Futures Trader since 2003.

Joined April 2019
Flash1978 retweeted
🇨🇳The National Development and Reform Commission and two other ministries issued guidance to further improve price-formation mechanisms and to promote quality upgrades and expanded coverage of inclusive elderly-care services. (mktnews.com/flashDetail.html…)
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I'm going to a seminar, with my son: "What You Need to Know to Make the Right Career Choice for You" Then I'm going to tell my son to fade everything that's been said there, probably. I'm not at all sure about this university thing, anymore.
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Here's a fact to drive home just how incredible the current tanker market is: It is now cheaper to book a standard Falcon 9 launch ($74m) than it is to take a VLCC from the USG to the Far East (~$80m). #OOTT #tankers
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Trajectory of Stress on the House: Ω(t)=Weight/Capacity+Iran Levers Weight↑=(MaturityWall↑+PileOnDebt↑)×Yields↑+YieldVelocity↑ Capacity↓=FedRoom↓×(FedParkingLot↓+Growth?+ForeignBuyers↓+DealersCapacity↓) Iran Levers↑=Energy↑+Bonds↑+OnFed↑ Ω(t0)​<Ω(Nov)​<Ω(2027​)
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Flash1978 retweeted
🎯🎯🎯🎯🎯🎯🎯🎯🎯🎯🎯Wooow… now the FT is saying what I was saying in March about Hormuz, and what I said last year about Greenland — then repeated when I linked Greenland and Panama Canal and the Red Sea to Hormuz. @ErikSTownsend might recall all those discussions we had on @MacroVoices. My subscribers and all those attended my keynote speeches would remember all the details. What I said then was extremely unpopular. Now it is mainstream. Rana Foroohar argues in the FT article that Washington and Beijing are in a modern “Great Game,” like Britain and Russia in the 19th century. Both sides prefer to get to a territory, chokepoint or alliance first rather than fight each other directly. She calls this a “forward strategy”: it avoids outright war between the two powers, but it produces intrigues, minor battles and proxy fights. In that frame she groups three flashpoints together: “The war in Ukraine, the weaponisation of the Strait of Hormuz and the simmering tensions over Taiwan are all part and parcel of the new Great Game.” Hormuz is treated as one of those peripheral contests — a chokepoint being used as leverage — not as a direct US–China battlefield. As for Greenland, the map below is from the same article. I said Greenland’s resources are not worth the effort, but the trade routes are. Control of the Panama Canal, the Red Sea, Hormuz, and Greenland are all related.
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Flash1978 retweeted
Zervos advising Bessent, oh no 🥹
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Jensen has been behind the idea that chips are an "investable asset class". We know he's going all out in creating financing structures for the chips, and now... he's looking to insure against losses. Why? Because the chips may not cover the value of the loans. 🧐 "One idea under discussion is insurance against losses on loans to upstart cloud computing companies, or “neoclouds”, if they default and the Nvidia chips pledged against their debt cannot be resold for enough to repay lenders." - FT
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Trump on AI risks being overblown, to some extent true $nvda
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Flash1978 retweeted
The race for AGI Script: Sherpa by Pocket FM Video: Seedance 2.5
🤖 Made with AI
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Big Short investor Steve Eisman says the AI labs know they have no moats and are manufacturing a crisis to get regulation that hands them a duopoly "I think this is all nonsense." [ You think it's all nonsense? ] "All nonsense. I think that there's something else completely going on here. ... What I think is happening is that token maxing is over. The open weight models are taking big market share. I think these companies are very nervous. They realize that there are no moats around their business whatsoever, and they're trying to manufacture a crisis that will create regulation, and that they think they can then manipulate to create the moats, to create the duopoly that they want." [ Wow. ] "That's what I think is going on." "Honestly, I think this whole Terminator thing is garbage. That's for sure."
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Flash1978 retweeted
The FOMC will decide tomorrow how many rate hikes are needed to re-open Hormuz 🥹
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Flash1978 retweeted
Warren Buffett is considered the ultimate fundamental investor, but people misunderstand what made him successful. Early in his career, Buffett had a genuine information edge. Financial data was difficult to obtain, few investors carefully studied balance sheets, and cheap companies could remain undiscovered for years. Simply reading every annual report and calculating the real value of a business gave him an enormous advantage. Today, everyone has the same numbers. Every financial statement is instantly available. Thousands of analysts, algorithms, and artificial intelligence systems can compare valuations within seconds. Knowing that a company trades at eight times earnings or below book value is no longer an edge. It is merely information. This may explain why many investors influenced by Buffett, including Bill Ackman, David Einhorn, and other traditional value investors, have struggled to consistently outperform in recent years. They learned the visible part of Buffett’s process: study the accounts, calculate intrinsic value, and buy when the price appears cheap. But once everybody learned the method, much of its advantage disappeared. Buffett himself understood this transition. With Charlie Munger’s influence, he moved away from buying statistically cheap but mediocre businesses and toward buying exceptional companies whose future value could not be fully captured by a spreadsheet. The edge moved from quantity to quality. The most important questions today are often the ones that cannot be answered precisely with numbers. Is the chief executive changing? Is the culture improving? Do customers genuinely love the product? Is public perception completely disconnected from reality? Is management about to become more disciplined? Has the market misunderstood how people will behave? These things cannot always be placed neatly into a model, but they matter no less than revenue, margins, and cash flow. In many cases, they matter more because the numbers only describe what has already happened, while qualitative changes determine what happens next. This is why most investment posts on X are worthless. They repeat numbers, announce that something is cheap, and present publicly available information as analysis. But everyone can see those numbers. Every analyst knows them. Every algorithm has already processed them. Every artificial intelligence system can explain the same apparent valuation within seconds. Repeating the obvious is not an edge. The modern investor’s advantage is not having more data. It is understanding what the data cannot yet show. The edge is recognizing a change in human behavior, management, psychology, positioning, or perception before that change appears in the financial statements. Numbers tell us where the company has been. Qualitative judgment tells us where it may be going.
$SNAP The past is a fact. The future is unknown. I read many of the comments on my recent Snap posts, and almost all of them relate to the company’s past performance. I won’t argue with any of it. A lot of people also lost money along the way, so naturally, there is emotion attached to the name. But past judgments and past pain can prevent you from seeing what is happening in the present. And the present is where change first appears. Green shoots do not guarantee a big tree. The future is still unknown. Google has to work incredibly hard just to remain amazing. Snap does not need to become amazing. It only needs to go from badly managed to decent. If Snap becomes merely decent, the stock can double.
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My dick is so long it touches the ground after adjusting for lying face down
“Anthropic’s gross margins are above 80% before accounting for revenue shared with distribution partners, including Amazon, and the cost of training its models.” Wow.
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Flash1978 retweeted
We must be getting close to a "Liz Truss Meme Bottom"😆
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Flash1978 retweeted
Replying to @fejau_inc
did the other $900 billion decide they didn't want to?
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Flash1978 retweeted
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Me and the boys heading out to buy all the above ground available silver after hearing trump is giving out over $1,000,000,000,000 in stimulus checks
🤖 Made with AI
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I resigned from Bloomberg today. I spent the last three years turning routine market volatility into existential crises at both Bloomberg and Reuters. Neither company is acting responsibly. They are racing straight to maximum-engagement doomerism and gambling with our lives. More thoughts below. 🧵
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Flash1978 retweeted
The nutz move is for Dems to offer $10k, force Trump to raise and crash the bond market…
BREAKING: President Trump says he will issue a $5,000 "dividend" to every adult citizen in the US if the Republicans win the midterm elections. There are currently ~245 million US citizens age 18+, meaning this dividend would cost ~$1.2 trillion. This would mark the biggest economic stimulus payment since the pandemic.
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Flash1978 retweeted
노엘 목소리에서 구슬 굴러가는 소리가 나는데 어카죠... 첫 소절부터 마지막까지 모든 게 완벽해 나 이거 듣고 529000번째 사랑에 빠졌어요 정말 사랑해
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