Connecting Cambridgshire Bitcoiners, monthly meetups, supporting Bitcoin friendly businesses, #Bitcoin #RogueMoney ⚡️ Est block 825924
Cambridge
Joined January 2024
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Cambs₿itcoin retweeted
Understanding Bitcoin mining was one of the first things that made me really grasp what an insane and brilliant system Bitcoin truly was...
If you still think it's just some gamified ponzi scheme, I urge you to take a few minutes and watch this 👇
Inspired by @freddienew tirades against "unexpected" ecnomic news and @satmojoe's @satsvsfiat allegory, I've written a picture book about "Mr Unexpected".
Cambs₿itcoin retweeted
A bitcoiner is forged by coming up with 100 different ways that Bitcoin could fail and then meticulously debunking them, one-by-one, from first principles.
Cambs₿itcoin retweeted
Introducing: “What’s The Problem?”
Let’s help *everyone* get to the starting line.
Accessible to all, the story of Fiatello and the Big Red Button is something we can all send *before* the first Bitcoin book / podcast / video.
Please share it with everyone you care about (link below).
Thank you Bitcoin 🧡
@satmojoe
Cambs₿itcoin retweeted
2024 was year one of institutional Bitcoin.
The year that Bitcoin truly established itself as a must-own asset.
But 2025 will take things to a new level.
The ETFs are the superhighway that allow trillions of dollars of capital to flow into Bitcoin.
But the greatest ETF launch of all time is just the starter.
Wall Street has taken note of the energy and excitement around BTC.
And they see the massive opportunity to create a whole new suite of Bitcoin products.
Microstrategy has proven how much demand there is for structured products that offer varying degrees of Bitcoin exposure.
And the growing base of hodlers is a huge untapped market for lending products done right.
Once the rules change, banks will enter the Bitcoin lending game.
These products will make holding Bitcoin even more attractive, and will make selling unnecessary.
The largest institutions in the world are all on board.
It's a massive growth opportunity for them.
And now that they have a supportive administration - we should expect things to accelerate in 2025.
A Strategic Bitcoin Reserve could arrive by late January.
If it includes a purchase program, then you better rethink everything you think you know about Bitcoin "cycles"
There will still be volatility both ways.
But Bitcoin being aggressively bid by the United States is a completely different asset than Bitcoin being bid by Joe Blow who heard about it from his barber.
And it will need to be repriced accordingly.
We're at $100K and it's still the very beginning of this journey.
Less than 1 year after ETF launch.
You need to be bullish.
You need to be optimistic.
You understood this before the big guys arrived.
Now it's time to reap the rewards.
Cambs₿itcoin retweeted
When we sent this letter and briefing paper to @RachelReevesMP and @TulipSiddiq in July, suggesting it would be prudent to develop a national Bitcoin strategy for the UK, the country's holdings were at about £3 billion.
Today they're at £5 billion. Without any supportive UK policies.
These holdings are rapidly filling up that £22 billion black hole.
Imagine how much more quickly this might happen if the UK finally started taking Bitcoin seriously?
Come on @CryptoUKAssoc and @TheFCA - let's align on the need for a study at least.
It's as negligent for a nation not to have a #Bitcoin strategy today as it would have been to ignore the internet in 1994.
The UK is the third largest nation state holder of Bitcoin, with over 61,000 coins. Nearly five million UK citizens are thought to hold Bitcoin.
And the government holds its Bitcoin on behalf of the nation – you might have thought we'd use this head start to our advantage, to protect and preserve the value of this important reserve (which has increased in value by more than a billion pounds just in the past year).
But the policies of the previous government, and @TheFCA – far from making this country a ‘crypto hub’ - have instead placed constraints on UK citizens looking to buy #Bitcoin, and have driven jobs, businesses and tax revenue offshore. We give examples in the thread.
Today, we have written open letters to the Chancellor, @RachelReevesMP , and to the City Minister, @TulipSiddiq , recommending three simple policy changes, to help HMG change course, and really capitalise on the country’s first mover advantage:
1. Ensure that Bitcoin businesses and holders can freely operate in the UK, with access to exchanges and to banking, and to adapt our tax policies to encourage spending and saving of Bitcoin in the economy.
2. Conduct feasibility studies relating to the opportunities Bitcoin mining offers in achieving the UK’s net zero goals.
3. Capitalise on the UK’s current position as the third largest nation state holder of Bitcoin and consider an allocation of our existing Bitcoin as a Treasury reserve asset, alongside our gold.
Gordon Brown famously sold a significant portion of the nation’s gold at a generational low in the market; at what is now a loss exceeding 20 billion pounds.
We should not make such a mistake again.
We encourage you to read our open letters, to download the policy manifesto in the thread, and to share it with your local MP. Please also share and repost this thread!
With thanks also to @Dennis_Porter_ , to @Excellion and to @JAN3com , whose work with legislators and on nation state adoption has inspired and informed our work, and also to @thetrocro and @JoeNakamoto , for their ever-welcome advice and support.
Cambs₿itcoin retweeted
Leverage in the hands of an experienced, talented person is great. If you give Bernard Arnault £10Billion to go buy and build luxury brands he will quadruple the money - because he knows exactly what he's doing.
If you give a lunatic £300Billion to run around creating say "a green energy revolution" it's highly unlikely that person will have the ability to deploy the capital, get a result and a return on investment. It's much more likely they will waste almost all of the money.
In the hands of surgeon, a scalpel is useful - but dangerous for anyone else.. In the hands of an amazing singer a loud microphone is useful - but terrible for anyone else. In the hands of a skilled investor capital is useful - but likely to cause destruction if you give it to a politician who's out of their depth.
Cambs₿itcoin retweeted
Isn't it weird how France has the highest taxes and the biggest budget deficit and Singapore and Dubai have the lowest taxes and a budget surplus....
... It's almost as if high taxes kill the economy and low taxes generate opportunity! Worth considering.
Cambs₿itcoin retweeted
There are a lot of very stupid things being said on the family farming tax, by people who are proving themselves to be entirely ignorant of British agriculture.
The farm may be worth millions, but it's worth NOTHING until it's sold. So when the farm is passed down, and this huge tax bill arrives - what is the family supposed to do? They don't have hundreds of thousands of pounds sitting in the bank...
Farming is not a lucrative career. It does not make much money. The land is valuable, but the returns are not.
Running a farm is bloody expensive - profits are minuscule in comparison to the value of the actual farm.
This is really not a complicated principle, yet I see idiots parroting utter nonsense.
Labour's farming tax will force thousands of farming families to sell the farm to pay the inheritance tax bill. Farms that have been in those families for generations - if it were not for this tax, they would never dream of selling.
It's really that simple, and it will change British farming forever.
This is a tax drawn up by people who have NO understanding of agriculture. There are three farming MPs in Parliament, I am one of them...
Trust me when I say this - Labour does NOT understanding farming. It would be laughable if they were not running the damn country.
I wouldn't be surprised if a majority of Labour MPs believe that potatoes grow on trees. These are urban people who think that a farm is a family day out, an opportunity to feed the sheep and ride the tractor.
Clueless. On farming, and so much else.
I will be standing alongside thousands of other British farmers tomorrow. We must make our voices heard.
Reeves must reverse her cruel assault on British family farms. Either she does it now, or we'll do it in 2029.
Cambs₿itcoin retweeted
Full response:
Helena @helenavieira1, as managing editor of the LSE Blog, I request a full retraction of the article "The large environmental consequences of bitcoin mining"
Reason: the conclusions are no longer supported by the scientific consensus or contemporary dataset.
Moreover the studies done (de Vries et al) have been quadruply debunked in academic literature. For this reason there are very few new articles on Bitcoin mining that claim negative environmental impacts, either in the media or in the scientific literature - and when they are it is all because the authors
1. used historic 2021 datasets that no longer accurately reflect the current and predominantly sustainable-energy based Bitcoin network
2. cited the debunked work of de Vries / digiconomist
3. were unaware that 10 of the last 11 peer reviewed articles cite positive environmental consequences from Bitcoin mining.
Source: teapaw.org/DSBatten/status/184989…
Specifically, the blog post has the following issues 1. The "per transaction" method of evaluating bitcoin energy, upon which many of the conclusions in the blogpost rest, has been refuted by four subsequent authors in academic literature including Sai & Vranken (2023).
2. The data used is now more than 3 years old. This matters materially because high-fossil fuel using countries such as Kazakhstan now ~1% of global mining (River survey, 2023), not 20% as your article claims. As a result of migrating to more sustainable-energy based countries, Bitcoin is now 56.7% based on sustainable energy, which is more than any other global industry Source: Digital Assets Research Institute woocharts.com/esg-bitcoin-mi…
The contemporary data does not support your claim "fossil fuels remain a primary source of electricity in many mining regions" - which should be withdrawn.
3. The statement "If left unchecked, the energy requirements of these innovations could pose further challenges to global climate mitigation efforts" is non-evidence-based conjecture that is in fact unsupported by data which shows (see chart below) that as Bitcoin price and hashrate has grown, emissions has not. Source: woocharts.com/esg-bitcoin-mi…
4. The suggestion that Bitcoin should consider "an alternative consensus mechanisms like proof of stake" is not a suggestion that anyone who has taken the time to understand blockchain consensus mechanisms would make. For one thing, it would break Bitcoin mining's evidence-based ability to mitigate methane, use stranded renewable energy, and balance grid, but more fundamentally it would break Bitcoin as money. These reasons are well understood to anyone with a domain knowledge of Bitcoin mining, and can be found here, alongside other key information for people writing about Bitcoin for the first time docs.google.com/document/d/1…
5. The most concerning issue with the article however is that either through unawareness or through intentional omission (I will assume it is the former), there is no mention of the large body of peer reviewed research that suggests positive environmental externalities from bitcoin mining. These have been documented by the Digital Assets Research Institute (da-ri.org).
Any objective analysis of bitcoin mining impact should consider both positive and negative externalities. The fact that this significant body of research is not mentioned renders the article by definition non-objective. The authors are not entirely to blame for this blogpost. There has been a lot of misinformation on bitcoin for some time. While much of this has now been corrected in academic work, not everyone is yet aware of this. That said, as an academic institute yourself, it is part of your responsibility to be domain-aware of the body of work in the areas you write. For these reasons, I request this article be retracted. If you are sincerely interested, my conference keynote (see link below) addresses point by point how we came to live in a world with so much misinformation about Bitcoin, and how to filter the noise from the signal. youtube.com/watch?v=7AN4JSfK…
The scientific consensus, 10 or the last 11 Peer reviewed academic publications on Bitcoin & Energy show Bitcoin has strong environmental benefits. Here they are.
1. How Bitcoin Can Support Renewable Energy Development and Climate Action
(Cornell University)
source: pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs…
Key Findings:
Bitcoin mining helps renewable developers generate more profits that is typically re-invested, accelerating the renewable transition
2. Bitcoin’s Carbon Footprint Revisited: Proof of Work Mining for Renewable Energy Expansion
source: mdpi.com/2078-1547/14/3/35
Key Findings:
[our research finding support] "a possible role for Bitcoin mining in promoting grid decarbonization" through effective demand response
3. Promoting rigor in blockchain energy and environmental footprint research: A systematic literature review
source: sciencedirect.com/science/ar…
Key Findings:
Reveals fundamental flaws in the work of Alex de Vries/Digiconomist (heavily quoted by mainstream media)
4. Bitcoin and Its Energy, Environmental, and Social Impacts
source: lnkd.in/gKjMcMJe
Key Findings:
"There is "transformative potential in the Bitcoin mining sector, especially regarding demand response, grid flexibility, and methane mitigation"
5. Drivers of Bitcoin Energy Use and Emissions
Hass McCook (Oxford, Conference Paper)
source: mdpi.com/2078-1547/14/4/47
Key Findings:
With greater machine efficiency & more sustainable energy sources, Bitcoin mining's emissions has likely already peaked and is now trending downwards
6. Pairing crypto mining with green hydrogen offers clean energy boost
source: sciencedaily.com/releases/20…
Key Finding:
Bitcoin mining with green hydrogen makes wind farms 73% more profitable
7. Can bitcoin mining increase renewable capacity?
source: sciencedirect.com/science/ar…
Key Findings:
Bitcoin mining
* can increase renewable energy penetration
* increases emissions, but combined with demand response adds net zero additional emissions
* obviates need for gas peaker plants
"When Bitcoin miners provide ... demand response, their emissions impact is largely mitigated."
8. Cryptocurrency mining as a novel virtual energy storage system in islanded and grid-connected microgrids
source: sciencedirect.com/science/ar…
Key Findings:
Microgrids (MGs) which are not using Bitcoin Mining waste significant amounts of renewable energy. However using Bitcoin mining
* stops almost all renewable energy waste
* reduces MG costs by 46%
* accelerates MG development
* decarbonizes power production
9. High resolution modeling and analysis of cryptocurrency mining’s impact on power grids: Carbon footprint, reliability, and electricity price
source: sciencedirect.com/science/ar…
Key findings:
1. Mining loads participation in demand response mitigates market disruptions.
2. Mining loads’ flexibility increases grid reliability and stability
10. An integrated landfill gas-to-energy and Bitcoin mining framework
source: sciencedirect.com/science/ar…
Key Findings:
Bitcoin mining can profitably reduce landfill methane, where other technologies cannot
In summary: 10 out of the last 11 papers on Bitcoin mining show clear environmental benefits.
If you want to keep maintaining that Bitcoin is bad for the environment despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary, you should know that the scientific consensus does not support your position.
Cambs₿itcoin retweeted
You are welcome to your opinion
Equally, when you say "Bitcoin is useless", you are saying that each and every one of the recorded usecases of Bitcoin is useless
In other words, you are saying:
1. Helping bring energy abundance to these 1800 African villagers have no value unherd.com/2024/01/the-afric…
2. Getting aid to 1000s of war refugees is useless wired.co.uk/article/ukraine-…
3 Developing energy independence for Bhutan is useless impact.economist.com/project…
4. Protecting National Parks in Africa is useless technologyreview.com/2023/01…
5. Helping 19.4 million Afghanastani women avoid State-level financial discrimination is useless
bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/…
6. Establishing the economic sovereignty of 14 African nations still experiencing French financial colonization is useless foreignpolicy.com/2021/08/03…
7. The idea of creating an alternative to a monetary system which can and does elongate wars, increase wealth gaps, bail out bankers but fail to protect employees and small businesses is useless amazon.com/Engine-Inequality…
8. The potential to provide banking to up to 2 Billion unbanked is useless impact.economist.com/project…… cnbc.com/2023/03/26/bitcoin-…
9. Providing a financial system that is harder to use for money laundering than fiat currency is useless decrypt.co/125623/crooks-def…
10. Removing the risk of financial reprisal for running humanitarian campaigns in autocratic nations where 5.7Billion people live is useless bbc.com/news/world-africa-56…
11. Providing 250 Million people in countries experiencing hyperinflation a means to stop 50%+ erosion of their family savings per year is useless cointribune.com/en/argentina…
12. Allowing people in developing nations to receive remittance payments from family without delays and without heavy fees is useless thenextweb.com/news/el-salva…
13. Having a secure, permissionless, decentralized, 24/7 store of value with fixed monetary supply is useless bitcoin.com/get-started/the-…
14. The accomplishment of becoming the world's most sustainably powered industry is useless teapaw.org/DSBatten/status/167032…
15. Accelerating the renewable transition by making renewable generation more profitable is useless news.cornell.edu/stories/202…
16. Reducing more emissions from landfills than the largest DAC project in the world ever achieved is useless renewableenergymagazine.com/…
17. Developing an monetary financial system with significantly lower emissions and emissions intensity than the banking system is useless nasdaq.com/articles/a-compar…… teapaw.org/DSBatten/status/167133…
Arguing that even one of these things is useless, or that Bitcoin does not deliver this promised value would I think be difficult. Though, have a go if you wish.
But arguing that all 17 have are useless (which you'd need to do in order to contend that Bitcoin is useless)? That would require mental gymnastics beyond the level to justify flat-earth theory.
It's rare I see a technology with one benefits akin to the ones above. But to have 17 usecases of such world-changing dimension - that is a once in a generation technology.
B𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗞𝗜𝗡𝗚: #Bitcoin mining has the lowest emission intensity of any sector of the economy
Emission intensity (per KWh)
- Iron & Steel: 856g
- Gold: 679g
- Agriculture: 646g
- Industrial: 502g
- Banking: 464g
- Bitcoin: 296g
batcoinz.com/comparing-bitco…
Cambs₿itcoin retweeted
How high can Bitcoin go?
Most people can't handle the answer to this question.
Right now it's the 8th most valuable asset in the world.
It's market cap is comparable to Google, Amazon, and Saudi Aramco.
But Bitcoin has vastly higher upside than those companies.
Investors are slowly realizing that Bitcoin is on a path to matching, and then surpassing gold's market cap.
That's a 14x from here.
~$875K per coin.
But even that is just the beginning.
How many people do you know that use Gold as a primary store of value?
Most value is stored in equity indexes, bonds, and real estate.
There's roughly:
- $115 Trillion in equities
- $380 Trillion in real estate
- $140 Trillion in fixed income
= $635 Trillion in "wealth" stored in assets that are all inferior to Bitcoin in some crucial way.
Equities can be endlessly diluted, rely on business execution, have competitive risk, regulatory risk, trust-busting risk, jurisdictional risk, key man risk, etc.
Real estate has maintenance costs, property taxes, physical risk of deterioration or complete loss, insurance costs, etc.
Debt instruments have default risk, currency risk, and no fixed supply.
Bitcoin is comparatively simple:
- Fixed supply
- Known issuance schedule
- Neutral. Not tied to any single country's future
- Can be held indefinitely at zero cost
So instead of comparing Bitcoin to individual equities or gold...
We should be asking what percentage of the $635 Trillion of wealth it can eat.
A modest 10%?
That's $3,256,410 per coin in today's money.
But then the question is - what will the remaining bond, equity, and real estate holders do when Bitcoin is sitting at $63 Trillion market cap and has had 3,200% gains since hitting $100K?
Keep in mind there's no theoretical upper limit for Bitcoin valuation.
Unlike a business that's anchored by its revenue, Bitcoin doesn't become "overpriced" in the same way.
It's meant to suck in all the monetary premium in the world because it's simply the best store of value that humanity has ever seen.
And so we return to the earliest price prediction ever made: $10 million per coin.
Shortly after receiving the first ever Bitcoin transaction, polymath Hal Finney speculated that Bitcoin would one day reach $10 million per coin.
And as we near the $100K per coin psychological barrier, that prediction appears more prescient by the day.
You are not late to Bitcoin.
This journey is just beginning.
And you have the rest of your life to enjoy the gains.
Cambs₿itcoin retweeted
The order of capitulation.
1. Finance people are the first to admit they were wrong about bitcoin. Larry Fink, for example. In finance you have to pivot or be destroyed, no matter how much you've staked your reputation on your calls.
2. Financial journalists will get it next. If an asset outperforms long enough they will drop the snark, because people do read them in part to help make financial decisions. Their own credibility suffers if they reject the market too long. Also, when enough smart people in finance change their minds, the journalists follow.
3. Mainstream journalism will follow much later. Because their main job is not to make readers money, but to tell them what they want to hear. Mainstream journalists construct a system of rightthink that determines social status. It's worth losing money to retain status, and readers gain some satisfaction being told that they are fundamentally good people, whereas those who made money are bad people. (Compare: investing in arms manufacturing during the Iraq war.) Still, journalists will eventually come around on bitcoin, because their reporting brings them close to the ground, and they'll realize there's a story here: "Bitcoin maybe isn't actually pure evil!"
4. Academics will be the last to get it. There's no incentive for any academic to be right about bitcoin. Once the journalists have reduced the reputational risks, we will see some cautious shifts in attitudes. But academics will have fun staying poor (but righteous) for a very long time.
tl;dr SKIN IN THE GAME
Cambs₿itcoin retweeted
You visualized this bull run.
You knew it was just a matter of time.
Sure we may need a sentiment reset before we cleanly break $100K, but it too will fall.
Then Bitcoin will begin its climb towards gold parity.
$1 million per coin will be normalized over the coming years.
And the hodlers will be rewarded for their patience and foresight as always.
Never lose sight of why you're hodling though.
Build a family.
Connect with nature.
Find work you're meant to do.
Don't get carried away with superfluous net worth projections or shiny objects.
"If I just get to $20 million and get that dream house then I'll..."
Nonsense.
Money is a very helpful tool, but no amount of wealth is sufficient for building the life of your dreams.
The best part about building a fortune is that it shows you what true wealth actually is.
It's not the fat bank account.
It's the mountain hike on a crisp fall day with your giggling son strapped to your chest.
Keep that in mind as everyone starts losing their mind during the coming volatility 🫡
