Storm chaser and photographer. Live-tweeting random thoughts of the day. Building @chase_archive

CA ➡️ CO ➡️ OK
Joined July 2008
Still can't believe this happened. Still can't believe this is a photo I took. 📍Wellfleet, NE 6/16/25
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Jim Tang retweeted
For fuck’s sake
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FWIW, TC landfalls in Japan on/after the last week of October are exceedingly rare. Only 3 in a 70-year history, and the dropoff begins on Oct 1. This time of year, the Asian NE monsoon typically strips TC's before they can get as far north/west as Japan. That should've been the red flag re: the Deepmind solutions for Champi.
Are GDMs Working Right? : On 18z Oct 19 as well it is clear GDM FNV3 accounted for Taiwan, whereas Physics-based models did not, note every single output differentiates farther West, this + West shift slowly is why synoptically and mesoscale GDMs demonstrated TC Env.
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Anyway I called this out a few days ago before doing the statistical analysis. At the end of the day, it looks like a scenario between the dynamical and ML guidance ended up being the right call! xitter.cf/wxmann/status/21122404…
The track forecast for #Champi is fascinating. On one hand, it's hard to imagine this 500mb pattern without a recurvature, and Google Deepmind explicitly forecasts this. On the other hand, if Champi wanders too close to Taiwan, rapid weakening from the surge of stable postfrontal northerlies and land interaction, and lee cyclone development in the Taiwan Strait will force the track west. This is kind of oddball dynamical situation I could see the physics-based guidance handling better than machine-learning guidance. Hard to bet against the GFS/ECMWF consensus <5 days out. Whatever happens, it'll be a good test of physics vs. AI in a challenging forecast situation!
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You know 2026 is whack when all this controversy's going on for a tornado event in Arizona of all places
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If you drove west to east across WY on 6/12/17 you would've gone from near-freezing at Evanston... to 80's in Rawlins... to tornadic supercells once you approached the NE border. (An update of Chase Archive I'm still working on backfilling, but I thought this was super cool)
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But in all seriousness hope everyone in the town is okay
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Nominative Determinism
(1/2)Between about 6:45-9:00AM today, an estimated 2” fell on the headwaters of Gould Wash! That was enough to send a flood wave down the Wash and into the town of Hurricane.
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In today’s news, I think we need to cancel @SirlinJohn more often for all the good sh*t he sees
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Unironically, I like today's setup better for AZ than yesterday's
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well this is quite suboptimal
Whats happening right now is probably way worse than the Hugging Face incident. AI-powered attacks are hitting real organizations while major platforms disclose breaches and critical flaws. - Microsoft reports AI agents targeting hundreds of organizations, reaching privileged cloud access in under three hours in multiple cases. It attributes the ConnectWise compromise to the same group. - CrowdStrike documented four operators running successful AI-agent campaigns. One compromised at least 15 Argentine healthcare organizations. - PHP2Shell: AI helped turn longstanding PHP flaws into working exploits. Cloudflare’s CEO reports millions of exploitation attempts. Their AI involvement is unknown. - Railway disclosed possible access to customer secrets. LiteLLM shipped a backdoored release. Zeabur confirmed another breach and is shutting down. - GitLab patched a maximum-severity flaw affecting 12 years of releases. Node.js patched a serious code-execution vulnerability, with Vercel deploying firewall protections. Feels like a turningpoint.
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Who’s at Shiprock tonight for an upwards-bolt fest?
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Man I gotta start living in the desert SW
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That feels like a tornado near Heber-Overgaard right now
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So basically, today PHP got two critical bugs that let anyone run code on your server without even logging in, which is bad, and then the details leaked before the patch was even out, which is worse, and it works on WordPress and MediaWiki and Magento and Joomla and Laravel, and Censys says like 1.5 million servers are running a version with no fix, so the NSA was like "take your system offline," and the FBI was like "take your system offline," and CISA and the UK and CERT-EU were all like "take your system offline," and then the Prime Minister of Japan, the actual Prime Minister, posted at 5:55 in the morning telling 48.8 million people to take their system offline, so everyone took their system offline, like the Dutch cybersecurity agency took its own website offline, and the Dutch parliament went offline, and the Port of Rotterdam went offline, and Finland and France and Denmark started pulling government sites, and Wikipedia went down, and Archive.org went down, and Asana and GOG and Something Awful went down, and the University of Vienna's webmail went down for some reason, and that's just PHP. Because GitLab also dropped a CVSS 10.0, which is the highest score they give out, for a bug that's been there since 2014, so that's every self-hosted GitLab for twelve years, and then LiteLLM 1.107.0 got hijacked and shipped a credential stealer and a remote access trojan in every single wheel and the Docker images, including latest, and you didn't even have to import it, just installing it was enough, and it's the second time this year, and then Railway paused every deployment on the entire platform because someone got into the environment variables, so now everyone has to rotate every secret they've ever stored there, and TiDB Cloud said someone was walking around inside with stolen credentials for basically a month and an extortion group says they took 10.6 terabytes, and Zeabur got breached for the second time in two months and is just shutting down, like the whole company, and Node.js patched remote code execution and a TLS bypass, and CISA says Plex is being actively exploited, and someone took over 300 Tor exit relays to steal SSH passwords, and SafePay ransomware has hit over 600 critical infrastructure orgs, and India's biggest bank filed a data loss incident, and Japan has been in an official state of emergency in cyberspace since October 9, which honestly explains the 5:55 AM post. Oh, and eMudhra, a certificate authority that's issued over 60 million certificates, whose entire job is proving websites are who they say they are, was supposed to be using private keys that are random numbers over a hundred digits long, and one of them was 4. Just 4. And the others were like 66 and 237. Anyway, it's Wednesday.
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The short-term way that AI will destroy us is it will identify all the vulnerabilities every system on the Web has
welp. the Internet was nice while it lasted.
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Just an amazing supercell approaching Show Low right now. #azwx @NWSFlagstaff
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Arizona’s “the look”. Near Winslow
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