Trea Turner went from one of the best shortstops in baseball to a below-average hitter in one year. What changed? 2025 → 2026: 📉 fWAR: 6.5 → 1.1 💥 wOBA: .352 → .298 🏆 2025: NL batting title (.304) Turner’s avg and max exit velo were both down this year, despite a slight increase in bat speed from 2025. His hard hit rate and LA Sweet-Spot% also decreased, while his K% increased. Contact quality 2025 → 2026: ⚡️ Bat speed: 71.2 → 71.7 mph 💥 Avg exit velo: 89.3 → 88.4 mph 🚀 Max exit velo: 111.7 → 110.1 mph 🔨 HardHit%: 42.1% → 39.3% 🎯 LA Sweet-Spot%: 36.8% → 32.7% ❌ K%: 16.7% → 21.0% Turner’s batted balls were much less productive in 2026 than 2025. His oppo% went from 25.8% to 30.3%, and his air% increased by 3 points while his pull air% decreased. He also popped up nearly twice as often (4.3% → 8.0%). But despite him going opposite field more often, his attack direction and point of contact both moved more pull-side. While his barrel moved more pull-side in 2026, it’s likely that he struggled to release the barrel to match his direction. This would explain why he was going oppo more despite catching the ball further out in front. This was likely causing him to sidespin balls to the right side of the field and limiting his ability to flush balls in the air to the pull side, which could explain this change in ball flight. In addition to this, his path moving further out in front coincided with his whiff rate and chase rate both increasing. He particularly struggled with pitches at the bottom of the zone. Swing and miss 2025 → 2026: 🌀 Whiff%: 24.8% → 27.7% ⬇️ Low in-zone Whiff%: 14.9% → 20.0% 🔥 Low in-zone FB Whiff%: 6.2% → 12.6% 🪃 Low in-zone offspeed Whiff%: 16.7% → 28.6% 🔄 Offspeed Whiff%: 27.6% → 36.8% These changes likely stem from a small mechanical change. While his bat speed improved from 2025 to 2026, his path made it harder for him to consistently square the ball up. He may benefit from a return to his 2025 bat path. —@Stevie_T12

Good command doesn't guarantee good results. A targeting problem shows up when the data says a pitcher is hitting his spots, but the location results are still below average. It also works the other way: some pitchers have lower command but better location grades because they're aiming at better spots.

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Driveline's R&D team presented a new bat path model at Saberseminar. Trained on 35,000 swings from 700+ athletes in the Launchpad, validated against MLB data. It grades every swing on the offensive value it produces - contact quality, plane, and arsenal coverage. Then it generates every swing variation a hitter could take and finds the one that fits their body and training history best. Not a fantasy swing. A realistic target.