philadelphia
Joined January 2025
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Claude studies like these are always 10,000 pages long, seem legit enough, but the problem is whoever is publishing them clearly can't be bothered to proofread the whole thing themselves.
Otherwise they'd realize the AI always puts in some dumbass caveat at the end like this
Leverage for Prediction Markets will never be big.
At best it's a niche product.
Each dot is a type of Polymarket trader with 5x leverage, priced so the lender breaks even. Further right = more of them end up better off. Higher = the lender makes money on them. Bigger = more of the volume.
No group reaches 50%. In every one, most traders end up worse off with leverage than without.
Now look at the two dots furthest right, pros and sports bettors. Both are below zero: the lender loses money on them.
The highest dots? Retail and bonders, the people who want leverage most and get hurt by it.
And the giant dot is whales, almost three-quarters of all the money. They're sitting on cash. They don't need a loan.
So it loses money on the traders it helps and makes money on the ones it hurts. That's a niche, not a market.
The audience for leverage is thin / no in the market yet.
Full case study in comments
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Going to TOKEN2049 Singapore?
We’re hosting a curated Oktoberfest event on Oct 8 for the prediction market crowd.
Good beer, good food, and a chance to meet people across the space.
Spots are limited. Apply here ↓
luma.com/gptr5rfu
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Our smart contracts have been audited by @zenith256, with all findings resolved and fixes verified.
Thanks to the Zenith team for their thorough review as we prepare for launch.
Zenith Auditors recently completed an audit for Lattica, the liquidity layer of informational finance.
All findings have been resolved.
Huge shoutout to the @Lattica team for their commitment to security!
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In an hour, the guys from Lattica will be live on air @SteveFlanders22 & @wkflanders
xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1DGLdZjpN…
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What happens when you add leverage on top?
Tomorrow, with the Lattica team, we're breaking down why prediction markets need leverage, how to manage risk when prices move in seconds, and where leverage is a genius move vs. a straight path to losing it all.
We'll open real trades live, hunt a Fed market ahead of Wednesday's meeting, and go through the strategies most traders are still missing.
PredictTime LIVE guests:
@steveflanders22 - CEO, Lattica
@wkflanders - CTO, Lattica
September 15, 4 PM UTC
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Glad to say our thesis papers are now published to the public
There’s so much alpha locked in each paper showing how much it takes to solve some of the hardest pains current prediction market infrastructure face and how we solved them.
Read that and more: uselotus.xyz/thesis
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apply to lattica
we're hiring for two more roles @Lattica
1) full stack engineer ($150-220k, 0-0.5%)
2) product designer ($80-120k, 0-0.5%)
both roles will have a lot of autonomy to cook. the best fits are people who crave responsibility, not a to-do list.
apply at lattica.finance/careers
If you're into ui/ux, api architecture, devops, mlops, lakehouse + data engineering, protocol design, consensus algos 👀, or all of the above, then we want you
Come cook with us
we're hiring for two more roles @Lattica
1) full stack engineer ($150-220k, 0-0.5%)
2) product designer ($80-120k, 0-0.5%)
both roles will have a lot of autonomy to cook. the best fits are people who crave responsibility, not a to-do list.
apply at lattica.finance/careers
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the team we're building
Crypto is about solving real problems.
Prediction markets have a big one: capital efficiency. You're forced to choose between the markets you want and the size you can take.
@lattica fixes that. Trade any market, with the leverage you need, right up to resolution.
Excited to be joining the team as Head of Growth
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Crypto is about solving real problems.
Prediction markets have a big one: capital efficiency. You're forced to choose between the markets you want and the size you can take.
@lattica fixes that. Trade any market, with the leverage you need, right up to resolution.
Excited to be joining the team as Head of Growth
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from the moment i spoke with @SteveFlanders22 @wkflanders , it was obvious they were built different
-clear first principles thinking
-intensely passionate about their domain expertise
-grinded consistently, exhausted all alternatives to arrive at an optimal solution
there is no doubt @lattica will be at the frontier of leverage within prediction markets