For the first time in quite a while, our attention is on a developing tropical system in the Gulf that could bring impacts all the way up here into Tennessee later this weekend. If you’ll be anywhere between New Orleans to Panama City vacationing on fall break at the end of this week/this week, you need to be paying very close attention. This area of development is classified as ‘Invest 92L’ by the National Hurricane Center, currently situated roughly 250 miles south southeast of Brownsville, Texas. NHC gives this disturbance a near 100% probability of developing into a tropical depression (or greater) within the next 48 hours. The NOAA Gulfstream aircraft will be sampling the environment of this potential storm this afternoon with an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft schedule to investigate the system tomorrow. These missions will give us a much better picture of this storm while providing forecast models with valuable data to base projections on. As it pertains to the coast, it’s too early to get into specific impacts. Models vary with projected intensity – several have this storm reaching Category 1 or 2 strength at its peak, potentially weakening before it makes landfall by Saturday. These projections are very much subject to change. If and when this storm is named, it will be known as ‘Isaias’ (ees-ah-EE-ahs). If you’re on vacation (or will be), please be watching this storm closely. There’s no need to cancel any plans right now or come home early/delay your trip, but you should certainly pay attention in case things change. Regardless of storm intensity, anticipated impacts for coastal areas like Gulf Shores, Pensacola, Destin and Panama City will be periods of heavy rain that could lead to localized flooding, high surf with dangerous rip currents and the potential for tornadoes. Winds will also be elevated. Coincidentally, I’ll be in Destin during this storm for a trip that was already planned. It should be an interesting time to be there…especially since I’ll more than likely have a hard time pronouncing ‘Isaias’…lol For us here at home in the Upper Cumberland, models are in general agreement that the remnants of (what will likely be) Isaias will move across Tennessee this weekend, bringing beneficial rains as early as Saturday with the bulk of this system passing through on Sunday. It’s too early to get into details that are any more specific, but I would definitely go ahead and plan for rain Sunday. BETWEEN NOW AND THEN… The weather will be fantastic! Highs this afternoon are on track to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s for most of us with skies remaining sunny. Overnight, we’ll see clear skies with lows in the mid 50s. Tomorrow will be sunny once again with highs in the lower 80s for most us. Thursday and Friday will be our warmest days this week with many of us climbing into the low to mid 80s with skies remaining sunny. Overnight lows will continue to be in the mid 50s. Our first showers from the outer bands of Isaias could reach us Saturday. Otherwise, we’ll see a mix of sun and clouds with highs around 80°.