Written by the brilliant @CarolineElsom, we suggest the true baseline for spending on housing benefits in the private rented sector and the general needs social rented sector is set to exceed £40 billion by 2030/31, around £7.6 billion higher than the 2026 Spring Forecast indicates. By the end of the next parliament in 2033/34, it is on course to have more than doubled since 2023/24 if the likely private rented sector uplift occurs.  This is why action matters.

‼️ A big shout out for Through the Roof, a report published by @ukonward during Conservative Party Conference. With a foreword by @Helen_Whately, we set out how current estimates for future housing welfare spending are implausibly low and build a more realistic baseline. Our report then looks at how this higher projected spending can be brought under greater control quickly and without the need for new primary legislation, saving £4.5 billion a year by the end of the next parliament in 2033/34. ukonward.com/reports/through…

🚨 Important from @OxfordEconomics on why they stand fully behind their modelling of the cost of Inheritance Tax reform for @ukonward👇 oxfordeconomics.com/resource…

A really important blog from @NeilDotObrien on Inheritance Tax👇

IMPORTANT There’s been some debate today about the modelling conducted for @ukonward by @OxfordEconomics costing different reforms to Inheritance Tax - particularly from @DanNeidle. Dan has been typically courteous, but we disagree with his assessment. Oxford Economics response tonight is as follows: “There are different possible methodological approaches. We have followed an approach that aligns closely with previous research by the IFS, as was acknowledged by the report’s author. Our back-testing indicated that the model performed very well in predicting the number of estates paying IHT and IHT liabilities historically.”