@Geiger_Capital

Markets, Economics, Politics Personal Views. Not Investment Advice.

GeigerCap.com
Joined December 2011
  • Tweets17.3K
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6.3KMedia
Made this post free for everyone… Seeing lots of similarities between Q4 2018 and Q4 2026, and I don’t like it. What history says in Q4 of a midterm year: geigercap.com/p/prepare-your…

Prepare Yourself for Q4

What history says to expect for markets, stocks and crypto in Q4 of a midterm year.

geigercap.com
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Just posted my 3rd midterm trade… Big value emerging as we get closer, imo.
Geiger Capital
@Geiger_CapitalOct 6
Going to share some of the political bets I’m making for the midterms… Made a "squad" on the Polymarket app which is their version of a group chat. Will post some positions and share my thoughts over the next couple of weeks. Free to join: polymarket.us/squad/join/d2r…

Join Geiger’s Midterms on Polymarket

Accept your invite and start trading with your squad.

polymarket.us
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Geiger Capital retweeted
Elon Musk
@elonmusk8h
Replying to @alx
Message received
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"These were French students protesting because they aren’t getting enough…" France is the socialist model these people want. 60% of GDP is government spending. They see the results, yet refuse to stop.
Scott Jennings
@ScottJenningsKY9h
“The Hands”
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Will have my full midterm prediction article up on substack next week. 🤝
Geiger Capital
@Geiger_Capital13h
Two weeks out, there’s only 2 options… Either this is the biggest midterm landslide of the 21st century, or the final nail in the coffin for the mainstream polling industry.
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Geiger Capital retweeted
Geiger Capital
@Geiger_CapitalOct 13
Made this post free for everyone… Seeing lots of similarities between Q4 2018 and Q4 2026, and I don’t like it. What history says in Q4 of a midterm year: geigercap.com/p/prepare-your…

Prepare Yourself for Q4

What history says to expect for markets, stocks and crypto in Q4 of a midterm year.

geigercap.com
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Two weeks out, there’s only 2 options… Either this is the biggest midterm landslide of the 21st century, or the final nail in the coffin for the mainstream polling industry.
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Japan validates every right-wing argument in the West. You realize it’s all a choice… Weak policies and demographics.
Upstate Federalist@upstatefederlstOct 20
"Visiting Japan is radicalizing." "What do you mean?" "You'll see." ....... "Oh." I'm back now and yeah I see.
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They made up a polling firm, made up polls, and got included in major aggregators… Their polls were featured on MSNOW.
Geiger Capital
@Geiger_CapitalOct 21
Absolutely incredible… "Wedgewood Polls" just admitted they are a fake polling firm and made up their polls. Their fake polls have been posted in both the NYT and Nate Silver’s averages.
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Absolutely incredible… "Wedgewood Polls" just admitted they are a fake polling firm and made up their polls. Their fake polls have been posted in both the NYT and Nate Silver’s averages.
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I’ll believe it when cars can fly…
Geiger Capital
@Geiger_CapitalOct 20
Holy. Shit. "What this implies for SpaceX annual recurring revenue by the end of 2027 is somewhere between $500 Billion and $1 Trillion." That is $42B - $84B. In one month. As soon as next December.
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Holy. Shit. "What this implies for SpaceX annual recurring revenue by the end of 2027 is somewhere between $500 Billion and $1 Trillion." That is $42B - $84B. In one month. As soon as next December.
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This is insane… Anthropic has $600B+ in future compute contracts, and they’re still saying they need more compute capacity than the market can provide.
Liquid
@liquidtradingOct 20
JUST IN: Anthropic draft S1 details contracts including $111 billion with Google ($GOOGL), $110 billion with Amazon ($AMZN), $31 billion with Microsoft ($MSFT), and up to $86 billion with Nscale and Lambda.
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Spot to watch in Texas is Collin county… Collin (vs. TX result): 🔴2016: Trump +17 (R+7.4) 🔴2018: Cruz +6 (R+3.6) 🔴2020: Trump +4 (D +1.2) 🔴2022: Abott +10 (D +0.9) 🔴2024: Trump +11 (D +2.6) It’s been trending bluer, but if Democrats want to actually have the night in Texas they’ve been dreaming of for 30 years, Talarico will need to finally flip Collin, or get a rough tie at worst. Early vote (IPEV + mail) as % of final: 83%, 81%, 93%, 73%, 85%, respectively. For all 5 years, their final election margin was within 1 pt of the early vote margin. Mail is only ~5% of total EV in Collin, so even when massively lopsided toward Democrats (D+21 in 2024), it only moves the EV margin by 1-2 pts. The result… If the IPEV (in-person early vote) in Collin County goes to Paxton by even just a few points, he wins Texas. If it’s tied or goes to Talarico, Democrats are flipping it blue.
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Somalia is Somalia because of the people. Japan is Japan because of the people. There is no magic soil. A nation is simply it’s people.
Elon Musk
@elonmuskOct 20
Replying to @cremieuxrecueil
It’s not “magic ground” in nice neighborhoods that makes them nice, it’s nice people
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Going to post some alpha on the Texas Senate race in my next tweet. Most of the EV analysis I’m seeing is garbage.
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To be fair… 2 weeks before the midterms is exactly when Iran has the most leverage. Once midterms pass, Trump is done talking.
Will
@WClementeOct 20
Surely peace agreement #1,000 is the real one exactly two weeks before mid terms
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