I nailed the GFC - saw it coming, heavily shorted into it, kept making money running net-flat for months while most were getting destroyed. Then I botched the turn, getting net short early into a monster rally and giving back more than half my fund's outperformance.
1/4
I just made my second-ever predictions market bet: Paxton to win at 35%. I expect to lose, but given what I wrote below, 2:1 odds are great odds.
My first-ever bet was "no" on Biden being the 2024 nominee at 20%, which I also posted real-time then. I won the 5-bagger.
Replying to @BeenThereCap
I am pulling back a bit from this forecast pre-midterms.
Heading into the final week, Democrats continue to lead the polls in most swing states. The key question now is polling error. Most of the poll numbers are within their margin of error.
My new tangible prediction is that Paxton has a decent chance of winning Texas despite the polls. It is only in the last ~10 days that his opposition is strongly publicizing the message and facts showing Talarico is a full-on woke socialist. Quite a few Texans, forced to choose between one of the worst human beings in upper-level politics and a woke socialist, will choose the awful human being.
A Paxton win would significantly tighten the Senate-control odds.
Some Random Guy Who Likes Getting Media Mentions Says Price of [insert any publicly traded asset here] Could Rise/Fall to [choose literally any price]
"Could"
Non-commercial "speculative" traders of #natgas futures are their most net-short in 6 years.
I am net-long.
The bears are correct about supply/demand fundamentals being bearish (warm winter coming). But they are all crowded on one side of the boat, January futures are already down 36% in 8 months, and even brief streaks of merely average cold temperatures will likely spike prices, at least temporarily. I expect to make a lot on the volatility, more than enough to overcome the long bias even if the bears are correct about the full-heating-season outcome.
I am still seeing recent $ASTS bull posts saying that Starlink won't compete with $ASTS in D2D service.
Starlink Mobile is now live in Brazil with @vivobr! 50M customers can use apps and messaging in cellular dead zones — with 7M phones already connected. This is the first nationwide service to cover the entire country.
The next-gen service - Starlink Mobile V2 - will make sure all Brazilians have access to high-speed mobile internet, from small fishing villages deep in the rainforests to remote stretches of highways 🛰️📱
The Brewers just had one of the best innings of hitting in the history of baseball. World Series. 2 outs, a man on first, and 2 strikes on the batter. Then a walk and 7 consecutive hits scoring 8 runs.
The Rays used three different pitchers in the inning, and they were not pitching poorly.
Here are the 7 consecutive hits.
xitter.cf/Brewers/status/2114897…
₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い retweeted
My quick takeaways on the Anthropic S-1:
1. This is a historical moment
2. $6.6M in revenue per employee!! Hard to even comprehend how good that is but Anthropic is AI native as it gets so makes sense.
3. I always thought OpenAI would drop their S-1 first
4. Customers spend about 9x more after a year. Net Revenue Retention is approximately 900% as of Sep 30, 2026. Good SaaS companies brag about 120%.
5. Cowork is growing faster than Claude Code did. Goes to show you the demand for consumer products. Duo will probably rip.
6. 3 years ago this company did $41M in revenue. In the first six months of 2026, it did $16.3 billion. I don't think anyone has a mental model for that curve yet, I sure don’t.
7. Nearly half of revenue comes through cloud marketplaces. About 48% comes from customers buying through them. Big companies buy where their budget already lives, and the lesson for founders selling to enterprises is to get listed where your buyers already spend.
8. Their run rate formula is published: the last 28 days of usage times 13, plus subscriptions times 12, which i guess is the new ARR math for founders?
9. It looks like They're merging Cowork into Claude dot au which tells you the chat box era is ending and the "go do the work for me" era is here.
10. Thousands of Anthropic employees are about to become liquid at once, so expect the biggest wave of new AI startups and angel checks San Francisco has ever seen. Reminds me when Facebook went public but this is way bigger.
Let’s go!
11. Buried in the filing, Anthropic says the gap between what Claude can do and how widely it's used is one of its biggest growth opportunities, so the company itself is telling you the models are ahead of the market and someone has to close that gap for dentists, landlords, and plumbers.
12. Whatever happens, exciting times to be building in AI.
Anthropic has filed an S-1 registration statement with the SEC related to its proposed IPO.
Read more: anthropic.com/news/s1-sec
Legal disclaimer: A registration statement relating to these securities has been filed with the SEC but has not yet become effective. These securities may not be sold, nor may offers to buy be accepted, prior to the time the registration statement becomes effective. This post does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy these securities, nor shall there be any sale of these securities in any state or jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such state or jurisdiction.
NFL tidbit - Each NFC division's current combined records, excluding intra-division games:
NFC North: 16-4
NFC West: 9-8
NFC East: 5-12
NFC South: 4-14
₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い retweeted
Glenn Greenwald adds reporting to his earlier commentary.
Apart from a few places like Russia, where the opposition routinely "falls" out of high windows, Brazil is now is as close as the real-life modern world gets to Game of Thrones.
@compound248
Trump has crippled the rule of law in the U.S. by routinely violating statutes, exceeding his authority, and playing "catch me if you can" with the courts -- while leaving our courts' impartiality and integrity intact. (Or rather, as intact as they were previously. It has never been anywhere near perfect.)
Lula has taken a more direct and lasting approach to crippling Brazil's rule of law: he has destroyed its courts' impartiality and integrity. Prominent left-wing journalist Glen Greenwald, a long-time Brazil resident, details Lula's doings in his article posted today. Here is the key section.
Glenn Greenwald adds reporting to his earlier commentary.
Apart from a few places like Russia, where the opposition routinely "falls" out of high windows, Brazil is now is as close as the real-life modern world gets to Game of Thrones.
@compound248
Serious question: Why do a bunch of my FinTwit guys devote time and virtual X-ink to ragging on Ed Zitron over and over? Why not just ignore him?
In 2005-06 when I was shorting everything I could find that was highly levered to home sales or remodeling volumes, this current Whirlpool $WHR chart was my dream outcome. Most stocks like $WHR didn't fall this much until the GFC finally hit in 2008. I guess there's less investor hope this time.
I can also guess that, after living through 14 years of super-low interest rates, many of these companies are much less well positioned to survive rates that are merely back to early-2008 levels.
Well, yeah, because most of the citizenry knows that pickleball is the special-needs relative of any good racquet sport. If your special need is that you're old, you're still going to pull that hammy and tear up that knee with pickleball. Play a real racquet sport and learn how to stretch and use ibuprofin and Ben Gay like the immortal wizards do.
Hoo boy does it suck to be an $LEU shareholder.
I genuinely feel sorry for them. They're not loud and obnoxious, like, well, you know who.
Lawyers are trained to be creative & thorough in imagining scenarios of what might go wrong. It starts in Week 2 of law school, when they learn the ridiculous chain of events that led to an injury in the old Palzgraf case.
SEC filings' "risk factors" sections are the imaginitive lawyers' chances to really shine.
The Anthropic filing was a few lawyers' chance of a lifetime.
I own the best data center company as one of my largest positions. The end.
$WULF















