Infectious Diseases Physician and Microbiologist. Professor Medical School. Australian National University. Views are my own.
Canberra Australia
Joined July 2012
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Prof Peter Collignon retweeted
Imagine two versions of yourself 20 years from now. One spent thousands of hours doomscrolling, consuming outrage, gossip, and algorithmic nonsense. The other read 1,000 books.
These two versions of you will have very different knowledge, attention spans and ways of thinking.
Reading books might be one of the best investments you can make in your future self. Especially in an AI-driven world where deep thinking, judgment and sustained attention will become increasingly valuable. The decline in reading scores over the past two decades gives readers an edge in a labour market that will be increasingly competitive for folks in their 40s and 50s.
One book a week. Twenty years. A completely different you.
Read my full column in The New Daily for free: buff.ly/Z49118z
Prof Peter Collignon retweeted
‘God created the world, but the Dutch created The Netherlands’. This map shows the land reclamation in The Netherlands. Source: buff.ly/30gKN0M
Prof Peter Collignon retweeted
Population aging is pushing up Chile’s crude cancer death rate, even as age-adjusted rates are falling.
In Chile, the annual number of cancer deaths as a share of the total population has been rising for decades. From this, it would be easy to assume that cancer is getting worse. But the chances of dying from cancer at most ages are lower than they used to be. The missing piece is that the country’s population is changing quickly, and older people now make up a much larger share.
That’s what the chart shows. The crude cancer death rate, in red, counts registered cancer deaths per 100,000 people of all ages. This metric has been going up, reflecting the fact that cancer risks increase steeply with age, and the population has grown much older.
The blue line, by contrast, shows the age-adjusted rate. This metric removes the effect of aging by holding the age structure constant.
This line has been falling for decades, which means that Chileans at almost every age are now less likely to die from cancer than people of the same age were in the past.
The pattern we see in Chile is happening in many other countries, too, and is visible in the global estimates.
(written by @EOrtizOspina)
Prof Peter Collignon retweeted
PS: Thank you @MichaelSFuhrer for having drawn my attention to that seminal paper!
Incidentally, he also made a great thread explaining the paper here on twitter (but his account is private so not visible to all)
teapaw.org/MichaelSFuhrer/status/…
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Prof Peter Collignon retweeted
So many papers in the literature about post-covid signals are essentially flawed
Ironically, a preprint was released just a few days ago by Bristol scientists who had done a huge analytical work finding a link to dementia
Alas, it is likely to be spurious as well
4/
Prof Peter Collignon retweeted
But my analysis focused on definition which were badly done
This paper shows that the problem is far wider
It also shows that using health records and positive test generates a signal of cerebral palsy ... which is purely fictitious when doing the analysis correctly !
3/
Prof Peter Collignon retweeted
This is a fundamental paper beyond LC
It shows that analyses comparing health records of people testing positive with those who don't (as often used with LC) yield false associations ie associations not found in a rigorous test-negative set up
1/
pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pna…
Prof Peter Collignon retweeted
Full report available here wellcomecollection.org/works… a robust 3 year study in england that concluded the impact of UV on illnesses amongst school children was not sufficient to warrant further investment
Prof Peter Collignon retweeted
Some diseases showed a statistically significant reduction in irradiated schools, and some showed a statistically significant increase
Prof Peter Collignon retweeted
There might be a slight improvement in absence overall in infant schools and this may be due to more immune naive popn. However junior see more absence in irradiated schools, so overall effect of UV is minimal
Prof Peter Collignon retweeted
extra data, here are some representations of some of the findings. Using a metric to describe the annual rate of absence per 100 child years here is the rates on a per absence reason
Prof Peter Collignon retweeted
12/12 any effect on absence due to illness was not considered great enough to justify the widespread, general use of ultra-violet irradiation in the rooms of urban primary day schools.
Prof Peter Collignon retweeted
11/12 Conclusions (1/2)
Upper-room UV effectively reduces airborne bacteria and can suppress secondary spread of some droplet-borne infectious fevers within classrooms under favorable ventilation and humidity conditions.
Prof Peter Collignon retweeted
9/12 Infant vs. Junior
Absences were higher in younger children (Infant: ~510) than Juniors (~410). UV showed minimal divergence: Infant absence fell slightly more (~11% vs ~8.5%), but neither department saw meaningful overall sickness reduction.
Prof Peter Collignon retweeted
8/12 The Bottom Line on Absence
Combined all-causes school absence rates were virtually identical:
• Control: 446.5 per 100 child-years
• Irradiated: 449.9 per 100 child-years
The diseases affected by UV were only a tiny fraction of total absences.
Prof Peter Collignon retweeted
7/12 Contagious Fevers & Secondary Spread
While total incidence didn't shift, secondary classroom attack rates for specific fevers fell:
• Measles: 19.3% → 13.0%
• Chickenpox: 2.7% → 0.6%
• Mumps & scarlet fever also saw modest secondary drops
Prof Peter Collignon retweeted
6/12 Did Illness Drop?
Despite cutting airborne bacteria sharply, major non-specific respiratory illnesses showed little to no overall reduction:
• Acute nasopharyngitis (colds): virtually identical rates
• Influenza: identical (~11-13 per 100 child-years)
Prof Peter Collignon retweeted
5/12 Bacteriological Success
Upper-room UV drastically sterilized the classroom air:
• Str. salivarius: down 70% (C/I = 3.60)
• Hemolytic streptococci (Str. pyogenes): down 80% (C/I = 5.11)
• Total streptococci: down 58% (C/I = 2.40)
• Aerobic flora: down 16%
Prof Peter Collignon retweeted
2/12 The SetupDriven by W.F. Wells’ droplet nucleus theory, the Medical Research Council tested air disinfection across 6 primary schools in Southall (Greater London):
• 3 schools with upper-room 30W UV lamps (XYZ)
• 3 non-irradiated control schools (ABC)