Godfather of crypto options circa day 2012. Banned from r/WSB for talking crypto in 2015

Joined May 2010
BTCVIX retweeted
A Bitcoin treasury company (@Datavault_ai $DVLT) just crashed because they informed investors that they haven't been able to withdraw BTC from the exchange (@BiconomyCom) that is holding all their treasury funds after 4 months of transfer requests.
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BTCVIX retweeted
“Now we’re spending a lot of time in how to make Robinhood Chain even bigger, how to support the community, we know we’ve been hearing from a lot of builders that we could be doing more to support the community, and I think you should expect us to really ramp that up.” - @vladtenev on Robinhood Chain Hmm… Thinking it’s obvious everyone should be more bullish 🤔
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Bitcoin is 119 days off the June 30 bottom ($58.5K). At day 119 in past cycles, the next ATH was still: 2015: 652 days away 2018: 597 days away 2022: 350 days away Each cycle cut the wait by an average of ~27%. Do it again → ~256 days. That's a new ATH around July 2027. The bottom is the easy part. The wait is the hard part.
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BTCVIX retweeted
Bitcoin has historically bounced back after every US midterm election cycle. Could history repeat itself in the next cycle? Traders will be watching closely for another potential recovery.
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BTCVIX retweeted
Most days I don't trade. That's not a bad day. That IS the job. Episode 29 of the of the Whiteboard series is live: my exact daily routine, start to finish. Check it out below
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32 thousand people in attendance to watch the game on the jumbotron. I love Milwaukee!
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I don't read individual numbers on the footprint. Look at the cluster shading at highs and lows. Was there a lot of buying or selling there? Lots of buying at a high, lots of selling at a low. That's what I want to see. Selling at a high or buying at a low is what I DON'T want to see. Watch for ZONES of new positioning (multiple clusters), not single ticks 🫡
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BTCVIX retweeted
If accurate (always a big if), just looks like mutually high turnout to me. Dems running between 2024 and 2022. They should run better than 2022 in the early vote just because of the environment; doesn’t mean E-day will be like 2024 in a midterm. GOP running above 2022, which looks great considering they have a huge e-day reserve from 2024.
Urban turnout is matching 2024 while rural turnout struggles to keep up with the urban turnout.
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BTCVIX retweeted
the number of bets you need depends on your price and your edge, not a round number like 1,000. a 4% edge at -110 needs about 2,260 bets before expected profit sits 2 standard errors above zero. at +300 it needs about 7,700. a 2% edge at -110 needs about 9,070. price sets the noise on every bet, and the edge is squared in the formula, so halving your edge takes about 4x the bets.
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This is super bullish. Arthur Hayes has the weakest hands in crypto. According to AI, 80% of the time when Arthur Hayes tweets "I sold" after a market drop it marks a local bottom. Strong BTFD signal.
I dumped it all. The Maelstrom directional book, took profits on $ETH, $ENA, $UNI and other shitcoins. I think we gotta go down to go up. It looks a bit dicey out there in macro and geopolitical land. Going to sit on the sidelines and wait for the all clear signal … Brrrrr
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Retail traders are gone from BTC futures markets, the exact opposite of what we saw at the top.
Bitcoin futures market right now
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The McRib is back on 10/27. BTC historically goes up >2x after the McRib returns. Don't fade the McRib. Not financial advice.
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The Economist cover remains undefeated.
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BTCVIX retweeted
National polls aren't really herding. That usually means an even bigger miss against Republicans. October polls herded in 2022 and they ended up being very accurate. They didn't herd in 2020 and we ended up with a massive miss, especially by the ones who didn't herd closer.
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Inbox: @PrizePicks launched its digital rips product for trading cards. Users will have a chance to win four cards valued at more than $2 million, including a Cooper Flagg 1/1 worth $8 million. More to come via @ShortPrintMedia
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🏀 NBA Model Edge Props! 🎮 8 plays across BOS-DET, PHI-NYK and OKC-SAS. Opening night props where our model beats the book's implied odds.
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🚨Pokémon cards are now OUT-EARNING perps in crypto. Solana-based Collector Crypt has surpassed both Hyperliquid and Papertrade in 24-hour revenue as Pokémon and other collectible pack openings continue going viral onchain. The surge puts digital pack openings ahead of major trading platforms on the daily revenue leaderboard, a striking sign of where crypto users are spending.
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5 pumpfun wallets spent $1M+ ripping packs all 5 are in loss not everyone got a rolex
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🚨 BREAKING: Michele Tafoya just received the endorsement of the Minnesota Fraternal Order of Police. With Somali gang violence on the rise, Tafoya is the clear pick for law enforcement, and a safer Minnesota.
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BTCVIX retweeted
in june a whale borrowed $30m against his $ETH and bought 18,212 more at $1,647 he sat on it for four and a half months..... yesterday he sold 12,468 of them at $2,368 and booked $8.99m then he wired $20m to hyperliquid and went long oil 😂 $14.4m of wti and $8.1m of brent at 3x he kept adding overnight and its over $27m now the guy who caught the bottom at $1,647 would rather own oil than $ETH at $2,395 $ETH chops under $2,500 until he comes back
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