Countylineforecast.com now active! Browse all senate battleground states, county-by-county. I’ll be updating the site every few days, adding cool new features as we go!

Full transparency, because I try to be fair and balanced, (unlike our MAGA friends): Thru noon, Rs are crushing the IPEV for Monday. This is what you want to see if you want Reps to claw back towards their normal margins before Eday. As others have noted, the rest of the day favors Dems, so we’ll see what the final margin is for Reps, but they’re showing up today.

Or….maybe, just maybe…Dems are showing up to vote in droves and low propensity Reps are staying home?

He apparently didn’t read the few lines above that graphic, however. That YouGov poll shows DEMS leading in “definitely will vote or have already voted.” And those those who “may or may not” vote is led by Reps. It doesn’t take a PhD to realize he’s making the case for the Dem enthusiasm gap and doesn’t even know it 😂😂😂

Here we go with the cannibalizing argument again. This is the exact cope Dems had in the 2024 election.

For comparison, mail is 0.1 point and 0.2 points bluer this cycle compared to 2024 and 2022 respectively. But IPEV is is nearly 12 points (‘24) and 14 points (‘22) bluer this cycle. County comparisons below:

Do you know how bad EV needs to be for Reps for mainstream pundits to start saying stuff like this?

I overlaid county boundaries of the greater Houston area onto the 2024 results map and put @BethVanGreene’s awesome map side by side to see where the votes are coming from. Generally the high turnout zones closely mirror Houston’s blue or purple areas. You can see the high turnout clearly in the majority Black and Hispanic areas of east and south Houston Also, LOOK at the heavily Republican suburbs. Minus a few outliers, they line up almost perfectly with the areas of lowest turnout relative to 2024. I wouldn’t read too much into it yet, but through 5 days, Dem enthusiasm appears to be surging while Rep enthusiasm is clearly lagging.

Dem turnout leading Rep turnout by 7% in FL, which has kept them clinging to around a 2k lead thru Saturday. Interesting to see Indy turnout so low.

This man continues to try and dunk on the left, knowing full well Dallas County’s minority areas are FAR outpacing majority white areas across the county. And look at Tarrant county. The only area that’s outpacing 2024 is the majority Dem core.