Carol Strone (@CarolStrone) header
Carol Strone (@CarolStrone) profile picture

Helping philanthropists & collectors to distinguish between what’s worthwhile & what’s not. Life’s all about editing.

Nashville, TN
Joined August 2021
To quote the wise investor-thinker Tony Deden: “Here lies the moral inversion of our age. Money, which was once the servant of purpose, has become its measure. The larger yacht, the faster airplane, the greater “net worth”—these are not symbols of abundance but of dislocation. They mark the distance between possession and peace. The pursuit of more has displaced the question of what it is for. And when a civilization forgets to ask that question, it continues to advance in technique while it declines in wisdom.”
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I always enjoy reading Praetorian Capital’s newsletter. Addresses tough realities: “How do you invest in a world where the vast majority of the US population is struggling financially, where the vast majority of ‘real economy’ businesses are struggling, and where the political mandate is no longer to try and grow the economy?? For most of the past century, politicians were elected if they could bring prosperity to voters. Now, in a Uniparty political system, all that matters is propping up the numerous asset bubbles. Politicians theoretically could grow the economy, but that is a political decision that they’re loathe to make.”
Praetorian's Q4 2025 Investor Letter is here: go.pracap.com/hubfs/Quarterl… Follow us @praetoriancap for more updates.
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February 2026 Cassandra Unchained Charity of the Month is the Fistula Foundation. Fistula Foundation has provided tens of thousands of needed surgeries to women across poor, rural areas of Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia who suffer severe incontinence and discomfort as a result of significant pelvic floor injuries during childbirth. Fistula Foundation is on a mission not only to treat these injuries but to end them altogether, to completely solve the problem. I have followed this charity for a long time and can personally vouch for this Foundation, which is rated 100% by Charity Navigator, A grade by Charity Watch. 5% of CU's revenues will during February will be donated to Fistula Foundation, and I hope they raise even more to help these women. substack.com/home/post/p-186… youtu.be/R8Rt3rT1W8A?si=MxGs…
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Happy to learn about this small but mighty charity and to see the FinTwit/FinX community sharing it with others.
Little Wishes is a highly rated 501(c)(3) non-profit public charity that grants the immediate and ongoing wishes of chronically and critically ill hospitalized children. Founded by two pediatric oncology nurses in 2003, Little Wishes has granted 36,000 wishes in 46 hospitals across 26 states. Little Wishes is Cassandra Unchained’s January 2026 Charity of the Month and will receive 5% of CU’s revenue during the month. I personally vetted and can vouch for this charity. Donations have a direct and massive impact. open.substack.com/pub/michae…
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FEEDING AMERICA STARTS AT HOME Behind every meal is an American farmer — working before sunrise, through storms, & across generations. Supporting local agriculture isn’t just economics, it’s food security, independence, & respect for the people who keep this nation fed. Strong Farms mean a strong America. Stand with those who grow our Food.
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Seems like a good moment to reshare that it is always the stories we attach to objective data that matter.
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A Sunday morning thought. There may be no more powerful chains to hold us back than the stories we tell ourselves when our confidence is low. What we miss is that they are reflective, not predictive. They always fall away as our confidence rises.
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New York’s Dirty Secret: How Sanctuary Laws Are Letting Violent Gang Members Run Free :Exclusive By @LeeroyPress New York City has become a dangerous game of hide-and-seek — and the criminals are winning. During my time documenting and investigating gang activity across the city, I’ve personally tracked groups of violent migrants right back to the very shelters that were supposed to offer them refuge. These aren't just random thieves — many of them are known gang members, with some even allegedly connected to internationally designated terrorist organizations. According to retired federal agents, retired NYPD officers, and sources within the NYPD, the city's sanctuary city laws have created dangerous gaps in law enforcement’s ability to protect New Yorkers. Each NYPD precinct maintains its own gang database, identifying hundreds of individuals known to be active in gang-related activity. However, due to sanctuary city laws, precincts cannot hand this information over to federal agencies like ICE or HSI, even if those individuals have open deportation orders or criminal detainers. Sure, some high-ranking NYPD bosses will publicly say that they’re working “hand-in-hand” with federal agents to go after gang members, but several retired officers I spoke to paint a very different picture. They describe the cooperation as extremely limited. One retired NYPD officer said, “Realistically, when you see on TV that the federal government ‘teamed up’ with the NYPD, the reality is that the feds did all the heavy lifting. NYPD officers are usually just there to provide some backup.” And the risks for street cops are real. Several NYPD officers told me they wish they could help more, and they know who the bad actors are. But if they get caught tipping off or collaborating with ICE or other federal agents, they could lose their jobs. One officer said city officials are cracking down hard on anyone suspected of even having conversations with federal agencies — the political pressure is immense. We saw this exact failure play out in real life just two weeks ago, when a federal border patrol officer was shot in the face during an encounter with a known gang member. That individual had prior arrests for robbery and kidnapping, was subject to deportation orders, and had multiple ICE detainers placed on him. He should have never been on the streets. But thanks to sanctuary city policies, local authorities were barred from notifying ICE. This shooting was completely preventable — and it happened because the system protected the criminal instead of the community. Then there’s the shelter cover-up. Recently, federal authorities issued a subpoena for records tied to criminal activity in multiple migrant shelters. Not long after that subpoena was made public, those same shelters mysteriously shut down. We still don’t know if the city ever handed over the records. Officials have stonewalled every attempt I’ve made to get an answer. But the timing of the closures was more than suspicious. Retired law enforcement sources tell me these shelters are a goldmine for criminals. With little oversight and no access granted to federal investigators, they've essentially become safe havens. And now, as the crime spills into surrounding neighborhoods, everyday New Yorkers are paying the price. Even Republican Secretary of State Kristi Noem publicly called out Mayor Adams last week — and now you can see exactly why. The federal government is frustrated. New Yorkers are scared. And meanwhile, the city is harboring some of the most dangerous individuals in plain sight. This isn't speculation. This is the reality on the ground — a reality city leaders don’t want you to see. For licensing email [email protected]
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Carol Strone retweeted
Reposting again because below is the most fundamental statement about our system. I feel that the most important thing next week will be how long bonds trade. If we fade the news and long bonds remain firm, great. If not, we need to seriously consider what that means for the broader system. Some may have noticed that, across Fintwit, those with fixed income backgrounds tend to be more bearish, while equity folks, especially those deep in the secular growth AI/tech world, seem more sanguine about the current situation. It is not that one side is right or wrong; they are simply looking at different parts of the forest. Here is the thing: under the current fiscal dominance regime, high rates and deficits = strong economic growth = good for equities. And at 4.5% on the 10Y, this regime is strained but not yet threatened. But we should be watching over the next few weeks is whether the regime begins to shift: too-high rates = collateral scarcity = forced deleveraging across risk assets (including stocks, crypto, and even gold). In that scenario, there is no place to hide… until the Fed steps in. (Ironically, that’s exactly what this administration may be hoping for.) As I said, things still hold at 4.5% 10Y. But can anyone confidently tell me we wont see 5.0%? The bond/repo market is now center stage.
The system needs the collateral - of course they will save the bonds
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Everyone wants you to take more risk. If you have cash they say you must have listed equity. If you have listed equity they say you must have private equity. What next? Compulsory crypto? bloomberg.com/news/newslette…
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As we navigate shifting federal policies, the need for food assistance in New York City is the highest on record. Last night, City Harvest brought hundreds of philanthropic New Yorkers together to raise enough to provide 8.5+ million meals for New Yorkers in need. In 2025, City Harvest will rescue more than 83 million pounds of perfectly good, nutritious food from grocers, wholesalers, & more that would otherwise go to waste & deliver it for free to their partner food pantries & soup kitchens to provide free food for the growing number of New Yorkers in need. Neighbors helping neighbors. #WeAreCityHarvest
Last night, our Gala raised enough to help provide more than 8.5 million meals for New Yorkers in need.
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BTFD has become too ingrained with retail investors. Hence they have kept buying into this downturn, especially in tech (huge unwind coming). As more rallies fail, retail will be eventually be beaten into submission. Hope is the killer in a secular bear market. @dailychartbook
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Carol Strone retweeted
Trump after his Trade War crashed the equity markets, bond markets, and the US dollar, and was slated to cause severe inflation: Trump: This could have been a huge mistake... America: Well, it doesn't sound like you completely thought this through. Trump: What should I do? America: Maybe you can just get rid of all the tariffs. Trump: Get rid of all the tariffs? America: Yeah. Pretend like it never happened. Trump: You mean just get rid of all the tariffs like Liberation Day never happened? America: Sure! You're an emotional person. People don't take you seriously... Trump: Just get rid of all the tariffs...Pretend the whole thing never happened... America: Never happened! Trump: I was just blowin' off a little steam...So what? America: So what? You're entitled. Trump: I'm emotional! America: That's right. You're emotional. Trump: Never happened! America: Never happened!
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I just went for a long walk after markets closed to clear my head a little. Probably like most people here, my thoughts were dominated by trying to make sense of everything that transpired in financial markets today.   For at least a few weeks many here have talked about the tariffs and some here and in the media have stated that this administration is playing 3D Chess vs other countries. I think that analogy is both simplistic and dumb.   In my view, what we’re seeing are multiple participants (countries and asset markets) pushing and pulling on each other in a complicated and chaotic downward spiral. Today it was the U.S. vs Asian countries vs Currency markets (primarily the Yen) vs Debt markets (primarily U.S. Treasuries). Tomorrow it could be the same, or there could be new market participants/markets influencing the action (like the Euro), or even commodities (like Crude Oil).   In my view, the pushing and pulling between all these market participants and different asset markets I mentioned may be in search of something John Hussman - @hussmanjp conveniently posted about today: Equilibrium (see below).   How does this all end? I have no idea, neither does anyone else. What I feel confident in saying is that there will be much more pain involved before this ends, because absolutely nothing was solved or fixed today, and probably won’t be tomorrow or the next day, regardless of the tariff drama.
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Do you understand what I'm saying or am I wasting my breath? I'm explaining the most important core economic and investing principal that everyone needs to understand.
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Once you are invested, you are inevitably in the Passenger Seat. You are the beneficiary or victim of not only who is behind the wheel of the car but also how those in the back seat behave when the driver unexpectedly jerks the wheel.
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Another pundit is sure to appear bolder by declaring a 50% chance that a recession will begin sometime this year. But to say there's a 50-50 chance of anything is to sit comfortably in the safety zone, since you cannot be wrong whether there is or is not a recession. The backward-looking data about the past month of two looks artificially rosy thanks to pre-tariff stockpiling by commercial firms, prudent beat-the tariff durable goods consumers, and speculators hoping to buy stuff low and sell high. If any professional forecaster is willing to offer you 60/40 odds on a sizable bet the economy will not go into recession this year, borrow big and take the bet.
I’m raising my odds that a recession will begin sometime this year to 40%, up from 15% at the start of the year. Last week’s economic data were disconcerting, including the slide in consumer confidence, punk consumer spending, and persistently high inflation. The intensifying trade war and DOGE cuts are behind all this and with last week’s announcement of big tariff increases on vehicle imports and the coming reciprocal tariffs, things are sure to get worse. Recession remains less likely than not only because layoffs remain low and job and income growth positive. This Friday’s jobs report for March will give us a sense of whether this continues. It is premature to expect much fallout from the trade war and DOGE cuts in the jobs data, suggesting a monthly payroll job gain of close to 150,000. Anything south of 100k would be worrisome, and anything north of 200k would be welcome. But whatever the job number, as long as the tariffs and DOGE cuts continue to mount, so too will the odds of recession.
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