James Morrison

Heavy showers, embedded thunderstorms and heavy rain at times increasing during Monday into Tuesday. A complex cut off low is meandering over the central Tasman, with multiple fronts and troughs slowly moving down the upper North Island from today until late Tuesday. Expect 40 to 100mm of rain with potentially falls of 150mm+ around the far north district over the next 48 hours. Heaviest falls likely on Tuesday.

Rain, then cold air and a possible cyclone developing in the tropics. Expect 10 to 20mm of rain to fall across the upper North island today. Then some wintery dry cold air arrives on Friday with a cool sunny weekend ahead. Meanwhile the first tracked tropical low of the season is spinning, named 92P is just to the north-east of Samoa. High pressure developing over NZ will push it in a south-east direction over the next few days. There is now a medium chance it could develop into a tropical cyclone by the weekend before it transitions to a hybrid subtropical system near the Cook Islands. No Impact expected for NZ.