"The greatest pleasure... well, when you break his ego, this is where it's at."
Joined January 2023
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Keep this as a strong reminder for your life:
You were born to be great. That’s why you must raise your expectations and your ambition. Act on your vision and your obsession. Love to fail, love to learn and embrace a collective aura of winning together. Just be a genuine, honest and authentic human, curious and optimistic. Help others to be great and treat everyone with respect. It would be mind-blowing if everyone acted this way. So inspire yourself and others each day, knowing that you can make a difference. You will 14x your own energy levels. Sometimes a single moment holds enough power to create a new path for a better future. Be the light in the dark. Inspire to create. Inspire to learn. Today is your perfect day. Go and make a difference.
xbtsnow ❄️ retweeted
My goodness, what an absolute bloodbath today.
This is what capitulation looks like:
xbtsnow ❄️ retweeted
Think in billions, not shares.
A move from 1,820 to 1,830 on $ANT represents a $10B increase in Anthropic's implied valuation.
Trade $ANT on Polymarket Perps with a 3× volume boost in the $50K Competition👇
Polymarket.com/r/perps-comp
xbtsnow ❄️ retweeted
People would rather take 3 slaps followed by a hug than a single slap.
That's (almost) what psychologists showed in an experiment: people held a hand in painfully cold water for 60 seconds, then did it again for 90 seconds, with the water slightly less cold for the last 30.
Asked which one they'd rather repeat, most picked the longer one. 50% longer in pain, but a nicer ending.
Because that's all your brain cares about: the worst moment and the ending. So make 3x on a stock, sell it after a -30% slide that still leaves you with twice your money, and your brain goes: "nope, that was a loss."
That's how you end up never buying back one of the best companies you ever owned.
The fix is boring, as usual: know that your brain does this, and remember it when it counts. So, thank you, psychology.
xbtsnow ❄️ retweeted
Steve Ballmer on how Microsoft spent 15 years preparing Satya Nadella to become its next CEO:
When it came time to find his replacement, Ballmer says there wasn't much deliberation left to do.
Microsoft had been preparing its successor for years:
"When it came time to to find my replacement, I kind of kind of knew up front, look, we've been grooming this guy for about 10 years, 15 years. This guy is really talented, so he he gets the job obviously."
So how do you spend 10 to 15 years preparing a future CEO?
According to Ballmer, you start with someone who is "a very technical person," and then you keep moving him into areas he doesn't know.
Ballmer says one of the things that mattered to Satya, to the company, and later to the board was that Microsoft gave him many different experiences, and "he did well at all of them."
The first stretch was a business that had nothing to do with his technical background:
"So we said hey you don't really know anything about an area called general ledger and accounting but why don't you go run this thing called dynamics."
Ballmer adds that the business was "probably called great plains at the time," admitting he can't remember for sure.
Then Microsoft sped up the process:
"We moved him quite rapidly. We said, 'We got to get this search thing together. This is the high potential guy. This is a guy who can learn new things. He's technically minded.' Boom. Throw him a new problem. And he's building new skill sets along the way."
Each move added a new skill set. One was machine learning, which Ballmer describes as a fundamentally different style of software:
"Old programs were supposed to generate the right answer."
By contrast, he explains, many newer programs aim for the "statistically best answer," and you only find out afterwards whether it was precisely right.
Over the years, a pattern appeared. Assignment after assignment, the same strengths kept showing up:
"He clearly had good people skills. He clearly had an affinity for product."
He also "clearly had a knack … for understanding how to think about particularly our enterprise selling operation."
That track record prompted Ballmer to give him even more responsibility, and it led Ballmer and his senior leadership team to an explicit agreement:
"This is a guy we should be thinking about for the future of the company."
By the time @Steven_Ballmer stepped aside, the succession decision had effectively been made years earlier.
xbtsnow ❄️ retweeted
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Meet top fund managers, strategists, and allocators at #BloombergInvest Dubai to unlock key emerging opportunities.
Register today! 🎫
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xbtsnow ❄️ retweeted
Congrats to @BRK_Student for an excerpt from his excellent book making it into the Museum of American Finance's magazine! fhmagazine.org/financial-his…
Make sure to buy the whole book, though: link.amazon/B0bdVpEpF
xbtsnow ❄️ retweeted
Otto von Bismarck almost worked himself to death.
Instead of working regular hours, he often worked more. Instead of sleep he preferred late night work because during that period he was most creative.
Because of this intense and inconsistent routine, doctors made him to take mandatory break throughout his day.
Napoleon Bonaparte worked 16 hours a day.
He never ate more than he needed, often spending less than 15 minutes on a meal so he would not waste time. Multiple secretaries opened and read his letters for him, so he would not waste his own energy. The emperor also slept in intervals, waking in the middle of the night to work on reports, letters, and orders.
Napoleon also did several tasks at once. He read reports in the bath, just to squeeze in extra working hours and get a little more done.
The French Emperor was obsessed with work, and because of his work ethic, Napoleon became the most powerful man in Europe.
But Napoleon was not the only workaholic. Almost every Great Man in history, from Caesar to Isaac Newton to Bismarck, had intense working sessions, often spending nearly all their waking hours working.
Today we will dive deeper into why Great Men work with obsession, how it builds their success, and how we can crush our goals like they did.
Read on The Modern Caesar Newsletter:
themoderncaesar.substack.com
xbtsnow ❄️ retweeted
Copper buyers in China are scrambling for physical metal, with spot premiums soaring as supplies tighten sharply in the world’s biggest consumer bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
xbtsnow ❄️ retweeted
Meta opens the books on its debut sale of euro bonds after raising $15 billion in dollar-denominated debt on Tuesday bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
xbtsnow ❄️ retweeted
"I think Federer said he loses about as many points as people that he wins, but he just wins the rallies longer than the guy at the other end and makes less mistakes."
Former Tudor Investment portfolio manager Andrew Perry, founder of Macro Pillars, on the hit rate of the best traders he saw:
"It's small wins and edges."
"I think Federer said he loses about as many points as people that he wins, but he just wins the rallies longer than the guy at the other end and makes less mistakes."
"When you have your wins, you run them and you try and make your wins in terms of positions when you're winning larger than the ones when you're losing. That's the edge."
"You're not looking for a ratio of winning 80% of the time, 90% of the time. It's nonsense. No one does that. If anyone tells you that, they're telling you fibs."
"The good ones run around 55 to 57."
"Never ever not have a stop loss."
"I think Federer said he loses about as many points as people that he wins, but he just wins the rallies longer than the guy at the other end and makes less mistakes."
Former Tudor Investment portfolio manager Andrew Perry, founder of Macro Pillars, on the hit rate of the best traders he saw:
"It's small wins and edges."
"I think Federer said he loses about as many points as people that he wins, but he just wins the rallies longer than the guy at the other end and makes less mistakes."
"When you have your wins, you run them and you try and make your wins in terms of positions when you're winning larger than the ones when you're losing. That's the edge."
"You're not looking for a ratio of winning 80% of the time, 90% of the time. It's nonsense. No one does that. If anyone tells you that, they're telling you fibs."
"The good ones run around 55 to 57."
"Never ever not have a stop loss."
xbtsnow ❄️ retweeted
James McAvoy starred in Wanted with Angelina Jolie. It made $342,000,000 worldwide. He says some of his residual checks now come in at 25 cents.
"It literally costs more to post this than it did for me to check it, cash it," he says.
In the video below, McAvoy tells Josh Horowitz the one movie that still pays him. It's not the one you'd guess.
The one that keeps paying is Split. He says it was made "for like $6 million or something." Box Office Mojo lists $9,000,000.
It opened to $40,000,000 in North America and made $278,000,000 worldwide. So his first residual check came "at the end of the first weekend," he says.
Wanted cost $75,000,000 and made $342,000,000. "I don't get too much money from, from Wanted," he says.
Now he's directing. His first film, California Schemin', had "3 million, three-ish million," he says. That bought a five-week shoot. 25 days.
He says he made Last King of Scotland for the same 3 million and shot for 10 weeks in foreign countries.
When the money ran short, he told his producers he'd do whatever it took to get it. Even "kiss someone's ass."
"I didn't need to give any sexual favors in the end, which is brilliant," he says.
California Schemin' has made about $720,000 worldwide, per The Numbers.
The case for the studios: McAvoy got paid up front for Wanted, hit or flop. Back end money only shows up when a movie turns a profit on paper. Split did that in one weekend, he says. Most movies never do.
So should actors get a cut of every hit they're in, or is the up-front check the whole deal?
xbtsnow ❄️ retweeted
1. Taking action
2. Putting in the reps = Do as much volume as humanely possibly
3. Iterate
4. Keep on working
.@MrBeast on how to create success from scratch:
"A lot of people get analysis paralysis and they'll just sit there and they'll plan their first video for three months. And any of you listening, especially if you have zero videos on your channel, your first video is not gonna give views, period. It's not, your first 10 are not gonna give views. I can very confidently say that.
So stop sitting there and thinking for months and months on end, and just get to work and start uploading. All you need to do, this applies to people who have not uploaded videos but have dreams of being a YouTuber, is make 100 videos and improve something every time. Do that. And then on your 101st video, we'll start talking, like maybe you can get some views, but your first 100 are gonna... There are very freak cases like Liza Koshy or Emma Chamberlain, who have really good personalities and it doesn't take them as many videos.
And it's just like people who are seven foot five and making the NBA. Yes, there are freak cases you can find, but for the average person like us, who don't have these exceptional personalities and backgrounds in filmmaking, just make 100 videos, improve something each time, and then talk to me on your 101st video."
1. Taking action
2. Putting in the reps = Do as much volume as humanely possibly
3. Iterate
4. Keep on working
.@MrBeast on how to create success from scratch:
"A lot of people get analysis paralysis and they'll just sit there and they'll plan their first video for three months. And any of you listening, especially if you have zero videos on your channel, your first video is not gonna give views, period. It's not, your first 10 are not gonna give views. I can very confidently say that.
So stop sitting there and thinking for months and months on end, and just get to work and start uploading. All you need to do, this applies to people who have not uploaded videos but have dreams of being a YouTuber, is make 100 videos and improve something every time. Do that. And then on your 101st video, we'll start talking, like maybe you can get some views, but your first 100 are gonna... There are very freak cases like Liza Koshy or Emma Chamberlain, who have really good personalities and it doesn't take them as many videos.
And it's just like people who are seven foot five and making the NBA. Yes, there are freak cases you can find, but for the average person like us, who don't have these exceptional personalities and backgrounds in filmmaking, just make 100 videos, improve something each time, and then talk to me on your 101st video."
xbtsnow ❄️ retweeted
if you're looking for a primer on the state of semis today, i'd give this episode with Timothy Arcuri a listen.
Timothy has an unbelievable seat to this market that gives him perspectives we were lucky to talk through on the podcast. tune in!
Today’s guest is Timothy Arcuri, Managing Director at @UBS.
Timothy has been covering the semiconductor landscape for over 20 years. His expertise is unmatched.
From Micron to NVIDIA’s installed base, we discuss:
- Can power keep up with chip expectations?
- Who will pay a premium for faster inference
- Broadcom and building chips in house
- What Cerebras’s OpenAI deal means
- Where equipment and packaging create openings
- Political backlash and customer concentration
Timestamps:
Introduction
Can power keep up with chip demand?
From process engineering to Wall Street
Measuring AI demand and faster inference
How AI is changing semiconductor research
NVIDIA, AMD and Intel
Custom chips, Broadcom and MediaTek
Inference startups and Cerebras
Micron, HBM and the memory cycle
What long-term memory contracts change
Equipment, packaging and fab economics
Where new compute companies can compete
Cobots, humanoids and chip demand
Political backlash and customers
NVIDIA’s installed base in a downturn
Listen to the show, and follow along for new episodes every Tuesday.
xbtsnow ❄️ retweeted
“The greatest teacher I have found for this is taking action & learning from the results. In the markets, you get immediate, objective feedback. When you are wrong, it hurts, & when you are right, it is rewarding. Relying on that constant feedback loop is the ultimate education.”
I consider myself an imperfectionist. My memory is naturally wired for conceptual thinking rather than holding onto small details. Because of this, I focus on the big picture and how everything connects, which is exactly what being a global macro investor requires.
The greatest teacher I have found for this is simply taking action and learning from the results. In the markets, you get immediate, objective feedback. You can judge your performance down to three decimal places. When you are wrong, it hurts, and when you are right, it is rewarding. Relying on that constant feedback loop is the ultimate education.
#RayDalio #Principles
“The greatest teacher I have found for this is taking action & learning from the results. In the markets, you get immediate, objective feedback. When you are wrong, it hurts, & when you are right, it is rewarding. Relying on that constant feedback loop is the ultimate education.”
I consider myself an imperfectionist. My memory is naturally wired for conceptual thinking rather than holding onto small details. Because of this, I focus on the big picture and how everything connects, which is exactly what being a global macro investor requires.
The greatest teacher I have found for this is simply taking action and learning from the results. In the markets, you get immediate, objective feedback. You can judge your performance down to three decimal places. When you are wrong, it hurts, and when you are right, it is rewarding. Relying on that constant feedback loop is the ultimate education.
#RayDalio #Principles
xbtsnow ❄️ retweeted
15 gym realisations i have so far:
- diet >>> exercise: we become what we eat. body simply reflects what u put in ur stomach
- height matters: more height means more mass to put to look good and achieve BMI means more efforts, time and money.
- bone structure : a guy w good bone density and structure would look better and stronger than a guy w avg bone density and structure. (shouldn't be an excuse but good to know)
- you need money for fitness
- sleep is non negotiable
- gym gives u a reality check of your genetics (accept yourself without any apology)
- prioritising health would make you unfit for many groups/ppl and it's okay.
- follow science not bro-science. first understand whatever you do and eat.
- ego lifting can retire you at 20
- stay away from show off guys in gym.
- good health and physique aren't a destination but journey.
- don't let the narcissism take over ur mind when u grow.
- never get too naked in gym
- no shortcuts.
- hitting gym should be fun. that's the only way to stay consistent over a long period of time.