when a sector is underperforming, anyone can write a thesis listing dozens of reasons it'll keep underperforming
the hard part is spotting the opportunity where everyone else says it's over
I believe onchain is going to come back very suddenly
seeing people say onchain/trenches is at the worst it's ever been tells me how out of touch CT has become
in the past 4 months alone:
• about half a dozen new tokens hit $100m - $300m+ market caps; $PONS went from $0 to $960m, alongside $ANSEM, $CASHCAT, $AI, $STONK, etc, all of which hit at least $300m FDV
• dozens upon dozens of new tokens hit $10m+
• we've continued to see the occasional onchain runner despite deteriorating market structure
now compare that to the months BEFORE Robinhood chain emerged, when barely anything moved for the greater part of the year
or the period after $TRUMP launched last year and before the initial emergence of BonkFun, when barely anything pumped above $2m - $5m for about half a year
THIS IS NOWHERE NEAR THE WORST THE TRENCHES HAVE EVER BEEN
obviously, conditions aren't what they were a few months ago when everything was pumping
but that doesn't mean the opportunity is gone
i think the market picks up again soon, likely MUCH faster than most people anticipate
CT is overwhelmingly dominated by doomers and toxic narratives right now
ignore 99.9% of the noise
this is when you start scooping up the dips on the high-conviction outperformers from the last rally
these are the coins that have already proven they can massively outperform
and if history is any indication, many of them won't just revisit their previous highs
they'll go MUCH higher when the next leg begins
most people will wait for confirmation
the biggest opportunities often come BEFORE the crowd changes its mind
one more leg down is a classic masterpiece that's been running since bitcoin was at $3k
the ending is always the same
they never end up getting what they want
