The Colts sold two Pro Bowlers in one afternoon. They got back a third, a fourth and a fifth. I used to work at Robinhood. Pricing deals was the job. So until the November 10 deadline, I'm grading every NFL trade like one. TRADE GRADES #1 AND #2 QUENTON NELSON TO SEATTLE Six time All Pro. Pro Bowl in all eight of his seasons. Indy gets: a 2027 third and a 2028 fifth. DEFOREST BUCKNER TO SAN FRANCISCO Three time Pro Bowler. The Colts paid the 13th overall pick for him in 2020. Indy gets: a 2027 fourth. The fine print: both contracts end after this season. Keep them and they likely walk in March. Seattle: A. Their run game ranks 23rd. Not anymore. San Francisco: A minus. A proven pass rusher for a fourth. Indianapolis: B minus. Selling rentals is smart. Turning a 13th pick into a fourth still stings. The Colts are 2 and 5, fired their GM and have no 2027 first. This isn't a reset. It's a teardown. Is Jonathan Taylor next? Every deadline trade gets graded here. Follow for #3.

Two years ago the Eagles won the Super Bowl. Tonight they're missing their QB, their top two receivers and their right tackle. I used to work at Robinhood. Now I build NFL models, grade every pick in public, and I'm about to make the whole model free. Last week: 8 and 5. My forecast had Philadelphia by 0.15 this morning. A coin flip. Then I did the injury check I promised yesterday. Jalen Hurts: injured reserve. DeVonta Smith: out. Dontayvion Wicks: out. Lane Johnson: retired. Saquon Barkley: questionable after missing two straight. The pick flips. Dallas over Philadelphia. But not by much. Vegas has Dallas by 4.5. I think Dallas wins by a field goal, not a touchdown. Philly's backups keep it closer than people expect. Is this the end of the Eagles era, or does Philly shock everyone tonight? Graded tomorrow. Follow so you don't miss the model when it goes live.

POV: Dak Prescott vs. Tanner McKee on MNF 🤡😭

If Aaron Rodgers passes Drew Brees next year, he's a better quarterback than Peyton Manning. Not close. He's 42. He just passed Peyton today, in Paris. I used to work at Robinhood, so naturally I ran the math on the rest of the list. Brady: 649 Brees: 571 Rodgers: 540 Manning: 539 The record breaker was a 4 yard fade to Darnell Washington in the first NFL game ever played in France. 19 of 30, 212 yards, no picks. Steelers win 16 to 10. (My model had Pittsburgh this morning.) THE MATH Rodgers has 13 TDs through 7 games. About 1.9 per game. Brees is 31 away. At this pace he finishes the year around 559. He'd need one more season and about 13 more TDs. Brady is 109 away. That's roughly three more full seasons. He'd have to play until he's 46. Brady retired at 45. Brady's record is safe. Brees's isn't. And the moment Rodgers passes him, the Peyton debate is over. Tell me why I'm wrong. I post the numbers every week and grade myself every Monday. Follow if you want to see who was right.

I used to work at Robinhood. Now I build NFL models for fun and test them in public. Yesterday I spent all day defending Baker Mayfield. Today my model picked against him. Thursday: Chicago. Correct. All 12 Sunday winners are in the reply. THE SUNDAY FILM ROOM: WEEK 7 Three games I'm watching. ★ CAROLINA over TAMPA BAY Both forecasts have Carolina, by almost 5. The last time Baker played, he got sacked 6 times and hit 12 times. Now he's back without his starting right tackle and without Egbuka. I still think Baker isn't the problem. The spreadsheet doesn't care what I think. ★ CLEVELAND over TENNESSEE The two forecasts split on this one. Combined, Cleveland by 0.05 points. Both also have it as the lowest scoring game of the week. That's not a pick. That's a coin with a slight lean. The last time I called a coin flip that leaned Cleveland, the Jets won by 5. I'm doing it again anyway. ★ SAN FRANCISCO over ATLANTA Both forecasts like the Niners. Both were also set before Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel got ruled out. That's two of Purdy's top targets gone in one afternoon. I'm sticking with it, but this is the one most likely to make me look dumb on Monday. These are baseline forecasts, not a full injury rerun. Monday, every call gets graded. The bad ones stay up too. Which of these three falls apart first?

Justin Herbert time to celebrate Can't lose if there is no game😭