the Netanyahu coalition is 4 percentage points down from 2022, 8 percentage points down if you remove the 4% for Winter
The threshold at the moment is looking like it will be 185,151
With 54% of regular kalpiot counted the Reservists are at 2.64% and Winter is at 1.65%
So the Reservists need 3.85% of the remaining vote to get above the threshold. A tall order but not impossible
Will Cubbison וויל קביסון retweeted
The final voter turnout in Israel's national elections among IDF soldiers reached 79.9%, the military says.
The IDF says this is an increase of 6.2% compared to the previous elections in 2022.
Conscripts, career soldiers, and reservists began voting a week ago at over 890 polling stations deployed to military bases across the country and beyond Israel's borders, including at army posts in the Gaza Strip, Lebanon, and Syria.
A reminder this is 54% of regular polling booths with another 650,000 votes they won't start counting until Thursday
This would be important....if the vote counting was distributed evenly. It is not
In 2022 the Netanyahu bloc got 64 seats from effectively 50.1% of the vote. This would have them sitting at more like 44%
But last time Meretz and Balad were under the threshold. The Opposition will have fewer wasted votes this time.
Polls closed 3 hours ago. We have the votes of 15 voting booths, all tiny single kalpi towns.
Another 12,000 to go. I don't think we are getting anything substantive tonight
Will Cubbison וויל קביסון retweeted
Assistant to Ben Gvir responds to exit poll results: 'of course I'm disappointed, the people of Israel are morons".
Bibi's coalition was slashed from 68 seats to 50 in the exit polls.
This was effectively the 2013 government before Bibi blew it up. Since then he has taken Likud in an increasingly populist authoritarian direction, and become inseparable from the extremist Right and Haredim.
Will Cubbison וויל קביסון retweeted
In other words, a little under 87% of eligible Israeli residents voted today
Will Cubbison וויל קביסון retweeted
#IsraelElection
Israel’s Central Elections Committee: Voter turnout reached 77.7% by 10 p.m., the highest at this hour since 2001, up 7.1 percentage points from the previous election. 5,695,682 Israelis voted.
Polls are closed, counting is underway, and official results will be released gradually.
A lot of smart people have this view of Netanyahu created by decades in politics of him as unconquerable. Of course the Opposition will collapse and come bowing and scraping to him, how else could it happen?
But there are a lot of reasons to not think that
Will Cubbison וויל קביסון retweeted
A critical question to understand the political developments in the coming weeks- which parties fear most the results of a second election campaign?
RT @eranh75_eran: מה רוצים מצביעי גוש השינוי? סקר שערכנו בשעה האחרונה מראה באופן ברור שרוב מצביעי גוש השינוי מעוניין בממשלה בראשות אייזנקו…