High energy
Spain
Joined June 2010
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Andreu Orell retweeted
Many people take more pleasure in seeing a rich person lose their fortune than in seeing a poor person acquire one.
Andreu Orell retweeted
🔴 Cada semana los Servicios de Urgencias de los hospitales de las principales ciudades reciben pacientes sin ningún vínculo con España que han sido diagnosticados de una enfermedad grave en sus país y que directamente desde el aeropuerto cogen un taxi o solicitan una ambulancia.
(1/10)
Andreu Orell retweeted
Parte de la crisis de fertilidad brutal que estamos viviendo es que pasamos demasiado tiempo educando sobre el tema de como hacer para no quedarse embarazado y muy poco explicando lo difícil que es concebir.
Andreu Orell retweeted
France. A father defends his shop. His only source of income to feed his wife and children. They mock him. They beat him. They destroy everything. These are not criminals, they are terrorists. Europe is dying.
Andreu Orell retweeted
this is how you know culture is shifting rapidly. things that would have been considered unthinkable a generation ago are now happening at warp speed.
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Andreu Orell retweeted
¿Cómo sería la población de España en un mundo en el que la inmigración neta a España desde 1995 a 2026 hubiera sido cero en vez de la observada?
Para calcular este escenario, tomo la estructura de población de 1995 y asumo que la fecundidad y mortalidad por edad hubieran sido las mismas que hemos observado. Esta hipótesis no es necesariamente realista, pero sí me parece que nos da unos resultados sobre los que podemos empezar a pensar.
Cada lector puede, mentalmente, ajustar la fecundidad hacia arriba (por ejemplo, con menos inmigración el precio de la vivienda sería más bajo con casi total probabilidad) o hacia abajo (ciertos grupos de inmigrantes tienen fecundidad más alta que la media).
Particularmente, no creo que haga mucha diferencia en la práctica lo que uno asuma sobre la fecundidad: unos cientos de miles de personas en una dirección o la otra a lo sumo.
No hace falta ajustar la mortalidad: calculo tasas por edad y no creo que estas fueran diferentes en mi escenario.
Lo que más me sorprende es que la inmigración ha generado una subida de la población con respecto al escenario base de 11,1 millones (los inmigrantes y sus hijos nacidos en España), pero el porcentaje de población de 15 a 64 años apenas ha cambiado: tenemos un 66,3% en ese tramo frente al 64,2% en el escenario base.
Y ese cambio de 64,2% a 66,3% no solo no resuelve nada, sino que empeora las cosas. Dado que tenemos un Estado del bienestar altamente redistributivo y la mayoría de la inmigración ha sido de baja cualificación (que son personas con valor presente descontado negativo para el presupuesto público, sí, también en equilibrio general), casi seguro que hemos empeorado la sostenibilidad de las cuentas públicas en el largo plazo.
Hemos cambiado España de manera muy profunda y lo hemos hecho sin pensar mucho en las consecuencias.
Andreu Orell retweeted
I see this old vid going viral, and as usual the kids are drawing the wrong conclusions, so gather 'round and learn something.
Location wasn't silly or unimportant at the time: it was a core consumer app category, arguably more important than photo sharing. If you now assume you'll have a Google/Apple map full of rich location data, it's because of what that generation of apps built.
Sam ultimately failed with Loopt because he made two big wrong-way bets:
1. He bet on carriers rather than Apple/Google being who controlled the mobile experience, spending years doing deals with Sprint, Boost, etc. Then the App Store launched (yes, there was no app store for a long time), and he was caught wrong-footed.
2. Loopt's UX concept was too early and wrong. Like Find My or Snap Map now, he assumed users would be constantly sharing their location as a key part of the social experience. But most phones didn't even have GPS, or if they did 3p apps couldn't access location in the background, so the experience sucked.
Foursquare and Gowalla (acq. by Facebook) actually imposed work on the user, having them 'check in' to locations, and using 'game mechanics' (for a while the hottest UX paradigm) to want you to be the 'mayor' of your favorite bar. That eventually provided the rich data the social networks needed (and which Facebook and Google eventually rolled out to everyone).
Why did Dennis Crowley at Foursquare get it right and Sam wrong? Because Crowley had created Dodgeball, an app that let you check in via text and he understood the right UX. As with Twitter, the initial UX concepts often appear in texting but eventually succeed as a standalone app (consider what that means for AI app Instinct now).
Sam has a scene at the Loopt office in my memoir 'Chaos Monkeys' as he was assigned as our mentor during YC (my co-founders were too rattled by his intense style, and I'd go alone). He absolutely saved our ass by doing us a big favor once, something I'm still grateful for.
After Loopt's failure, Sam was mostly known for racing his Nissan GT-R up and down El Camino and writing $5k checks as a Sequoia scout. Even some YC founders snickered at PG's characterization of him as a founder comparable to Jobs.
Amnesiac tech loves retconning history, considering our present configuration of pixels and people as fated, created by providential men who arrived at the right time with the right idea and rode off into history. Those who lived through it realize that if we rolled the dice 100 times, in very few scenarios did we end up where we are today.
The way to cure whatever belief you have in 'great man' theories is to meet the man before the world had deemed him great. There were a lot of Sams running around doing demos like this then.
And BTW, that isn't a diner. That's Tres Amigos taqueria in Half Moon Bay. Scoble was the biggest consumer tech influencer of the time, and every consumer founder had to make their pilgrimage there to pitch him since he lived there.
This is Sam Altman at 25 years old, pitching Loopt to a person in a diner
It’s strange to watch now because he runs one of the most influential companies in the world
The app was a location-sharing app but nobody thinks about it when they think of Sam
It got me wondering how many founders are probably in their Loopt era rn?
The company they’re working on may not be the one they become known for
It might just be the company that teaches them how to sell, hire, raise money, and keep going long enough to find "it"
But at the time, it looks like a kid trying to explain a weird location app to a stranger over lunch
Andreu Orell retweeted
Dario has written that we need to “pace the frontier,” and Sam has agreed. People may be surprised by my response: go ahead.
You guys are the frontier. By any reasonable metric — market share, revenue growth, model capability — the two of you have a duopoly on frontier intelligence. You’ve also claimed the lead is widening because of recursive self-improvement.
I don’t see what you see in the lab. If the unreleased models are scary enough that you think you should slow down, I support your decision to be responsible.
But stop pretending you need anyone else’s permission. Stop pretending antitrust law has to be suspended so you can form a cartel. Stop pretending you need a regulatory approval process that supersedes product liability. Stop pretending METR is independent when it is intertwined with Anthropic’s investors and staff. Stop pretending you need those same evaluators to police competitors who aren’t even at the frontier.
Most of all, stop pretending the motivation to slow down is purely altruistic. You face massive product-liability exposure if your products enable a truly damaging cyberattack. The market already punishes models that behave in unpredictable or unauthorized ways. After the Hugging Face episode, it is simply good business for OpenAI and Anthropic to trade some raw power for reliability and predictability. Call it alignment if you want. It is also just giving customers what they want.
Pacing the frontier would also create breathing room for a more intelligent conversation about regulation than Bernie Sanders’ “shut it all down.” China is very unlikely to join a global agreement, as you know, and that has to be taken into account as well.
So go ahead and pace the frontier. You are the ones setting it. The easiest way not to build superintelligence is for you to agree not to build it. Demanding your preferred regulatory framework as the price of that will look like blackmail of the public and the political system. So just do it.
If you do, you’ll buy goodwill for the next conversation. If you don’t, we’ll know this was just another bid for regulatory capture — or an election-season psyop.
Andreu Orell retweeted
This is going to destroy relationships. It's over. Boyfriends are cooked. Nuked from orbit. Toasted. Fried. 💀💀💀
Andreu Orell retweeted
meta already built the best ad targeting system on earth by inferring who you are without requiring explicit intent.
muse could give it the missing layer which is explicit context. your net worth through finance connectors, purchases across the broader internet through email, how you actually spend your time through calendar, etc.
if this works meta’s behavioral graph becomes a personal context graph. that’s a pretty insane extension of an already powerful data flywheel.
the irony is that much of this new intelligence may come from google which should obviously be playing the same game but hasn’t quite put any of the pieces together at all.
Andreu Orell retweeted
I have followed $META in depth for years, so I say this with all the seriousness that comes with it, but this is $META ‘s most important product/platform since WA and IG.
This finally transitions the $META social media ecosystem to a social commerce ecosystem with a vastly bigger TAM.
$META lauches Muse their personal AI agent.
$META will go hard at this. This is their holy grail and they have the distribution and data to take the lead here.
The first step is already very strong as each person will have their own VM. Not many companies have the infra capacity & muscle to do this…
Andreu Orell retweeted
Este es un problema multifactorial y muy complejo. Pero me sorprende que no se hable apenas de que en muchas aulas hay un 40-50% e incluso mas alumnos cuya lengua materna no es el castellano y que se comunican a duras penas. Pero que tienen que pasar curso si o si.
Solo tienes que hablar con docentes para entenderlo.
Cada vez mas diferencias y la media mas baja. Un desastre.
🔴 ÚLTIMA HORA | Los alumnos españoles se hunden en matemáticas y lectura en el Informe PISA y obtienen el peor resultado de su historia elpais.com/educacion/2026-09…
Andreu Orell retweeted
Incredible. Jensen is completing the circle.
- Bankers don’t like GPUs as collateral because the depreciation is unpredictable
- It’s unpredictable because a new GPU can obsolete an old one
- Jensen knows his own roadmap
- so he’s offering depreciation insurance to the banks
- the depreciation insurance (up to 25%) helps the banks get marginal deals over the line
Speculation
- Nvidia will also advise the banks on “reference designs” for datacenters that will make them fungible
- Having them be fungible means that the debt can repackaged into Asset Backed Securities, Collateralized Loan Obligations and Collateralized Debt Obligation (ABS, CLOs and CDOs from 2008 haha)
- This allows tranching to get investment grade ratings on the debt so that it can be resold to pension funds and insurance firms
- It also allows the banks to trade idiosyncratic project specific credit risk for sector wide credit risk
So Jensen is trying to get his customers the same cost of financing as real estate rather than venture equity.
This is going to move the data center game out of the VCs and into the big leagues.
Andreu Orell retweeted
la verdad es que los 30 son una edad curiosa
se acabó el "potencial". aquí es donde se cristalizan las malas y las buenas decisiones de la década anterior
los sacrificios o la falta de ellos empiezan a pagar dividendos o cobrar intereses
ves a tu entorno y notas que las trayectorias vitales empiezan a separarse: hay gente con la vida ya encarrilada y otros jugando a tener 22 pero con menos pelo, más ojeras y peor forma física
y por mucho que ciertos sectores de la sociedad intenten negarlo, la presión llega antes y es mucho más alta para las mujeres. al final la biología no entiende de narrativas
a los 30, las malas decisiones en parejas tóxicas o que no iban a ninguna parte, en fake email jobs o en perder el tiempo fluyendo empiezan a angustiar
en fin. es la edad en la que asimilas que el tutorial se acabó hace mucho y que estabas jugando la partida de verdad
Andreu Orell retweeted
.@DHH says successful founders have a moral obligation to buy a Ferrari:
“You have an obligation, if you sell a product or service and you make a lot of money on it, to put that money back into the system. Send some of that money to the craftsmen of Italy to create you a beautiful Ferrari.”
“I think that's a good part of capitalism.”
“We want to better our lot and some of that is material, and there's no shame in that whatsoever.”
“We would not have Ferraris to pine for if no one bought them. And who can buy them? The people who've been successful in other parts of business.”
“Therefore it is your moral obligation to buy a Ferrari if you do really well (or Lamborghini or Pagani or whatever floats your boat).”
“You should be sending this forward. This is how we get to have nice things.
“Not everything can just be boiled down to needs. Man needs more than just bread to live. We need beautiful Ferraris, even if we don't own them.”
My conversation with @dhh, co-founder of @37signals.
0:00 Cutting Rework From 50,000 Words To 25,000
2:54 Basecamp Was Built In 380 Hours
6:46 Unlimited Resources Build A Blob
10:22 Terminator Beats Avatar By A 1000x
15:24 The Printer DHH Never Wants To Upgrade
17:31 Millions In Profit From 16 Year-Old Software
20:10 The Beauty Of A Finished Product
22:54 I Would Quit Before Working In An Office
25:41 Four Uninterrupted Hours Or The Day Is Lost
31:21 Tobi Lütke Saw The AI Future First
38:51 Apple Pissed Him Off Enough To Switch
42:47 The 19 Year-Old Who Beat Apple
47:16 If Nobody Else Will Build It, I Will
52:02 The Need For Control, Independence, And Freedom
53:44 Chef's Choice, Not A Construction-Kit Burger
56:50 A New Computer Ready In 2 Minutes
1:00:33 A Cheaper Mac Will Never Win
1:02:27 The Best Ideas Sound Stupid At First
1:03:47 Out-Teach Your Competition
1:06:57 The Algorithms Broke Reciprocity
1:10:53 No Investors Is Freedom. No Customers Is Transcendence.
1:13:25 No One Gets To Tell Me What To Do
1:16:49 Your Moral Obligation To Buy A Ferrari
1:23:19 Costs Are The Only Thing You Control
1:26:49 Bezos Paid For The Promise
1:30:17 The Confidence To Say No To Everyone
1:32:59 The Day A Third Of The Company Left
1:36:49 Marc Andreessen Came To Help
Includes paid partnerships.
Andreu Orell retweeted
🇪🇺 Chat Control has passed 😔
They can and will now legally scan any person's messages, emails and photos you send without a warrant
The way they passed this law when the majority of the European Parliament was against it will shock you:
They waited until most EP members were on holiday so only a few were present and then created an "urgent" vote for it to pass it through
There's nothing democratic about any of it and big powerful forces are behind this that can manipulate the EU for whatever they want
Democracy in Europe died a bit today 😔
