Elwood P. Dowd : Years ago my mother used to say to me, she'd say, "In this world, Elwood, you must be" - she always called me Elwood - "In this world, Elwood, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant." Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. You may quote me.

Few if any of us really know the alternatives. Netanyahu is all we know. He is tried and proven. Who else has the guts to do the job?

Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson is definitely distinguishing herself.

$LQDA LIQUIDIA (LQDA): SCIENCE, COMPETITION, VALUATION ------------------------------------------------ Written 2026-10-24 at $42.40. Fair value about $70 (range $60–80), roughly 65% upside, bear case near $28. YUTREPIA has taken ~28% of a $2.5B inhaled-treprostinil market in five quarters on a real pharmacologic edge (dose), and the settlement removed the existential risk; what is now being priced is how much of the business was PH-ILD, which the label no longer carries. Q4 2026 (reported February 2027) is the first quarter that answers it. PREMISE CHECK ------------- The '327 case is over: Judge Andrews held claims 1 and 14 valid and infringed on 2026-09-30, and the 2026-10-13 global settlement costs $380.7M ($175.0M net within 30 business days, two $72.7M installments by 2027-01-31 and 2027-04-30, $60.3M to antitrust-case participants) and removes PH-ILD from the label. Preliminary Q3 YUTREPIA sales were $222.7M (+30% QoQ) with $396.1M of cash at 2026-09-30, so the payments are fundable from operations, as management says. The dashboard's Drug Commercialization test reads 99.4 A STRONG, but note what it is scored on: your own FY26–FY30 model (EPS 3.61 / 6.03 / 8.31 / 11.51 / 15.37, pro forma ex-settlement), not consensus, which sits at 2.04 / 2.11 / 3.30. THE SCIENCE ----------- YUTREPIA's edge is engineering, not a new molecule: it delivers more treprostinil to the lung per session than Tyvaso DPI can, and PAH is a dose-responsive disease. The disease. Pulmonary arterial hypertension (WHO Group 1, ~45,000 treated US patients) is progressive remodeling of the small pulmonary arteries; prostacyclin-pathway agents are the most effective class and the only one with a dose-response that clinicians titrate against symptoms. PH-ILD (Group 3) is pulmonary hypertension secondary to fibrotic lung disease, where inhaled treprostinil is the only therapy with a positive trial (UTHR's INCREASE, 2021); the '327 patent covers that use. The mechanism. Treprostinil, a stable prostacyclin analogue, formulated by PRINT (particle replication in non-wetting templates) into uniform dry-powder particles sized for deep-lung deposition, delivered four times daily from a low-resistance capsule inhaler. Capsule strengths are 26.5, 53, 79.5 and 106 mcg, titrated upward as tolerated. Tyvaso DPI (Technosphere, MannKind) tops out at a 64 mcg cartridge; nebulized Tyvaso takes 2–3 minutes per session. Higher deliverable dose per breath, in a device patients prefer to a nebulizer, is the whole proposition. The evidence, in order of rigor Study: INSPIRE (PAH) Design: Open-label Phase 3, ~120 patients: prostacyclin-naive starts and transitions from nebulized Tyvaso Result: Safety and tolerability consistent with inhaled treprostinil (cough, throat irritation, headache); patients titrated to doses above Tyvaso DPI's ceiling; 6MWD gains larger at higher doses. Basis of the May 2025 approval Study: ASCENT (PH-ILD) Design: Open-label Phase 3 Result: Supported the PH-ILD indication now being withdrawn from the label Study: Bioequivalence to Tyvaso Design: PK bridging Result: Approval rests on treprostinil's established efficacy (505(b)(2)); no new placebo-controlled outcomes trial Study: Real-world (launch) Design: ~5,900 unique prescriptions, >5,000 patient starts, >1,100 prescribers through 2026-07-31; ~30% of prescribers have written 5+ patients Result: Adoption by both switchers and naive starts; payer access at parity with Tyvaso Caveats a skeptic will raise. There is no randomized efficacy trial of YUTREPIA itself; the dose argument rests on an open-label study and on treprostinil's class pharmacology. Four-times-daily dosing is a real adherence burden against the once-daily products in development. The PH-ILD evidence is now academic: without the label the company cannot promote it, and payers may require a Group 1 diagnosis. Pipeline. YUTREPIA in systemic sclerosis with Raynaud's (RE-WARM, 75 patients, Fast Track) and PH-COPD, both unserved. L606, a liposomal treprostinil nebulized twice daily (licensed from Pharmosa), is in the Phase 3 RE-SPIRE trial in PH-ILD, with a PPF/IPF study planned 1H27. The settlement explicitly does not cover indications other than PAH or new treprostinil products, so UTHR can assert against L606; that is the next legal front, not a closed one. WHERE THE LAUNCH IS ------------------- YUTREPIA is approaching 30% of a US inhaled-treprostinil market that grew ~6% quarter on quarter in Q2; the question for the next two quarters is how much of its own book was PH-ILD. Metric: YUTREPIA net sales Q1 / Q2 / Q3 (prelim) 2026 Value: $130M / $170.4M / $222.7M Metric: Run-rate revenue (Q3 x 4) Value: $890.8M Metric: TTM revenue (to Sep '26) Value: $619.3M Metric: Gross margin Value: 93% Metric: Operating margin TTM Value: 37%; Q2 operating income $85.5M, net income $74.7M ($0.74) Metric: Free cash flow, last 4 reported quarters Value: −$10.7M, $42.2M, $50.2M, $69.0M Metric: Cash / debt (Jun '26) Value: $284.2M / $176.2M; cash $396.1M at Sep 30 before the settlement payments Metric: Inhaled treprostinil category Q2 2026 Value: ~$607–623M (Tyvaso DPI $326.6M +4% YoY, nebulized Tyvaso $126.0M −18%, YUTREPIA $170.4M) Metric: Management's stated aim Value: "well on our way" to >$1B net revenue in 2027 (pre-settlement remark, August) Growth is coming out of nebulized Tyvaso first (−18% YoY on volume) and from category expansion; Tyvaso DPI is still growing on price. UTHR says competition hurt all three of its treprostinil lines. Consensus vs your model. Consensus (fiscal.ai mean) revenue $717M / $762M / $886M for FY26–28 and EPS 2.04 / 2.11 / 3.30 — numbers that imply the business stops growing at the Q3 run-rate. fiscal.ai's in-house estimate is $758M / $1,250M / $1,600M. Your model is $761M / $1,156M / $1,582M with EPS 3.61 / 6.03 / 8.31. The Street mean looks stale and PH-ILD-shocked at once; the gap between it and the run-rate is the opportunity and the risk. COMPETITIVE THREATS, RANKED BY CONSEQUENCE ------------------------------------------ The near-term threat is regulatory and commercial (the PH-ILD carve-out and UTHR's IPF label), the long-term one is dosing convenience (once-daily inhaled and oral prostacyclins). Rank: 1 Threat: PH-ILD label removal What it is: Supplement filed to strike PH-ILD; no promotion; '327 claims held valid Status: In force since 2026-10-13 Why it matters: Tyvaso's post-2021 growth was predominantly PH-ILD; if YUTREPIA's mix is similar, new starts in a third to a half of its addressable pool stop. Your view that physicians code PH-ILD as Group 1 to stay on drug is the swing variable, and payers are the check on it Rank: 2 Threat: UTHR nebulized Tyvaso in IPF, then Tyvaso DPI in IPF/PPF What it is: TETON program; sNDA under review Status: Decision expected late April 2027 Why it matters: Opens the ILD community to UTHR alone and reinforces nebulized Tyvaso in exactly the patients YUTREPIA can no longer court Rank: 3 Threat: Insmed TPIP What it is: Once-daily dry-powder treprostinil prodrug; Phase 3 PALM-PAH and PALM-ILD enrolling; positive 12-month OLE data in PAH Status: Readouts 2027–28, launch 2028+ Why it matters: The direct successor product: same molecule, once daily vs four times; the first thing a YUTREPIA patient would switch for Rank: 4 Threat: UTHR ralinepag What it is: Once-daily oral IP receptor agonist Status: NDA accepted; PDUFA 2027-06-24 Why it matters: An oral alternative for patients escalating from PDE5/ERA who would otherwise go inhaled; UTHR also plans a ralinepag DPI Rank: 5 Threat: Tyvaso DPI itself What it is: Incumbent dry powder, record starts and patients in Q2 per UTHR Status: Now Why it matters: Still growing on price; UTHR's field force and hub are the default; a 64 mcg ceiling is its weakness Rank: 6 Threat: Merck Winrevair (sotatercept) What it is: Activin signaling inhibitor, add-on Status: Approved; outcomes trials positive Why it matters: Slows disease and may delay escalation to prostacyclins; a headwind to category growth, not a substitute Rank: 7 Threat: UTHR patents vs L606 and new indications What it is: Settlement covers YUTREPIA in PAH only Status: Open Why it matters: The litigation risk did not end; it moved to the pipeline Not a threat: Gossamer's seralutinib missed its PROSERA primary endpoint (+13.3 m 6MWD, p=0.032 vs alpha 0.025, Feb 2026). Generic nebulized treprostinil remains delayed. BALANCE SHEET ------------- Liquidia funds the $380.7M settlement from cash and operations without a raise; the cost is roughly one year of free cash flow. - Cash $396.1M at 2026-09-30 (prelim). Payments: ~$175M by mid-November, $60.3M in October, $72.7M by 2027-01-31 and 2027-04-30. Pro forma cash troughs near $90–130M around year-end before Q4 collections, then rebuilds; management expects no additional financing. - Debt $176.2M ex-leases at June 30 (HealthCare Royalty facility); net cash +$108M then, roughly net debt of $50–80M at the trough. - Free cash flow ran $69M in Q2 and should be ~$90–110M a quarter at the Q3 run-rate before settlement outflows; R&D is guided to double in 2H26 and rise again in 2027 for ten studies. - Book value per share $2.19; 89.1M shares outstanding, ~102–110M diluted. VALUATION --------- Probability-weighted value is about $70 a share (30% bear, 50% base, 20% bull) against $42.40. Assumptions common to all three 2028 scenarios: 93% gross margin, opex rising to $450–520M for the trial program, ~21% tax once NOLs run down, ~108M diluted shares, settlement payments complete in 2027, present values discount year-end 2028 at 12%. Scenario: Bear 2028 YUTREPIA revenue: ~$850M What has to be true: PH-ILD was ~45% of the book and new ILD starts stop; growth stalls at the Q3 run-rate in 2027, TPIP looms EPS: ~$3.0 P/E: 12x Value YE-2028: $36 PV at 12%: $28 Scenario: Base 2028 YUTREPIA revenue: ~$1.4B What has to be true: PAH share keeps climbing toward 45% of a growing category; residual off-label PH-ILD persists; SSc-RP not yet contributing EPS: ~$6.3 P/E: 15x Value YE-2028: $95 PV at 12%: $74 Scenario: Bull 2028 YUTREPIA revenue: ~$1.6B (your model) What has to be true: Your FY28 of $1.58B / EPS 8.31: category keeps compounding, PH-ILD leakage small, first expansion data EPS: ~$8.3 P/E: 18x Value YE-2028: $150 PV at 12%: $117 Cross-checks: - At $42.40 the stock is 4.3x the Q3 run-rate and ~14x the Q2 annualized EPS of $2.96, for a business compounding 30% a quarter with a 37% operating margin: the market is pricing a PH-ILD-driven stall. - Consensus FY28 EPS of $3.30 is the bear case; your model is the bull case; fiscal.ai's own revenue estimate ($1.6B FY28) sits with you. - fiscal.ai price target $54.38 (+28%), down from $107.75 in August before the ruling. The dashboard's 9% DCF on your EPS prints $257 (+507%); discount it, as it compounds your 2030 EPS at 10% for five more years. WHAT TO DO AND WHAT TO WATCH ---------------------------- Own it, sized for a stock that will move 20% on the Q4 print either way; the base case alone is +75% and the settlement removed the scenario that went to zero. - Q3 call (November): PAH vs PH-ILD mix of the patient base, new-start trends since 2026-10-13, Q4 commentary, exact settlement cash timing. - Q4 2026 print (February 2027): the first full quarter without PH-ILD promotion; sequential YUTREPIA growth above ~10% says the book held. - FDA action on the PH-ILD label supplement and any payer policy changes requiring a Group 1 diagnosis. - UTHR: IPF decision (late April 2027), ralinepag PDUFA (2027-06-24), and any new patent assertion against L606 or RE-WARM. - Insmed PALM-PAH / PALM-ILD readouts (2027–28). - RE-WARM (SSc-RP) and PH-COPD data: the first indications where YUTREPIA has no UTHR patent overhang. SOURCES ------- - Liquidia: global settlement with United Therapeutics, 2026-10-13 (globenewswire.com) — payments, PH-ILD label supplement, Q3 preliminary sales and cash - Liquidia Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (fool.com) — sales, patient and prescriber counts, category size, pipeline - United Therapeutics Q2 2026 results, 2026-08-05 (ir.unither.com) — Tyvaso DPI / nebulized Tyvaso revenue, IPF and ralinepag filings - Zacks via Yahoo Finance, 2026-09-23 — Tyvaso DPI overlap, UTHR IPF sNDA timing, Insmed TPIP Phase 3 status, ralinepag PDUFA - HCPLive, 2026-02-23 — PROSERA Phase 3 topline (seralutinib) - Agent Dashboard: LQDA Drug Commercialization result (scored on Jim's model), fiscal.ai workbook and Free CF report harvested 2026-10-24.

Fortunately, Guyana formerly known as Guiana when it was a British colony has chosen to be an oil producing country in stark contrast to the UK. In the last five years the GDP of Guyana has soared 5 fold. The UK chose a different path. Tax the oil producers in the North sea into contraction, cutting production by ~80% to 1.1M bpd. Norway is gratefully pulling out over 4M bpd.

Yes, French is quite the Dimwitted Quisling David French Has An Infinite Appetite For Ritual Humiliation thefederalist.com/2026/10/23…

$TGTX the Roche BTK looks far better but it is not a competitor to Briumvi for RRMS: $NVS vs. $RHHBY: The MS BTK Inhibitor Showdown at #MSToronto2026 🧠💊 Phase III data are out for both Novartis’s remibrutinib and Roche’s fenebrutinib (tested against Aubagio/teriflunomide in RMS). The head-to-head profile comes down to a clear trade-off: Relapse Efficacy vs. Liver Safety. ⚙️ MECHANISM & TRIALS • Novartis (remibrutinib): Covalent, irreversible oral BTKi | Phase III REMODEL-1 & REMODEL-2 • Roche (fenebrutinib): Non-covalent, reversible oral BTKi | Phase III FENhance 1 & 2 (RMS) + FENtrepid (PPMS) 📉 ANNUALIZED RELAPSE RATE (ARR) REDUCTION (Street expectations: 45%–60% needed to rival anti-CD20s like Ocrevus, Kesimpta & Briumvi) • Roche: 55% reduction (pooled) | ~1 relapse every 17 yrs ✅ (Beat expectations) • Novartis: 35.2% (REMODEL-1) & 31.2% (REMODEL-2) | ~1 relapse every 13 yrs ⚠️ (Missed Street expectations) 🎯 NEDA-3 (NO EVIDENCE OF DISEASE ACTIVITY) • Roche: 75.0% (70% reduction in risk of not achieving NEDA-3 vs. comparator) • Novartis: 55.0% (vs. 32.1% for comparator) 🧠 DISABILITY PROGRESSION & BRAIN VOLUME • Novartis: ~30% delay in 6-month confirmed disability progression (6mCDP, nominal significance); over 92% of patients progression-free at 24 months • Roche: 16% lower risk of 12-week composite confirmed disability progression (cCDP12) in RMS; 23% reduction in annual total brain volume loss; proven non-inferiority to Ocrevus in PPMS 🔬 MRI & LESION ACTIVITY • Novartis: T2 lesions reduced by 65%–70%; Gd+ T1 lesions reduced by 66% • Roche: Slowly expanding lesions (SELs) reduced by up to 30%; paramagnetic rim lesions (PRLs) reduced by 62% 🛡️ LIVER SAFETY PROFILE (The BTKi Class Hurdle) • Novartis: CLEAN. Zero liver safety signal observed, no Hy's Law cases, and numerically fewer overall AEs (79.5% vs. 81.5%) and SAEs (6.0% vs. 7.0%) than teriflunomide • Roche: ELEVATED RISK. Significantly higher liver enzyme elevations vs. comparator (likely requiring hepatic monitoring on label) 📌 REGULATORY & COMMERCIAL OUTLOOK • Novartis: Already FDA-approved as Rhapsido in CSU & symptomatic dermographism; Phase III ongoing in SPMS (REMASTER). Est. $4B+ peak sales potential. Positioned as a best-in-class safe, convenient first-line oral without chronic B-cell depletion. • Roche: Granted FDA Priority Review across both RMS & PPMS. Positioned as a high-efficacy oral powerhouse targeting both relapses and chronic "smoldering" neuroinflammation, balanced against liver monitoring requirements. ⚖️ THE VERDICT Roche wins on headline relapse efficacy and broad RMS/PPMS reach, while Novartis wins decisively on hepatic safety—giving neurologists a choice between maximum oral potency and a clean, low-monitoring safety profile.