Bilqis Al-lahabi بلقيس اللهبي

My analysis for @SanaaCenter on the recent development and consequences of the Houthi control of areas around Bab Almandab Strait. 👇 The #Houthis’ capture of territory around the Bab al-Mandab marks a turning point in Yemen’s 12-year conflict, one with implications that extend beyond the country’s borders. It could reshape the domestic balance of power while creating new risks in one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints. The withdrawal of government forces led by #PLC member Tareq Saleh significantly weakens the anti-Houthi camp, which is mired in an environment of deep division and mistrust. The recent setbacks call for drastic reform of the government’s political and military leadership, as well as its media strategy, to avoid further disaster. For civilians, the consequences of the sudden territorial change are likely to be severe, potentially triggering another wave of displacement in areas that have already endured repeated rounds of forced displacement. The broader strategic significance lies in the Houthis’ proximity to the Bab al-Mandab. If they consolidate around the strait, Iran will gain additional strategic leverage against the United States and its allies, complementing its influence in the Strait of Hormuz. This would give both Iran and the Houthis greater capacity to threaten global shipping and energy flows. Control of Mayyun is particularly significant. Its location at the entrance to the Bab al-Mandab gives the Houthis the potential to threaten or disrupt maritime traffic even with limited military capabilities. Their presence could also complicate the security environment of the United States and its allies in #Djibouti, and of any Israeli military footprint in Somaliland, which the Houthis have repeatedly threatened. It could also enable them to expand their presence in the Horn of Africa and strengthen their connections with Al-Shabaab and other non-state armed actors. Beyond actual attacks, the perception that the Bab al-Mandab is unsafe could itself be enough to drive shipping companies to reroute vessels around #Africa, increasing costs and reducing traffic through the #Suez Canal, with direct implications for the Egyptian economy. The Houthis’ territorial gains also provide the group with greater strategic depth and access to new population centers. This could potentially facilitate recruitment and ease the movement of weapons and smuggling networks, while putting further pressure on Marib, Shabwa, and Hadramawt. Marib, with its oil and gas reserves, is likely the group’s next strategic objective. #Saudi_Arabia faces an acute dilemma; accepting the new reality risks conceding control of a strategic chokepoint, attempting to reverse it militarily could trigger an escalation with the Houthis, potentially leading to more attacks on the Kingdom, including potential ground attacks along the border. The #Bab_al_Mandab is therefore not just another front in Yemen’s war: it is becoming a test of regional and international power, and of the security of one of the world’s most vital maritime arteries. It is not just a dilemma for #Yemen or #Riyadh, but for the world.