Crypt Research | @Polymarket trader
Insiders & Trading
Joined May 2024
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gm everyone
$362 -> $555
Haven’t updated the challenge in a while, so here’s a quick recap.
over the last 3 days, I managed to make:
+$193 profit
But it wasn’t all smooth. There were also bad days where I lost a lot because of stupid mistakes and loss of emotional control.
honestly, that lesson showed me exactly where I’m weak.
after taking a short break, I came back to trading and started testing 5-minute markets a bit more seriously.
and that’s where the biggest growth happened.
Because of:
- strong volatility
- small timeframes
- and fast market reactions
it becomes possible to buy very cheap shares and flip them a few minutes later for x3–x4.
this week I’ll focus more on this market and continue the challenge.
What do you think about the progress so far?
gm everyone
yesterday was a really tough trading day.
If you were watching the BTC chart, you probably know exactly what I mean.
I came back to trading several times throughout the day
There were:
> obvious moves
> solid profits
> but also unexpected dumps and lost positions
Still, I managed to recover the balance and close the day green - even if the profit wasn’t huge.
One important thing in trading is understanding when it’s time to stop.
Not every day will be pure profit.
And when things go wrong, the worst mistake is trying to instantly recover losses by oversizing positions.
That’s how people dig themselves into an even deeper hole.
Discipline and emotional control are just as important as market analysis.
Sometimes protecting your capital is already a win.
TOP ARBITRAGE STRATEGIES FOR ANY TRADER
If you’re unaware of them, then you’re leaving most of the easy money on Polymarket
Best traders do not make predictions on the market
Instead, they search for pricing inefficiencies
1. Simple Arbitrage
Buy “YES” and “NO” if the combined price is lower than $1
One of them will have to end at $1
> you’re effectively paying less for a dollar
2. Mutual Exclusion Arbitrage
Place bets “YES” in both of the mutually exclusive markets
One of them will have to pay off
> when total cost is below $1 - that’s arbitrage
3. Contradiction Arbitrage
Bet “YES” in one market while betting “NO” in the second, which contradict each other
> the market is wrong, and you’re taking the spread
4. One-of-Many Arbitrage
Buying “NO” in many different markets
> you benefit from guaranteed profits
5. Mandatory Outcome Arbitrage
Buy “YES” in all the options of a market
One of them has to be worth $1
> total cost lower than $1 - you’re making arbitrage
Everyone tries to predict what will happen next
Great traders just search for inefficiencies
have you ever accidentally fallen into an industry - and never left?
when he exited his e-commerce company at 23, the payout came in crypto
he barely understood it at the time
and that one single event ended up changing everything for him
> got paid through a decentralized network - mostly in crypto
> fell deep into SafeMoon, BSC meme coins, Discords and Telegram
> became a full-time meme coin trader
> launched his own coin on Ethereum
> learned crypto from the inside out
> dove into prediction markets before almost everyone else
he had no experience with crypto
he learned all about it from experience
PredictTime - @tre_poh, founder of @polysights
🤝 Paid partnership
I CAUGHT THE $436,000 INSIDER
Episode 3 of PredictTime is live - and you'll hear this story straight from the source
@tre_poh, founder of @polysights. We go deep - into how his platform catches insiders on Polymarket before the news drops and into his life journey
Everything you need to know about insider trading in prediction markets - is in this episode
Timecodes:
00:00 — Cold open / Highlights
00:51 — The $436k profit case: how a $34k order paid out before the news
01:05 — Meet Tre, founder of Polysights
01:35 — How Polysights spots anomalies: radar score and wallet clusters
03:17 — What Polysights actually does: advanced analytics for prediction markets
04:00 — From aircraft engineering to the Canadian Air Force
05:01 — Entrepreneurial roots: e-commerce and dropshipping
06:13 — Selling the first company at 23 and getting paid in crypto
08:21 — Were meme coins detrimental or a launchpad into Web3?
09:46 — The "Fatherhood Buff": how a son changes drive and risk
12:03 — Rank 1 in WoW: gaming as training for founders
14:35 — From PredictFun on Blast to Polymarket: trader-first, builder-second
16:35 — Building Insider Finder: scoring every trade on Polymarket
19:34 — The Maduro case in detail: why it wasn't posted publicly
21:18 — Mayor Eric Adams dropout: prediction markets vs mainstream media
22:24 — MicroStrategy markets: 6–0 on recycled wallets
26:50 — Philosophy: why insider trading accelerates truth
30:56 — Disagreeing with Kalshi's CEO: the centralized vs decentralized divide
35:19 — If the CFTC bans insider trading: validation or death?
48:09 — Arbitrage across Polymarket, Kalshi and sportsbooks
50:48 — Why prediction markets finally boomed in 2024–2025
54:39 — Alpha decay and growing to 45,000 users
55:59 — The Bloomberg / WSJ / NYT moment
58:08 — Fundraising $1.5M from Halifax: the lead VC drama
01:02:26 — Business model: moving away from subscriptions
01:04:21 — No-code automated trading strategies as the future
01:13:20 — Roadmap: V1 by Q2 and a regulated prediction market in Canada
01:16:24 — Solo founder reality: from intern-only to an ex-Meta tech lead
01:18:46 — Crucial advice: don't build another trading terminal
01:20:27 — Breaking in with no connections, no VCs, no hub
01:24:58 — Rapid-fire: Ferrari, Bitcoin to $1M, Hyperliquid vs Kalshi
01:27:35 — The biggest insider trade he can't prove: Lord Miles
01:28:12 — Role models: CZ, Kobe, Shane, Elon
01:30:00 — Final advice: stop overthinking and take the swing
gm everyone
yesterday was a really tough trading day.
If you were watching the BTC chart, you probably know exactly what I mean.
I came back to trading several times throughout the day
There were:
> obvious moves
> solid profits
> but also unexpected dumps and lost positions
Still, I managed to recover the balance and close the day green - even if the profit wasn’t huge.
One important thing in trading is understanding when it’s time to stop.
Not every day will be pure profit.
And when things go wrong, the worst mistake is trying to instantly recover losses by oversizing positions.
That’s how people dig themselves into an even deeper hole.
Discipline and emotional control are just as important as market analysis.
Sometimes protecting your capital is already a win.
gm everyone!
yesterday I gave myself a challenge:
$300 → $1,000 in 1 month (or sooner) trading 15-minute markets
Day 1 is complete.
In just 3 hours of trading, I made: +$50 profit
to comfortably reach the goal, I only need around:
+20% per day
new day, new markets. Let’s see what today brings
current balance: $350
Hong Kong vs Seoul in Polymarket weather markets
Similar market format, but totally different depending on the time of year
Fall is the ideal season in Hong Kong:
predictable weather, ECMWF is accurate, and there are plenty of market errors
Winter is Seoul's favorite season:
the Siberian anticyclone causes extremely predictable temperatures, models work great
Spring is difficult in both locations:
fog, moisture, yellow dust, and significant differences between forecasts
Summer is when it gets complicated:
typhoons in Hong Kong, monsoons in Seoul, and no forecasts at all
The edge for Hong Kong is autumn,
while the edge for Seoul is winter
Other seasons require caution
6 Types of Arbitrage on Polymarket
Prediction markets are still full of inefficiencies
Sometimes simple math is enough to find low-risk trades with guaranteed edge
1) 3-Way Arbitrage
Used in sports markets with 3 outcomes.
If:
> YES (Team 1) + NO (Team 2) < DRAW
then one side is mispriced
2) Cross-Platform Arbitrage
Same event, different prices across platforms.
Example:
> YES = $0.68
> NO = $0.28
Total = $0.96 → guaranteed $1 payout.
3) Pre-Market Arbitrage
Used between prediction markets and token pre-markets (Hyperliquid / Binance / Bybit)
If the event probability is priced too cheaply relative to the token price:
> buy YES
> short the token
4) Single-Market Arbitrage
In binary markets:
> UP + DOWN < $1
Example:
> UP = $0.51
> DOWN = $0.46
Total = $0.97 → arbitrage opportunity
5) Multi-Outcome Arbitrage
Used in markets with multiple outcomes
Example:
> Trump = $0.40
> Biden = $0.35
> Kamala = $0.20
Total = $0.95 → guaranteed $1 payout
6) Cross-Conditional Arbitrage
Arbitrage between related markets
Example:
> YES nomination = $0.70
> NO election = $0.25
Total = $0.95
No magic - just math, inefficiencies, and market mispricing
gm everyone!
yesterday I gave myself a challenge:
$300 → $1,000 in 1 month (or sooner) trading 15-minute markets
Day 1 is complete.
In just 3 hours of trading, I made: +$50 profit
to comfortably reach the goal, I only need around:
+20% per day
new day, new markets. Let’s see what today brings
current balance: $350
gm everyone!
It’s been a while since I’ve written such casual, informal posts.
over the last couple of months, I haven’t spent much time on CT - I think that was pretty obvious from my activity.
What have I been up to?
I’ve spent most of my time trading on Polymarket and BTC.
mainly short 15-minute markets
many would say this is more like gambling
yes - platforms make their money off people’s emotions.
But when you add:
> trading skills
> risk management
> emotional control
- things start to look completely different
That’s exactly how 6 figs profits are made.
Right now, I want to set a public challenge for myself:
> $300 → $1,000 in 1 month
This isn’t a “$10 → $100k” story.
But it’s a great way to:
- discipline myself in trading
- and start actively managing my account again
Let’s see how this turns out
what do you think?
