Multi-asset portfolios, triple-leveraged memes. Running a charity fund for brain research. Not financial advice.
Valhalla
Joined September 2025
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Two frontier models from Google a few weeks apart, at the same price per token. Not long ago people were calling $GOOGL the AI loser.
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Pour some out for the $TE bagholders
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It’s real this time
US AND IRAN NEAR POTENTIAL BREAKTHROUGH IN PEACE TALKS
The US and Iran are moving closer to a potential agreement to end the war, according to Bloomberg.
Tehran is reportedly willing to discuss nuclear issues previously considered off-limits, signaling a possible shift in negotiations.
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THE DEMOCRATIC AI PIVOT
The AI industry took for granted that this administration was pro-AI, explaining why the industry spent so little time making the case to the public what all of the potential benefits to humanity may be.
Negative perceptions around AI also became a key issue for the Democratic midterm platform, in part fueling this blue wave.
What do you think happens when the industry changes its tune about the benefits, and all of the AI lobbyists start spending money on the Democrats in Congress?
David Sacks himself confirmed on All-In last week that Anthropic is raising legions of government affairs staff. There is nobody better positioned to confirm this, so take it as fact.
Congressional Democrats will accept AI lobbying money and future campaign contributions almost across the board, particularly the farther away we get from the midterms, and will be just as, if not more, pro-AI as today’s Republican controlled Congress.
This is not a criticism of Democrats. They are no worse than Republicans.
It is an observation about basic human psychology operating within a system of governance designed to exchange money for power.
It explains why Donald Trump sold out his campaign promises to join Israel in a war in the Middle East. And it explains why Democrats will become advocates of the continued AI buildout.
As far as markets go, if you believe that this is the “end of the AI Trade” because “Democrats”, I will take the other side of that bet.
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Would you look at that
teapaw.org/GavinSBaker/status/211…
The governor-elect of Texas, Gina Hinojosa, has explicitly said that all currently permitted datacenters in Texas will be allowed to finish construction. This essentially covers all of the 2027 and likely well into 2028.
She is going to pass laws that ensure that all *newly* permitted datacenters going forward for delivery in 2028/2029 will pay taxes, commit to no increase in power prices for consumers, don’t impact water availability for people, be constructed with union labor and give “Texans a seat at the table.”
Sounds reasonable. She doesn’t want to lose a lot of good blue collar jobs and property taxes for small towns in rural Texas.
Datacenter commentary starts at 6:30 in this interview.
Also attaching her official campaign position from her website in the next post.
Sidenote: After watching a bunch of her speeches and interviews, I do think she is a political talent and probably has a future in national politics.
youtu.be/D-T6H3b8ZeE?is=mEWu…
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VOTE NOW!
The Based Capital charitable fund needs some fresh capital. Buy the dip!
Today we're selecting a long-term consumer discretionary brand with staying power.
Which of these companies do you think completes a successful turnaround in the years to come?
Help us out with a vote on your favorite new holding in the message below:
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Which consumer discretionary company will succeed over the next 1+ year?
0%Nike
100%Estee Lauder
0%Target
0%Victoria's Secret
2 votes • Final results 2
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Democrats will fold on “No Data Centers”
Even faster than Trump folded on “No Wars”
The natural course of politicians is to not keep promises when reality meets idealism.
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I've seen a lot of TKL hate recently but this take seems patently reasonable.
On today's stock market crash:
As an investor, on days like today, you have to ask yourself one question: What fundamentally changed over the last 24 hours?
The shift in the fundamental backdrop cannot be attributed solely to the Midterm Election results; markets had already largely priced in the outcome.
So, what changed between yesterday and today? What is the fundamental reason for today's decline?
One of the most likely catalysts is growing concern about a potential "ban" on AI, or at the very least, severe regulation of the industry.
Over the last 24 hours, Democratic lawmakers have publicly called for restrictions on advanced AI development, including an outright "ban on artificial superintelligence."
Frankly, an outright ban will not happen.
Such a ban, if even possible to enforce, would effectively mean the US surrendering its position in the global AI race to China.
Does this mean AI is "over" or today's stock market crash marks "the end?" Absolutely not.
Rather, we believe we are witnessing a sudden shift in sentiment colliding with excessive levels of leverage, potentially triggering forced liquidations by several major institutional investors.
Therefore, today's downturn is more technical than fundamental. This is not to discount the concerns around regulation, they are legitimate. But price action right now does not look orderly or rational.
We are in the midst of the biggest technological revolution in human history.
Zoom out and remain calm.
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BIG TIME.
$OSCR MASSIVE Q3 EARNINGS BEAT
EPS: $0.49 vs $(0.20) est ✅
Sales: $5.14B vs $4.72B est ✅
Raised FY2026 Sales Guidance ✅
🟩 +5% in pre-market
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