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solo investor / trader I occasionally tweet about elections

Joined July 2020
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Weird, I thought circle only froze when they had a court order? @jerallaire
As of block 26301098 (21:30 UTC), every attacker wallet still holding $USDT, $USDC or $XAUt is frozen Tether and Circle have managed to freeze a total of $2.37B There's still $187M possible to freeze or claw back by other issuers
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making inspirational IG reels about losing your home bc of gambling >>>>>>>
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$GOOG search growth negative second derivative
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Abbott’s going to lose 😂
No past primary now carries the largest share in the electorate.
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Why are Anthropic employees endorsing political candidates in foreign elections?
Sometimes you can literally just beat authoritarianism and it is so fucking cool. Feeling so inspired by Serbia + Brazil (and Hungary earlier this year). Democracy rocks
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So much delicious cope I almost wish I was a lib then I could truly relish it
The Dems are flooding prediction markets with bad bets to shift perceptions of reality. It only would cost $200,000 to change Talarico’s odds from 50 to 67% That’s a fraction of the 114 million spent on Talaricos campaign and more effective than road signs. People don’t believe polls but prediction markets create more certainty, because who would throw away money right? The best we can do is make their marketing stunt as expensive as possible by placing more bets on Paxton and collecting. Once election results hit the odds will be revealed to have been way off base and the Dems will use it as a call to regulate prediction markets.
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So who else got an email from their student loan servicer essentially announcing that your govt is fucking you over for the next 25 years?
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Its “crucial flaw” is assuming that billionaires will actually leave California if the wealth tax is passed, despite it being “one time” and retroactive. Gabriel does not acknowledge that billionaires have already left, nor does he question whether a wealth tax might discourage tech founders from locating in CA in the first place. To believe in progressive tax policy, one must be willfully ignorant or just low IQ.
This Hoover Institution study, which has fueled the deluge of ads (more than $200 million spent by billionaires so far) to defeat the California billionaire tax, is spectacularly misleading. Let me explain its crucial flaw. 🧵
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
Zucman argues that the tax will raise his projected revenue because billionaires who leave CA after 1/1/26 will be taxed anyway. At least $542B of net worth (Page, Brin, Thiel) departed the state by 12/31/25. The entire thread is a misleading denial of this fact. ft.com/content/d66976… nytimes.com/2026/04/27/us/… forbes.com/sites/forbeswe…
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Creating a poison and then selling the antidote
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Ohio similarly looks very strong for Dems vs GOP.
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Building off work from @ElectProject, but early vote data looks very strong for Democrats in Maine, similar to what we've seen in other states. Dems at 85% of 2024 early vote totals compared to 63% for GOP on same day.
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“Front loading” was the excuse that Dems gave in 2024 to explain why GOP early vote turnout was so good. Turned out that more votes early was predictive of more votes total. Be skeptical of anything that discredits Dem early vote advantages as “front loading”.
I have a mutual on here who is running a statewide Texas model using county data and let’s just say Dems probably aren’t happy given the front loading we’ve been seeing them do all over. Real Dems not the fake leftist hype retards on here
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The counter to this is that people are biased to bet inline with the polls.
People who bet on red once and won are very likely to bet red again Simple psychology
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Every single tech billionaire that swung hard right in 24 will pivot back to pro party in power in 26 if dems sweep.
Elon Musk admits he got carried away working with Donald Trump and stayed in politics for too long. MUSK: "I think I had it going on for too long. A lot of people might disagree with me. I think it was important to elect President Trump to sort of steer things more in the direction of a free market economy, have less bureaucracy ideally. In my sort of simple political platform of wanting safe cities, secure borders, aspirationally sensible spending, you know, the basics, I thought Trump would be better than Kamala basically. But what I should have done, I think, was be more in the background. It was interesting to sort of go around with President Trump and go on Marine One and Air Force One and all that sort of stuff." ISAACSON: "But was that too seductive in a way?" MUSK: "It was a little bit. It was kind of cool because I'm just there in the Oval Office while all these big momentous decisions are being made and sometimes having some impact on what's being done. But I think I should have been more in the background and probably only had it last for a month or two because at that point you've seen most of what there is to see within a month or two." ISAACSON: "You seem to get a bit too intoxicated by it in a way with the chainsaws and all that." MUSK: "I think that's true. I got carried away basically. I ended up leaving I guess sometime in May." ISAACSON: "That was a weird weekend." MUSK: "Yeah, it was." Walter Isaacson: "Tell me about it." MUSK: "No, let's not dig up the... let's let sleeping dogs lie or whatever. Let's not put a spade down in the backyard type of thing. You never know what you're going to find. But anyway, the point is I should have gone back and focused on AI a little sooner than I did."
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Further evidence that talarico will lose
Here is where things stand with Nevada. Republicans had a great day with voting. They should win all counties (still voting in Clark) and gained about 1700 over Democrats today. You can see the pattern in the image below: Democrats doing well with mail, Republicans well (less so right now) with IPEV, and the total is a Democrat lead in the state. There will be another mail dump later tonight (my apologies if I caused trauma with that statement) that will of course be Democrat favored....but what Republicans will want to see is if the gap continues to close in the mail. Republicans need to keep up the pace with both mail and in person. It may not seem like a lot but in a smaller state like Nevada,
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Trump +3 on day 1 is not enough for talarico
Solid Day 1 early voting numbers for Talarico. Our model estimates Black voters made up 13.4% of the IPEV electorate, up from 11.6% in 2024, with an overall electorate of Trump+3 in a state he won by 14. Still early, though, and Day 1 has typically been Democrats’ strongest.
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I’m betting on Abbott win + Dem Sweep I think you’d need a 16 point D swing at least for Abbott to lose in Texas…
Pretty big decline in Abbott's chance of winning on Kalshi. Still think nobody ready for Texas data center moratorium
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2024 is a better comp @grok how does it compare to 2024 Day 1-14
Miami-Dade county early voting turnout 2022 Day 1-14 🔴 Republican 109,467 (44.9%) 🔵 Democratic 76,286 (31.3%) ⚪️ Unaffiliated/Other 57,901 (23.8%) 2026 Day 1 🔵 Democratic 5,304 (42.4%) 🔴 Republican 4,517 (36.1%) ⚪️ Unaffiliated/Other 2,683 (21.5%)
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Signal
The southeastern part of Loudoun looks like it's going to be a nuclear bomb for Republicans this year based on our current EV model. Basically, the inverse of 2024. The South Asian precincts are currently ~20-point swings to the left from 2025. projects.statenavigate.com/i…
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