Enjoy all things Bama, MLB (especially Braves), and charts. Especially charts. Gold Bug
Alabama, USA
Joined August 2021
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THE REFS IS CHEATIN FER BAMMER AGAIN Y’ALL retweeted
$SPY the lower gaps are at
$725-728
$712-714.7
$703
$660-670
Higher up we need to hold $743.5-745 with time. Not a wick, not a 1 day move.
I don’t think the market is ready yet. Scalping yes, holds no.
THE REFS IS CHEATIN FER BAMMER AGAIN Y’ALL retweeted
I can’t shake the feeling that selling your high-beta tech stocks already down 40-70%, to buy low/no growth consumer names at 30-100x earnings…might not be so smart, either.
THE REFS IS CHEATIN FER BAMMER AGAIN Y’ALL retweeted
No matter how good your set up is
If there’s no volume, you are gonna lose
THE REFS IS CHEATIN FER BAMMER AGAIN Y’ALL retweeted
$BMNR
Took Feb puts on this
I can see maybe a dead cat bounce, but there is a gap down to 17 that I'm pretty sure it will fill
THE REFS IS CHEATIN FER BAMMER AGAIN Y’ALL retweeted
$PLTR
Going into its earnings with a nice clean breakdown of the trendline. We might get a run up into its earnings to retest the trendline but make no mistake I would not be interested to be long on it honestly into the print, although it is a great company to hold long term just based off their execution currently but its a bloated stock!
Any miss or disappointment in the earnings PLTR can move towards 140-130 range and that is where I will be interested in the stock to add. Great company with good leadership but needs a reset or a pullback before it interests me.
THE REFS IS CHEATIN FER BAMMER AGAIN Y’ALL retweeted
$SMH So if you are fearful and a bear, under 500 you have massive problems with no support til 430
That said held the 200D, nice gap above now.
If this unwinds, would be a huge headwind for the markets
THE REFS IS CHEATIN FER BAMMER AGAIN Y’ALL retweeted
$SNDK staying contained inside blue bands at $1269-1380
THE REFS IS CHEATIN FER BAMMER AGAIN Y’ALL retweeted
Dealer Positioning / Heatmaps Class
LESSON 04: FLOORS, CEILINGS & GATEKEEPERS.
Do you recall watching SPX bounce off a level several times before that level just vanished?
Have you ever seen prices reject a level multiple times before breaking through and moving fast?
That's why I always mention floors, ceilings, and Gatekeepers in my Trinity commentary.
Today we learn how to read them.
Let's get into it. 👇
Also LMK if these are helpful so we keep doing them.
THE REFS IS CHEATIN FER BAMMER AGAIN Y’ALL retweeted
Let me be as simple and clear as possible:
IF by today's close, $VIX is higher than 18.50, then bears will have a wild run for a few days.
The warning sent on Oct. 15 was timely and accurate. $VIX broke over the declining trendline and the consequences will be shown up later next week--not on Mon & Tue, as a rebound is due. However, this break-out smashed a 18-month setup, so the fallout will be consequential.
THE REFS IS CHEATIN FER BAMMER AGAIN Y’ALL retweeted
SPY rejected off 772.22 as expected. Keep in mind though that the big 0dte level is the put wall at 765. Right now we are also giving just above the 50dma which is at 768.28. If we get a 3rd close below it then we are most likely starting a corrective move. A close above today likely means more chop.
THE REFS IS CHEATIN FER BAMMER AGAIN Y’ALL retweeted
October is the best time for tax planning.
Here are 11 tax moves to lower your 2026 tax bill before year ends:
THE REFS IS CHEATIN FER BAMMER AGAIN Y’ALL retweeted
LOCAL BOTTOM ALMOST IN ON $SPY.
Last week, on October 9th, in quoted post, I said that we had a weekly implied low sitting around 766.17–768.6.
We are VERY close to tagging the weekly implied low.
A strong bounce off the weekly implied low is likely if hit early on in the week.
I would not be surprised if we were back up at 772-775 by end of week.
The options market was not pricing in anything further than 766-768.
My thoughts? We rally back up, possibly fill the gap, then start our larger move down next week after all this gamma exposure rolls off.
755 is still my end of October target. But that doesn't mean we can't have bounces along the way.
BTW where was all them people saying 785-790 this week?
We have done nothing over the last 60 days. Price has essentially gone nowhere.
Strength disguised as distribution is all this is.
755 by end of October.
715 by end of December
And possibly 800 by February with a V shape.
That's the roadmap my signals are calling for. Take it for what you will.
— TJ
#SPX #SPY #SP500 #ES_F #QQQ #NDX #CL_F #US10Y #TLT
The options market is pricing in the following moves for $SPY on Monday and next week.
MONDAY’S DAILY IMPLIED MOVE:
Upper: $781.87–$782.75
Lower: $773.95–$774.83
NEXT WEEK’S WEEKLY IMPLIED MOVE:
Upper: $788.10–$790.53
Lower: $766.17–$768.60
Something interesting…
Every single day this week, we tagged either the upper or lower daily implied move.
Monday: Upper hit.
Tuesday: Upper hit.
Wednesday: Lower hit.
Thursday: Lower hit.
Friday: Upper hit.
5 FOR 5.
Last week, we tagged the LOWER weekly implied move.
This week, we tagged the UPPER weekly implied move.
Let’s see what next week brings.
My guess, given weekly signals and everything we covered is that the bulls have probably until Wednesday to get this above 780. After that, hot inflation, rate hike probability for October shoots up, market flips out and sells to lower end of weekly implied move.
Bringing us closer to my October 30th target of 755.5.
There is about a 85% chance the S&P 500 is tagging $755.50 by October 30th.
— TJ
