Investing Account, looking for nice ideas and hoping to help others along the way! I don't give financial advice but am happy to receive it!
Joined February 2021
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BigBCarreg retweeted
Wow wow. I was right. At the bottom of the PR: 🚨🚨. “The company also has access to further launches for U.S. Government missions alongside its Defense Priorities and Allocations System (DPAS) rated program.”🚨🚨
This means very specific purchase orders were made by the USG. THEY ARE DEFINITELY ANNOUNCING MORE THINGS ON EARNINGS. This is new information.
🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨
$ASTS
BigBCarreg retweeted
$ASTS: ICYMI, the 10Q filed on August 10, 2026, noted: "We have entered into launch agreements with multiple launch service providers which will enable us to continue our planned launch campaign to launch over 60 Block 2 BB satellites."
Today's PR indicates: "The Blacklift announcement supplements AST SpaceMobile’s contracted multi-partner orbital launch strategy. AST SpaceMobile will continue to use external providers, with agreements now covering in total over 100 BlueBird satellites to be deployed cumulatively between 2027 and 2028. The company also has access to further launches for U.S. Government missions alongside its Defense Priorities and Allocations System (DPAS) rated program."
So @AST_SpaceMobile booked launches for another 40+ BlueBirds, but it is not clear with who. Excited for Monday! At a minimum I suspect more @SpaceX and @blueorigin, but also in the cards are of course the obvious ones: @MHI_GroupJP, @ulalaunch, and @Arianespace. I am also extremely interested in @relativityspace which is working on Terran R that can launch 5 BBs at a time on a reuseable basis.
BigBCarreg retweeted
$ASTS: A couple years from now many will wonder how those who held through the volatility ever got so lucky
We are done waiting. We are on to satellite 51 - the largest spacecrafts ever in LEO! and we are not stopping. Blacklift: built for BlueBird, built to fly!. Join me at the unveiling webcast event on Thursday, November 12 investors.ast-science.com/ 🤠🇺🇸
Already have agreements for over 100 Bb launches with external providers.
Production through to BB51 underway.
Long term launch plans.
Couldn’t have asked for much more today.
AST SpaceMobile to Build Own 20-Ton Rocket to Deploy BlueBird Satellites in Low Earth Orbit Using Miranda Engines from Firefly Aerospace.
businesswire.com/news/home/2…
#ASTSpaceMobile #Broadband #ConnectingtheUnconnected #BlueBirds #Blacklift
BigBCarreg retweeted
$ASTS
I've held $ASTS since the de-SPAC and bought everywhere from $2 to over $100. Now I'm looking hard at the opportunity cost and asking whether my money is in the right place for what's next. I don't think I'm alone.
Some of the drop is macro, a soft sector, and fading momentum. But relative to the rest of the sector, we do struggle with communication and dare I say, credibility. Timeline after timeline from earnings calls has slipped: satellites in orbit, commercial service, and the government contract details we were told were coming. Some of this has been out of our control - but communication is always available to management.
Management, here's what long-term holders need on the next call:
1️⃣ Production: How many BlueBirds were completed in each of July, August, and September? On what date will Midland hit a sustained 6 per month? Investors need to gauge production process. If we cannot meet 6 per month, then all future financial projections should be called into question.
2️⃣ Launches: Give us the launch-by-launch schedule through mid-2027, with the target month, and the number of satellites on each one. Which are under signed contract, and which are still tentative?
3️⃣ Government: Name the government agreements that are actually signed, their dollar value, and how long they run. Which of the contracts that were touted are still pending, and by what date will they be disclosed?
4️⃣ Capital: In July you raised $1.15B in convertible notes. You said the money would "secure additional access to orbit" and fund "partnerships and/or acquisitions to further vertically integrate" and reduce reliance on third-party launch providers, and you also said there were no agreements yet. Three months later, what launch access has that money actually secured, and what vertical-integration deals have been signed? How much of the $1.15B has been spent, and on what? With over $3.7B in pro forma cash, what's the quarterly burn through 2027, and is another raise coming?
In this market we don't need more optimism. We need numbers, dates, and commitments that get met. I believe that the mission of this company is going to change lives, create a ton of value, and is in the end quite noble.
I understand space is hard and expensive and timelines can shift. In the last few years I have learned more about spectrum, wavelengths, and regulatory requirements than I ever thought I would. I believe the technology is superior to anything else available and that the first principles approach has been dead on from the beginning.
That being said, we are competing in a field with the richest and most successful business men ever to have lived. The odds are certainly stacked against us, and timing here is everything. I think Space growth is going to be a defining shift in the trajectory of humanity akin to the railroad, international shipping, computing, and the internet. This is a huge opportunity that generations after us will wish they had a chance to invest in - but I have to ask whether I have backed the right horse at the right time. I believe I have, but I need more from our leadership at this pivotal moment.
Hold tight, Spacemob. 🛰️
youtube.com/watch?v=jRbj25q-…
Fantastic video highlighting some of the biggest scams in supplements...
This is big for $ASTS
Shows the importance of owning your own satellites. Unfortunately a little early still!
BigBCarreg retweeted
What the Russians won't tell you is that the Boombox concerts at the Blockbuster Mall were on May 16–17, when Kyiv was not under near round-the-clock air alerts as it has been since August.
They will also not tell you that the venue has the largest certified bomb shelter in Ukraine and can accommodate 25,000 people (more than twice the estimated number of attendees), which is the only reason a large event can be held there at all.
They will also not tell you that this was a one-off: two nights, the band's first solo shows at home in four years. And they will not tell you that when the same band played the same venue at the Atlas festival last year, an air alert stopped the show and sent the crowd underground.
They will also not tell you about the Dovzhenko Studios in Kyiv and the Brudnyi Pes festival that ran there on June 13–14. The festival closed late in the night and the Russians hit the studios in the early hours of the morning — they damaged 18 buildings and burned 100,000 historic costumes, which you might recall seeing in the news.
A concert is one site with one shelter and a few hours. An election means thousands of polling stations open all day across the country, millions of voters including soldiers at the front and refugees abroad, and a campaign before it. It’s a facile comparison that only Russian propaganda would make.
Fuck the Russians who are trying to turn the rare times Ukrainians try to have a semblance of normal life, in a bomb shelter's parking lot and between sirens, into a propaganda prop.
BigBCarreg retweeted
Until a full constellation is in orbit, $ASTS is a story stock. Ground breaking innovative tech that is a category creator in an industry everyone deemed niche and not worth even trying.
And thanks to (mainly) retail investors buying into that story, they’ve managed to raise billions (rightfully so). They’ve proven that the D2D market is worth pursuing.
The script has now flipped with new behemoth entrants whether SpaceX and now Amazon whom can easily outfund any rival and buy there way into success. What might’ve worked in the company’s early days, doesn’t and will not work now.
If you aren’t putting effort to shape the narrative and relying on the SpaceMob to dig into filings and break the news to tell the story on your behalf, your rivals will graciously do it for you.
$ASTS is a story stock until proven otherwise and if they don’t tell the story those betting against them will.
BigBCarreg retweeted
$ASTS: 🚨🇺🇸🇯🇵JOINT STATEMENT ON US-JAPAN TECHNOLOGY PROSPERITY DEAL HIGHLIGHTS AST SPACEMOBILE-RAKUTEN JOINT DEVELOPMENT AND DEPLOYMENT OF LEO SATELLITE INFRASTRUCTURE
The U.S. and Japanese governments are now jointly promoting AST SpaceMobile + Rakuten under the U.S.–Japan Technology Prosperity Deal for the development and deployment of LEO satellite infrastructure. That effectively places AST inside the broader strategic and economic relationship between the two countries.
The significance is that AST/Rakuten is being framed not just as a telecom service, but as infrastructure that can advance economic development, technological leadership, resilient communications and national strategic interests. It seems very clear that the AST/Rakuten JV project aligns with priorities both US and Japanese governments want to see built, funded and scaled.
This fits directly with the broader J-LEO opportunity and AST’s potential access to substantial non-dilutive government-backed capital. Japan wants sovereign, resilient next-generation connectivity, while the U.S. wants trusted American technology deployed across allied markets. AST + Rakuten sits right at the intersection of those objectives — commercial growth backed by strategic alignment at the government-to-government level.
Full PR from US State Department: state.gov/releases/office-of…
BigBCarreg retweeted
BlueBird 11. Fully deployed.
All 13 satellites - 20,000 sq ft of phased arrays in orbit - performing as planned.
American innovation built for space based cellular broadband, resilience, and security. 🇺🇸🌎📶📱
BigBCarreg retweeted
$ASTS Guess what's gonna travel 75% of state Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, a little bit of Mississippi and finally into Florida and weigh 129k pounds? First satellite shipment confirmed.
BigBCarreg retweeted
1/ The UK Space Strategy has launched! 🇬🇧🚀🛰️
The strategy outlines our plan to make the UK a competitive space power, backed by over £7.8bn in funding.
Read more 👉 gov.uk/government/news/new-s…
Read the UK Space Strategy 👉 gov.uk/government/publicatio…
ALT The UK and Ireland taken from the International Space Station. Credit: ESA
BigBCarreg retweeted
$ASTS: 🚨🇯🇵 JAPAN'S MINISTRY OF INTERNAL AFFAIRS AND COMMUNICATIONS FILES A NEW 136 SATELLITE CONSTELLATION AT THE ITU UNDER "J-BLUEBIRD-NGSO" DESIGNATION
On 9/4, Japan’s MIC formally filed a new satellite constellation with the ITU called J-BLUEBIRD-NGSO. This is not a third-party label or speculation --> the Japanese government itself is filing a constellation under AST SpaceMobile's BlueBird satellite name.
The filing package describes a steerable, high-gain communications system with broad frequency use and coverage across the visible Earth, and the associated constellation data points to 136 satellites across 34 orbital planes. That is not the footprint of a small pilot. That is the architecture of a full-scale sovereign communications constellation.
Now put this together with everything else we already know: Rakuten/RAST was selected for Japan’s J-LEO program, Japan has discussed up to ~$1B of government capital, Rakuten has said J-LEO is separate from its ordinary commercial AST service, and it has openly talked about creating Japan’s first “Japanese-flagged” LEO satellite. The pieces are starting to line up in a very big way.
AST SpaceMobile is looking at something far larger than just selling capacity to Rakuten --> it could be serving the government of Japan. Dedicated satellites, launches, ground infrastructure and a sovereign Japanese network built around AST’s platform. That is a completely different magnitude of opportunity.
The biggest takeaway. Japan is effectively saying, “we want our own BlueBird constellation,” and this could become the template for other countries that want sovereign space infrastructure without developing an entire LEO platform from scratch. AST may not just be building one global network — it could end up becoming the underlying platform for national satellite networks around the world for the US, Japan, the European Union, Brasil and more.
ITU reference: J2026‑83391
BigBCarreg retweeted
$ASTS: 🇯🇵 Put the word out there, we back up
楽天が26年内に衛星通信 スペースXに対抗
nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUC0…
米衛星通信のASTと組み、スマホの直接通信サービスを始めます。スターリンクではまだ対応していないビデオ通話を武器に、先行するスペースXを追います。
BigBCarreg retweeted
1/ $ASTS: 🚨 BERENBERG INITIATES RESEARCH COVERAGE OF AST SPACEMOBILE WITH A BUY RATING AND $92 PRICE TARGET
The carriers’ constellation; initiate at Buy
A winning space-based direct-to-device strategy: AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is the only company to have demonstrated true cellular broadband from space to unmodified smartphones. It approaches commercial operations in 2027 with pieces its competitors lack, including 60+ mobile network operator (MNO) partnerships covering c3bn subscribers, premium low-band access plus owned L-band and S-band spectrum, and a growing government/defence franchise. The key to the story is that ASTS complements rather than competes with carriers like AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone and Rakuten. We see asymmetric risk-reward, with rapid revenue growth at extraordinary margins once continuous service launches in 2027 and multiple catalysts along the way. We initiate with a Buy rating and $92 price target.
A locked-in carrier ecosystem covering c3bn subscribers: ASTS has more than 60 MNO partnerships, with definitive commercial agreements signed with AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone and others globally. Exclusivity in the US and Europe, shared low-band spectrum, and carrier-funded ground infrastructure make these partnerships sticky and self-reinforcing so long as ASTS delivers, which we believe it can. Carriers view direct-to-device as complementary coverage providing incremental high-margin revenue and the best defence against Starlink disintermediation.
A spectrum moat underpins the model: ASTS holds usage rights to 45MHz of Ligado mid-band L-band spectrum in the US plus 60MHz of licensed S-band, alongside access to its MNO partners’ premium low-band. Launch is the near-term bottleneck, but spectrum is the long-term binding constraint in direct-to-device. The revenue-share model gives ASTS premium licensed low-band without buying it, which is an asset Starlink has had to acquire at great cost or chase by becoming a carrier itself. Carriers contribute their most strategic asset precisely because ASTS does not disintermediate them, making the ecosystem both a distribution channel and a moat that is structurally difficult to replicate.
An exponential revenue and profitability inflection: We expect AST to reach 45+ BlueBird satellites enabling continuous service in key markets by mid-2027, supporting revenue of c$655m in 2027, scaling to $4.5bn in 2030 at 75%+ EBITDA margins. That may look aggressive, but it requires paid uptake from less than 3.5% of partner subscribers. Take rates of c30% in North America, 10% in Europe and Japan, and 4% elsewhere would drive a potential $9bn revenue opportunity by 2035 at 80%+ EBITDA margins.
A story rich with potential positive catalysts: Catalysts include the finalised award of Japan-LEO, a formalised JV between T-Mobile and ASTS partners AT&T and Verizon for direct-to-device, a potential agreement between ASTS and T-Mobile, launch updates, new government contracts, the start of beta service, and spectrum announcements (eg Grain Management).
Valuation: We value ASTS on 15x 2030 EBITDA discounted back at 15%.
BigBCarreg retweeted
$ASTS: ☕️ Grab a coffee and take 10 minutes to read this report by German investment bank Berenberg. This is probably the best AST SpaceMobile initiation of coverage research I've read. It's very clear this analyst has done their homework and understands the thesis very well. Their Blue Sky scenario is $242 per share.
1/ $ASTS: 🚨 BERENBERG INITIATES RESEARCH COVERAGE OF AST SPACEMOBILE WITH A BUY RATING AND $92 PRICE TARGET
The carriers’ constellation; initiate at Buy
A winning space-based direct-to-device strategy: AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is the only company to have demonstrated true cellular broadband from space to unmodified smartphones. It approaches commercial operations in 2027 with pieces its competitors lack, including 60+ mobile network operator (MNO) partnerships covering c3bn subscribers, premium low-band access plus owned L-band and S-band spectrum, and a growing government/defence franchise. The key to the story is that ASTS complements rather than competes with carriers like AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone and Rakuten. We see asymmetric risk-reward, with rapid revenue growth at extraordinary margins once continuous service launches in 2027 and multiple catalysts along the way. We initiate with a Buy rating and $92 price target.
A locked-in carrier ecosystem covering c3bn subscribers: ASTS has more than 60 MNO partnerships, with definitive commercial agreements signed with AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone and others globally. Exclusivity in the US and Europe, shared low-band spectrum, and carrier-funded ground infrastructure make these partnerships sticky and self-reinforcing so long as ASTS delivers, which we believe it can. Carriers view direct-to-device as complementary coverage providing incremental high-margin revenue and the best defence against Starlink disintermediation.
A spectrum moat underpins the model: ASTS holds usage rights to 45MHz of Ligado mid-band L-band spectrum in the US plus 60MHz of licensed S-band, alongside access to its MNO partners’ premium low-band. Launch is the near-term bottleneck, but spectrum is the long-term binding constraint in direct-to-device. The revenue-share model gives ASTS premium licensed low-band without buying it, which is an asset Starlink has had to acquire at great cost or chase by becoming a carrier itself. Carriers contribute their most strategic asset precisely because ASTS does not disintermediate them, making the ecosystem both a distribution channel and a moat that is structurally difficult to replicate.
An exponential revenue and profitability inflection: We expect AST to reach 45+ BlueBird satellites enabling continuous service in key markets by mid-2027, supporting revenue of c$655m in 2027, scaling to $4.5bn in 2030 at 75%+ EBITDA margins. That may look aggressive, but it requires paid uptake from less than 3.5% of partner subscribers. Take rates of c30% in North America, 10% in Europe and Japan, and 4% elsewhere would drive a potential $9bn revenue opportunity by 2035 at 80%+ EBITDA margins.
A story rich with potential positive catalysts: Catalysts include the finalised award of Japan-LEO, a formalised JV between T-Mobile and ASTS partners AT&T and Verizon for direct-to-device, a potential agreement between ASTS and T-Mobile, launch updates, new government contracts, the start of beta service, and spectrum announcements (eg Grain Management).
Valuation: We value ASTS on 15x 2030 EBITDA discounted back at 15%.
BigBCarreg retweeted
$ASTS truly confused why @AST_SpaceMobile wouldn’t post this video. This is great PR material
$ASTS 2degrees (NZ):
Today, we celebrate the official opening of the 2degrees Marton Satellite Ground Station – one of the first commercial AST SpaceMobile ground stations in the world.
This marks amajor step toward us offering 2degrees satellite connectivity.
Behind this milestone is significant work from our teams and partners. We’ve invested in locally supported, in-country infrastructure at Marton and integrated it with the global AST SpaceMobile network and our own.
We have successfully made voice calls, video calls, and sent SMS and used data over the service, and are excited about what this will enable for our customers.
We’re preparing for a future where customers can move easily between terrestrial and satellite networks - extending connectivity to remote roads, farms, backcountry, communities and workers where conventional infrastructure has been difficult or uneconomic to deploy.
We’re proud to be among the early movers globally - because it’s only fair that more Kiwis can stay connected, wherever they are.
BigBCarreg retweeted
$ASTS: Comments from Former Director at SpaceX - Expert Network Interview Part 2
"I would say that the SpaceX approach is the temporary arrangement. I think AST is the more durable approach because of the investment. SpaceX is never afraid of a fight. They come in, and everything is always really contentious. AST is trying to play nice. In fact, they are benefiting, oftentimes as is Amazon, from getting to be satellite good cop to SpaceX's bad cop."
"Because SpaceX is such a bad cop, they are really mean and really aggressive, everybody else can come off looking pretty good. I think that their approach of working with mobile operators, they're going to catch more flies with honey than they will with vinegar, like SpaceX."
"I think [AST SpaceMobile] do have the possibility of having a much more durable, ongoing relationship with the mobile operators and access to more spectrum than SpaceX would be able to get access to because of that. The mobile operators are in this weird position. We can talk about the technical stuff in a minute. If AST can pull this off and be like 5G from the sky, that's going to be great for their mobile operator partners, because they all hold licenses for large geographic areas."