Co-Founder & GP @640Oxford, Beacon Manufacturing
Manhattan, NY
Joined March 2011
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Very powerful observation from Scott…
Experts live within two standard deviations of the norm and can’t imagine anything happening outside that norm.
This explains why said experts usually are very negative when reviewing early-stage venture deals. These companies are building outside these standard deviations and they struggle to extrapolate to it.
Tomorrow on Cheeky Pint: Scott Kirby from @United breaks down the airline business for @benthompson and me: how they play the gate/slot contest, Starlink changing their competitive dynamics, and how everyone needs to stop outsourcing their thinking to surveys.
My takeaway is that @nathanfielder insinuates because @ElizabethHolmes doesn’t understand basic social norms and comms (who’s on first joke) she might have unknowingly lied to investors, employees, etc…
It’s so outrageous that it makes you think it could be plausible
wow! must see. epic job @A24 and @nathanfielder.
also super interesting how A24 kept the movie super secret for 3 years - less than 10/300 employees knew it existed!
"They're not playing me. They're playing a character I created."
I have a great data collection opportunity for any robotics, frontier or data lab w/ several labor-intensive processes perfect for AI training and ergonomic video data collection:
> 65K sqft. food manufacturing and fulfillment facility in Mexico City
> Production volume: 300K lbs. fresh food processed and packaged per month
> 100+ workers directly doing quality control, fulfillment, warehousing, and manufacturing
The CEO actively looking to strike data partnerships.
DM for details
Over 1/3 of the Earth’s land is farmed or grazed, and more than half its forests are actively managed. We've only been able to provide uniform treatment b/c it's been too costly to pay close attention to plants at scale.
@electricplantco foundation model is trained across 125+ plant species and for the first time in human history allows for specialized plant care to build resilient systems.
Congrats @justinmast and the whole team.
To my VC friends: How do you answer the most commonly asked lose-lose question from LPs?
"What is your timeline for final closing? It'll help us with prioritization as we have a big backlog in our pipeline."
Sip and Guzzle #1 and it’s not even close.
Ghosting can mostly be attributed to VCs with sheep mentality. They meet a founder who seems good but they can’t generate their *own* conviction. So they delay responses and hang around the rim until a great fund commits. Then magically they’re responsive and hopping on the flight.
Random thought: VCs have literally one job when evaluating a deal: say yes or no.
Yet somehow, an entire industry has normalized a third option: ghosting.
Founders are built to be delusional. Until they hear no, they’ll keep believing it’s a maybe.
It’s 2026. You have no excuse anymore. You can plug Granola into Instinct and automate your rejections.
If someone spent an hour pitching you their life’s work, the least you can do is send them a fucking no.
I’ve now met two founders in the @a16z Speedrun batch who won’t show a product demo during a meeting.
“We don’t share proprietary information like that with investors”
What kind of ridiculous logic is being told to these founders?
Adam Gartenberg retweeted
3 months I kinda stopped tweeting and went heads down. Since then @deployconduit has:
• Signed a defense prime and multiple Tier-1 auto co's
• Brought on new teammates from ATOMS, Space-X, Hadrian, Rivian, etc
• Sold more hardware in August than in company history
and yet, we still don't have a sales or marketing org. If you're looking to join one of the fastest growing startups helping Reindustrialize America, DM or email me [email protected]
There’s a select few who are world-class both technically and commercially. Noah is that guy. His clarity of thought and purpose is next level. Sneaker choice suspect
My conversation with Noah Shinn (@noahrshinn), founder of Instinct.
Noah is building a personal AI assistant. It's still invite only, has spent nothing on marketing, and is growing roughly 10% A DAY.
This is his first long conversation about the company.
We discuss:
- Why Instinct doesn't have an app
- Buying compute months ahead of exponential demand
- How users learn to trust it with a credit card
- Safety and security
- Agents coordinating with other people's agents
- Instinct's business model
- Apps built on consumer inertia
- and more
Enjoy!
Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
4:11 What people are using AI agents for
15:07 Rethinking travel, reservations, and the internet
22:43 Trust, privacy, and personal data
27:50 The business model behind Instinct
38:04 How existing businesses will adapt
47:55 Designing a personal assistant people love
53:15 Growth, compute, and competing with Big Tech
1:11:44 What’s next for Instinct and personal AI
He still looks so uncomfortable in the pocket. All night throwing off his back foot and shoulders never squared. All points to this guy doesn’t put in the work. This game just shows Bryce not the answer.
Trust > anything else
When you've been building technology to solve a problem before the world was ready it allows you to set the bar and push intelligence forward. This is precisely @tomas_hk and the @notdiamond_ai team.
