Have I gone a little overboard with the World Series analysis? Probably. 😂 Park-adjusted HRs, ISO rankings, regression models, Monte Carlo simulations... Ridiculous? Maybe. But hey, IT'S THE WORLD SERIES! ⚾ 3 final Basewinner value plays: 🍺 MIL Series ML -165 (DK) ⚾ Over 9.5 Series HR -150 (Caesars) 💣 Victor Mesa Jr. 2+ HR +400 (Heritage) If you appreciate this level of baseball analytics obsession, give me a follow! Much love…BW basewinner.com/posts/2026-wo…

That would be a cool prop - I'm thinking more like 25-1. These props are great @ericbiggio and the pricing is good. My calcs say over 10.5 most combined runs in any game -130 and over 9.5 HRs in series -110

Looks like a cold night in Cleveland. 🥶⚾ Small sample size, but I thought this was interesting. In similar conditions at Progressive Field since 2022, scoring and HR production have been down, while walks have actually increased. #MLB #Guardians #Rays #Basewinner

This was a bizarre strategy move to me??? the CLE team must have better metrics than actual 50% game K rate today?? Maybe I’m blinded by the Williams 10+ K bet at +839 that just slipped away

Thanks man glad you enjoy it! I think MLB will play next season based on some of the movement I've seen in the front offices. If not - NBA and Tennis I model. If no bases, may advance it and make that public.

🛒⚾ Some pretty interesting data from the BWDB on how teams hit in what I call "Costco Parks" (closed-roof/dome stadiums). So interesting, in fact, that I thought it was worth digging into and writing about, especially with the LCS underway. Not exactly great for our LAD and CLE positions, but another interesting piece of the handicapping puzzle! basewinner.com/posts/the-cos… #Dodgers #Guardians #MLBPlayoffs #Basewinner

Yammo be there!!

🌅⚾ Not a fan of the Dodgers day game — nothing like the sunset in October at Chavez Ravine. I still like LAD to win today, but this was interesting enough to keep me off the Dodgers team total. ☀️ Before 6 PM AZ time at home this year: .680 OPS in 562 PA. That would rank around 27th compared with MLB overall home numbers. 😬 Woof. Maybe I’m making too much of it, but that’s why we have the database. 📊 📝 Note: the game counts overlap because some games had PAs on both sides of the 6 PM AZ cutoff. #Dodgers #MLBPlayoffs

would love to see your Top5 walk up music list for this list🎹😀

We rebuilt our October pitching model. bwERA+ → postseason sxIP → bullpen exposure → team RA/G → series probabilities → 100,000 postseason simulations. Then we priced the DraftKings postseason board. A few differences jumped out: CLE over CWS series BW: 64.97% / -185 fair DK: -140 NYY over TB series BW: 58.71% / -142 fair DK: -120 LAD World Series BW: 39.36% / +154 fair DK: +200 We can even price exact LCS outcomes now. The final probabilities look clean. Building everything behind them definitely isn't. Full breakdown 👇 basewinner.com/posts/we-rebu…

Maybe there is a chance and thanks for sharing that

Mentioned this on the show today. With NBC back in the MLB postseason mix, I'm officially requesting the return of the classic NBC Game of the Week theme. Absolute classic. ⚾🔥 Here's a trip back to the 1983 playoffs: youtube.com/watch?v=W0qzJRx8…

Come on Phillies fans - Let's get some "Jesus Saves" signs. A save situation may not happen though? the way Phillies lineup of late, may need actual Jesus to hit.