Partner @slow. I underwrite reasonably unreasonable futures, find where the value will concentrate, and help build the companies that capture it.

The Bay
Joined May 2009
Replacement cycle coming.
There is no way on earth Palo Alto networks will protect me from an AGI hacker. I expect the labs to start. to launching cybersecurity products soon. There’s a lot of synergy there because they get to make the threat and the solution at the same time. Everyone will have to pay protection money.
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AMEN
All SaaS founders looked back at the business model of on-prem software with envy and nostalgia. All AI founders will look back at SaaS with envy and nostalgia. Customers will rejoice.
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There is a reason that the best performing athletes really use the off season well.
"Get comfortable being uncomfortable" is a terrible long-term strategy. It's necessary in certain seasons. Business is hard. But it shouldn't turn into the default. In the Navy, we had a term for this: the normalization of deviance. Most entrepreneurs I know have discomfort handled. The harder skill is getting comfortable being comfortable.
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Damn they move quick
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Reading too much venture 'analysis' can feel a little like a playing mad libs until you land on whatever analogy fits a massive price tag
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Will Quist retweeted
😂
At some point you have to ask how serious these types of asks are: 1. You see them all the time 2. They sound grandiose (price insensitive) 3. Very opaque counterparty info sharing Then you: 1. Make intros, which are blown on account of them either not knowing what they want, not being serious, or not actually being blanketly price insensitive as they claim. 2. Get caught up in some four-to-six guy deep broker chain of guys who are all rushing to find the colo space or supply tranches under the auspices of some very real “buyer” If it were an educated buyer, with serious interest, and not price discerning, the g1 — the guy one-hop away from them, that they talk to should conduct the affairs in order and pocket the spread. But for whatever reason it’s constantly not that. Either the g1 doesn’t have the juice and is looking for a gN that does or (more likely) the g1 doesn’t actually have a captive counterparty (buyer) and is competing against n other g1’s and *their* whisper networks. Too many non-circs, too many mndas, too few captive counterparties. Welcome to the age of deal making, you should see parallels to the Gilded Age and if you don’t, you haven’t been doing your homework. Please get in touch if you are also a student of history. Always looking for shrewd folks that can spot rhyming patterns across time.
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If someone is trying to negotiate equity comp with you in terms of "dollars at work" you're getting the wool pulled over your eyes
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One thing I've had a hard time accepting in our new narrative dominated world: You can earn a reputation for being visionary by doing something people believe will work. If it turns out you were wrong, you can keep the reputation. Once people buy the story that you have great judgment, they start using it to explain your decisions. Building something was visionary. Shutting it down was disciplined. Either way, the reputation gets stronger.
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Periodic reminder. Trading and investing are both amazing ways to make money. Unless you confuse one for the other. Than it's a great way to cause a lot of pain.
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I am old enough to remember when platforms having a recruiting firm was super key and valuable and gots lots of flowers from everyone.
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Will Quist retweeted
Replying to @sundeep
It would be quite helpful for NVIDIA to provide the market detailed ROIC case studies on internal deployment (i.e., capital invested in internal AI infrastructure/tools versus quantified after-tax operating returns at the company level) There is no firm better positioned to do so than NVIDIA.
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The large capital players in the private markets functionally have no opportunity cost on any given dollar, LPs reload them nearly automatically. That explains a lot.
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Will Quist retweeted
“There is surely nothing quite so useless as doing with great efficiency what should not be done at all.” Peter Drucker in 1963 talking about AI in 2026
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Winning tweet
Only two parties are set up to make money from neoclouds: private credit funds and NVIDIA.
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Will Quist retweeted
I dont know who needs to hear this but a private company floating revenue “guidance” to the press ~30 days before its supposed IPO is not a sign of confidence. If the numbers could carry the S-1 on their own, nobody would need to presell them through the media Plan accordingly
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The Context Acquisition Company @AcquireTokens
data selling is the hottest business on the internet right now. • MicroAGI: $100M ARR (6 months) • Mercor: $2B run rate (from $1M in ~24 months) • Surge AI: $1.4B run rate • Handshake AI: $1.1B run rate (16 months) • Scale AI: ~$2B run rate Labs have infinite GPUs, but zero proprietary data left to scrape.
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Good day to bring this up again.
What would actually have to happen for the market to decide the frontier labs just aren’t that great of businesses? Models converge and are commodities? That’s expected. Growth slows? That’s ok, huge installed base. Margins suck? Investing for the future. Capex explodes again and again? Moat. Delay the IPO? Too focused on the mission. These might end up being incredible businesses. It’s just a little wild that every piece of bad news somehow becomes evidence for the bull case.
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The word for that model is ads (billed as CPA or % of GMV, which is how most ecommerce ads are run). Just like crypto had to rebrand to 'stablecoins' to get normie acceptance, AI will rebrand ads to something else for the same reason.
i strongly don’t subscribe to the idea that personal ai agents will monetize through ads. the entire value of a personal agent comes from the user trusting that it is acting in their best interest. that trust starts to break the second recommendations are influenced by whichever advertiser pays the most for placement. a much more likely model is that agents monetize through the transactions they drive. i predict that eventually a massive commerce network gets built that aggregates merchants and funnels agentic spend through one layer. that network negotiates discounted pricing and merchant-funded rewards, then distributes those economics back to the agents driving the transaction. consumers get better deals and agents get paid without needing to charge users a monthly subscription. we already see versions of this model today: card networks like Visa created an economic layer where banks earn revenue every time a consumer makes a purchase and a transaction flows through their network (known as interchange). a similar layer will eventually be built specifically for agentic commerce. if personal agents end up influencing trillions of dollars in consumer spend, the company that becomes the default transaction network will become insanely valuable. every agent plugs into it, merchants compete for access to demand, and the network that sit in the middle takes a cut of the economics.
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A+ job weaponizing narrative.
The new era of American seapower starts with Arsenal-2: the biggest investment in a new American shipyard since World War II.
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Will Quist retweeted
Hey, look, it’s a healthcare store…
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