crankitup retweeted
You really need to be an absolute schizo to own $GLXY stock
This PA makes 0 sense and @novogratz is out there telling AI could end humanity while building data center
Get this guy out of management on a stretcher please
crankitup retweeted
Let's not panic folks. Datacenter neo clouds are highly leveraged business which leverage cuts both ways but credit isn't in crisis.
That said at current cost of leverage data center inputs demand should slow a tad
crankitup retweeted
This is still my favorite inflation measurement...
And it's telling me that the Fed shouldn't hike rates.
This is the YoY inflation rate for the "all items less energy" component.
It measured +2.54% YoY in September 2026, up from +2.47% in August 2026.
In other words, higher/faster crude oil prices/inflation aren't having a ripple effect throughout the economy and causing all other goods and services to experience higher inflation.
This is a great sign.
But it also points to a problem...
The Federal Reserve cannot combat energy-specific inflation, particularly if that energy-specific inflation is not causing accelerated price increases for all other goods/services.
Based on the data we have in front of us today, we don't see evidence of that ripple effect.
On the contrary, "all items less energy" inflation (YoY) is at its lowest rate since March 2021.
I'm not saying that this is the "real" inflation rate, or that energy prices don't count...
I'm trying to extract energy to evaluate how ALL OTHER components in the CPI basket are evolving.
And the reality is that all other components are experiencing continued and persistent disinflation, even if it's at a slow pace.
Look at 2021 and 2022, as an example.
In that period, non-energy components were experiencing the highest inflation levels in decades and this forced the Fed to react by embarking on the most aggressive rate hike cycle in ~50 years.
Is that same inflation dynamic happening today?
No.
Yes, prices are still going up.
But they are going up at a pace that is (generally) consistent with the historical range.
Embrace nuance.
crankitup retweeted
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crankitup retweeted
1/ Most people can't explain TIG in two sentences. Let me try 馃У
2/ Companies lose a lot of money to slow, mediocre algorithms: delivery routes, schedules, energy trades, AI workloads. Better algorithms exist, but they're usually locked up or hard to find.
3/ TIG is an open competition for algorithms. Experts set the problems and innovators compete to beat the best solution. Winning contributions are rewarded.
4/ Everything is open. Using the algorithms is free if you share what you build. If a company wants to keep its data private, it pays a licence fee, and that fee funds more open research.
5/ Why it matters: AI runs on algorithms. If the best ones end up locked inside a few closed companies, everyone else loses out. Keeping them open keeps progress open.
6/ It's early but moving: new challenges are coming (matrix multiplication, explainable AI), and licensing talks with companies are underway.
7/ If you work in logistics, energy, finance or AI and want better algorithms, come and see what's being built. If you love hard maths problems, come and compete.
tig.foundation/network
base:0x0c03ce270b4826ec62e7dd007f0b716068639f7b #TIG #TheInnovationGame
#DeSci #DePIN #ProofOfUsefulWork #DecentralizedAI
#OperationsResearch #Logistics #SupplyChain #AI
crankitup retweeted
I hope @novogratz reads Danny鈥檚 post below. There have been countless loyal retail investors that have stuck with @galaxyhq over the years and defended backing the guy with the Luna tattoo. But most seem to be either leaving outright or trimming their positions, and rightfully so.
- Nasdaq is at 52 week high. We have a great backdrop to capitalize on AI datacenters and crypto becoming the rails. Yet here we are.
- Other mgmt teams are 100% focused on their companies and promoting them. Novogratz seems to operate more as a family office and spends his time dabbling in nonprofits, political podcasts, personal investments. And I don鈥檛 blame him-if I had the money I鈥檇 run a family office/enjoy life too. But I also wouldn鈥檛 be one foot in and one foot out as the CEO of a publicly traded company while speaking about random topics.
- Without much communication it feels from the outside that Galaxy has become a jack of all trades/master of none and we are being surpassed by both the more nimble/focused teams and the big boys.
- The stock remains incredibly undervalued due to all of the reasons above: complex conglomerate business, CEO missteps/lack of focus, and lack of communication with that swag!!
- I fully understand retail investors on x likely represent less than 5% so pleasing them shouldn鈥檛 be a focus of mgmt. But novo always says community is critical in this space鈥erception is reality and the perception is not great.
- Please prove everyone wrong Novo. Hit us with that blowout Q3, sign up that new tenant at monster margins, announce new partnerships, talk about setting the stage for splitting the companies, or surprise us all and sell the company outright to strategics. And please stop with the wild political posts which add zero value.
Stock Down. Guns Up!! $GLXY
I have have been the biggest $GLXY bull on X for the past 2 years
I鈥檝e held the stock for 5-6 years and made generational gains from it
I often use leverage to increase my position size
I have defended management numerous times from all the keyboard warriors
With that being said I have started to decrease my position and will continue to
I believe we are starting a crypto cycle and being correctly allocated with give you huge gains. My belief is it will be hard for any equity to outperform Bitcoin / ethereum / sol / zcash
All these assets have ETFs to buy as previous cycles they did not
Part of the reason I held $GLXY was their exposure to crypto when I couldn鈥檛 get it
My fear with $GLXY is that it underperforms crypto substantially during the next 12-24 months
It already lagged data centre stocks in 2025 and the fear of another underperformance weighs on me
There is too much opportunity cost to only have exposure to a single stock during this time
Unfortunately, what I have also learned is the lack of leadership $GLXY has. I have been the ultimate shareholder giving management the benefit of the doubt dozens of times but I can鈥檛 anymore
Novogratz does virtually 0 to promote the company or stock
PR is run by an interim who tweets once a week
Marketing is non existent
The business is too complicated to let the market figure it out for themselves and the price action is showing that
After studying many companies recently I am fascinated by two CEO- @ColeMacro and @rftylerpage from Strive and CIFR respectfully
Every day they wake up and try to provide more value for shareholders. This is what I want when I am over concentrated in a single stock
I have been a loyal and passionate shareholder for many years. While I will continue to hold the stock my position size will be scaled down
I am long $ASST and will continue to build a substantial position
$CYPH has already doubled since my first purchase and will buy on dips
Thank you all and remember this game is won only if you make money. That鈥檚 the only thing that matters. Do what you need to win.
What is clear is that there is no way on earth @novogratz does not see the $glxy PA every day
Yet, he has done absolutely nothing to give some real hopes to his shareholders, and instead crushed them with incorrect statements
I have have been the biggest $GLXY bull on X for the past 2 years
I鈥檝e held the stock for 5-6 years and made generational gains from it
I often use leverage to increase my position size
I have defended management numerous times from all the keyboard warriors
With that being said I have started to decrease my position and will continue to
I believe we are starting a crypto cycle and being correctly allocated with give you huge gains. My belief is it will be hard for any equity to outperform Bitcoin / ethereum / sol / zcash
All these assets have ETFs to buy as previous cycles they did not
Part of the reason I held $GLXY was their exposure to crypto when I couldn鈥檛 get it
My fear with $GLXY is that it underperforms crypto substantially during the next 12-24 months
It already lagged data centre stocks in 2025 and the fear of another underperformance weighs on me
There is too much opportunity cost to only have exposure to a single stock during this time
Unfortunately, what I have also learned is the lack of leadership $GLXY has. I have been the ultimate shareholder giving management the benefit of the doubt dozens of times but I can鈥檛 anymore
Novogratz does virtually 0 to promote the company or stock
PR is run by an interim who tweets once a week
Marketing is non existent
The business is too complicated to let the market figure it out for themselves and the price action is showing that
After studying many companies recently I am fascinated by two CEO- @ColeMacro and @rftylerpage from Strive and CIFR respectfully
Every day they wake up and try to provide more value for shareholders. This is what I want when I am over concentrated in a single stock
I have been a loyal and passionate shareholder for many years. While I will continue to hold the stock my position size will be scaled down
I am long $ASST and will continue to build a substantial position
$CYPH has already doubled since my first purchase and will buy on dips
Thank you all and remember this game is won only if you make money. That鈥檚 the only thing that matters. Do what you need to win.
crankitup retweeted
I have have been the biggest $GLXY bull on X for the past 2 years
I鈥檝e held the stock for 5-6 years and made generational gains from it
I often use leverage to increase my position size
I have defended management numerous times from all the keyboard warriors
With that being said I have started to decrease my position and will continue to
I believe we are starting a crypto cycle and being correctly allocated with give you huge gains. My belief is it will be hard for any equity to outperform Bitcoin / ethereum / sol / zcash
All these assets have ETFs to buy as previous cycles they did not
Part of the reason I held $GLXY was their exposure to crypto when I couldn鈥檛 get it
My fear with $GLXY is that it underperforms crypto substantially during the next 12-24 months
It already lagged data centre stocks in 2025 and the fear of another underperformance weighs on me
There is too much opportunity cost to only have exposure to a single stock during this time
Unfortunately, what I have also learned is the lack of leadership $GLXY has. I have been the ultimate shareholder giving management the benefit of the doubt dozens of times but I can鈥檛 anymore
Novogratz does virtually 0 to promote the company or stock
PR is run by an interim who tweets once a week
Marketing is non existent
The business is too complicated to let the market figure it out for themselves and the price action is showing that
After studying many companies recently I am fascinated by two CEO- @ColeMacro and @rftylerpage from Strive and CIFR respectfully
Every day they wake up and try to provide more value for shareholders. This is what I want when I am over concentrated in a single stock
I have been a loyal and passionate shareholder for many years. While I will continue to hold the stock my position size will be scaled down
I am long $ASST and will continue to build a substantial position
$CYPH has already doubled since my first purchase and will buy on dips
Thank you all and remember this game is won only if you make money. That鈥檚 the only thing that matters. Do what you need to win.
crankitup retweeted
There is a crypto project being built by actual PhDs, mathematicians and computational scientists. $TIG
And people are still sleeping on it.
They are building something that could actually matter far beyond crypto.
@tigfoundation
The market will eventually understand.
crankitup retweeted
This guy gets it! $TIG
The repricing will be glorious
@tigfoundation
Early AF
There is a crypto project being built by actual PhDs, mathematicians and computational scientists. $TIG
And people are still sleeping on it.
They are building something that could actually matter far beyond crypto.
@tigfoundation
The market will eventually understand.
crankitup retweeted
$TIG is going to mint millionaires and the team knows how important it is to make your early adopters rich.. Study the world computer culture of the early ethereum community this creates strong incentive alignment and a self-reinforcing feedback loop of belief + capital
You still have time to position yourself and grab a bag of ethereum:0x365accfca291e7d3914637abf1f7635db165bb09
3 digits per token is coming this Fall
crankitup retweeted
The stock I'm most bullish on right now is $GLXY
I just raised my price target to $97, a 4.2x from here
I built a SOTP valuation for Galaxy breaking down 3 parts of the business:
- AI data centers
- Crypto brokerage
- Balance sheet
Here's the break down:
1. The AI data center business (Helios+)
CoreWeave signed a 15 year lease on 526MW of Helios (plus two 5 year extensions). That's $1.2B+ of average annual revenue at 90%+ margins, over $30B across the full term
Phase I (133MW) is already online and paying ~$80M a quarter. Phase II starts delivering Q2 2027, Phase III in 2028
Fully built, that's ~$950M a year of EBITDA from ONE tenant. At 10-20x (where data center landlords trade) that's $9.5B to $19B.
Galaxy's entire market cap is $8.9B right now, so everything I discuss below is currently priced at FREE
Then there's Helios II: another 830MW that ERCOT classified as Base Load on Sept 8, while Texas has paused new data center interconnections. Helios II gets a pass, many others do not
There's no tenant signed yet, but power is THE bottleneck right now and this is one of the only big blocks available for 2028. If Galaxy signs it at $2.2M/MW the finished building is worth $13B. At $2.5M/MW (what I think this scarcity gets them) it's $21B
There still no tenant announced for this which is why $GLXY still trades like shit, but thats the opportunity. For one, its not going to be hard to find a tenant and two, the longer they wait the higher premium they get ad demand continues to grow
On top of that there's 4.9GW more in the pipeline (Merlin, Caspian, Selene) that I give almost no value to right now but will bring some optional value later next year
2. The crypto business
Everyone forgets Galaxy made $505M of gross profit and $247M of EBITDA from trading, lending and asset management in 2025, when BTC averaged a price of $100K
This year with BTC <$70K it's roughly breakeven. That's the whole point, this business is a call option on the crypto bull market, which I now believe we are in based on recent price action
If BTC goes to $125K-$150K in 2027 like I expect (could be much higher FYI), I have this at $280M-$470M of EBITDA. At 13-15x that's $4B-$8B of value the market is paying ~zero for today
Also, if this happens, then the profit can be used to reduce dilution for the data center capex.
3. The balance sheet
Galaxy holds $2.5B of cash and stablecoins plus ~$1.2B of crypto and investments (including an Etched stake). Against that, ~$3.5B of debt plus the $3.5B of notes it raised in July to build Phase II
So net debt is roughly a wash today, and it grows to ~$5B as Helios II gets built in 2027
The biggest risk right now from the market is CoreWeave. It's the only tenant and the market is pricing its credit risk (its CDS traded at ~50% implied default odds in July). That's why my bear case uses 10x, but I think thats irrational bc CoreWeave has never missed a payment, its backlog is $129B, and if its credit normalizes the multiple goes to 20x (or more). That one multiple is worth ~$20/share on Helios I alone (my god Galaxy is so under priced)
So here's where it lands (bear / base / bull):
EOY 2026: $15 / $34 / $67
EOY 2027: $23 / $52 / $97
Even my BEAR case for 2027 is at today's price and that assumes no Helios II tenant, BTC at $85K and the lowest multiple in the group. The risk/reward here is unlike any stock on the market
$GLXY is one of my largest holdings in my Milk Road PRO portfolio and I've been adding to it all year on dips. For more calls like this and to see what else is in my portfolio, check out PRO here: link.milkroad.com/t5837z
There is no stock out there like $GLXY and its flywheel for a re-rate just kicked off!
Here's what the market is missing about Galaxy
Galaxy sits in one of the most in-demand products globally right now: Land, Power, Shell (LPS)
And it funded this from its crypto business, which is one of the most successful institutional brokerages in the industry + $3.5 Billion of digital assets held on their balance sheet
The flywheel in this business is simple:
Use the profits and balance sheet from its crypto business to fund its AI datacenter (LPS) business as well as receive favourable financing deals
Because the LPS business takes billions of $ to build out and years to finalize and monetize, the funding part is extremely important
The problem in the last 9 months is that the crypto business has been absolutely cooked as crypto fell into a deep bear market
Galaxy's balance sheet shrank, its crypto business took a hit and when analysts start to model out how Galaxy can fund its LPS business, it looked like bankruptcy waiting to happen
As a result, Galaxy went from a $20B market cap down to an $8B market cap. The market valued Galaxy on its Helios l Data Center alone as it is already online, generating revenue with a long-term contracted client in CoreWeave (valued around $8B)
It gave no value to its balance sheet of crypto assets, no value to the crypto business and no value to future Data Centres, likely out of risk it would never happen
However, the one thing that could change everything for Galaxy is for crypto prices and the crypto industry to grow once again. If they can grow their balance sheet, become profitable and show growth in the crypto business, the flywheel kicks off and the rest of the LPS business makes sense once again
As usual in a crypto bear market, analysts never think crypto will comeback and they start modelling in the bear market numbers as the trend moving forward, forgetting how fast crypto can bounce back
If both of these businesses are firing at the same time, Galaxy has optionality for financing and investing across Bitcoin and other digital assets or more AI Data Centres depending on the opportunities that sit in front of them
These are two very powerful industries to have expertise in and to have optionality and preferred access in. The possibilities here are endless
If crypto does find itself entering a renewed bull market, with clear regulations from the SEC and an incoming Clarity Act in the USA, then Galaxy's crypto business will quickly become extremely profitable and a fast growing business that will require much larger multiple than the market is giving it today (which is basically 0)
Add that to the fact that Jensen Haung is telling us that LPS is the most important bottleneck for AI right now, with clear demand for this growing during every earnings quarter, the future data centres to come online for Galaxy will likely be leased at a premium vs. its first contract.
And by the way, they have a contract coming any day now for Helios ll, which is similar MW to Helios l. Which means we could have Helios l valued at $8B, Helios ll at another $8B and an incoming crypto business that should be valued around $2-$3B should BTC remain in the $70s-$80s (with potential for much more)
I think the stock should be valued closer to $40/share today ($15B market cap), but if we see crypto and AI both growing together, we are not far from Galaxy reaching a $100/share ($35B-$40B market cap)
Galaxy is one of the largest positions in my Milk Road PRO portfolio. You can track that portoflio, along with 4 other top-tier analysts real-time portfolios and research inside of Milk Road PRO right now
We're increasing prices on August 26 but if you subscribe now, you can lock in current prices for life. Why do this bull market alone if you don't have to?
Learn more here: link.milkroad.com/lvwzti
Don't forget to give me a follow @kylereidhead for more insights on AI and markets
