@CyclesFan

I don't have a Telegram account and don't sell newsletters.

Joined April 2014
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The forward PE of $SOX at the 2022 low was 12.8 and at the 2018 low was 11.5. Semis had a parabolic run from April 2025 to June 2026 and these parabolas always end with a bear market. It's just a historical fact. Typical drawdowns in the past were 43%-55%. xitter.cf/GroupFinom/status/2114…
Finom Group
@GroupFinom23h
Seriously? Seriously bruh 😎 At just 16.4X P/E, Semiconductors are now trading at a valuation beneath... far beneath the S&P 500. This often proves a bottoming for both, like 2025 and early 2026. $SMH $SPX $SPY $SOXX $NVDA $AMD $MU $AVGO $QQQ $NDX $INTC $MRVL (chart via Koyfin)
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$EWZ the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF is down 22% in pre market. Voting for a commie POS has consequences, though it's obvious from what happened there that the elections were rigged. When leftists start rigging elections the only way out is a civil war.
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As usual gold bogs are disconnected from reality. In July 1999 gold had been in a 20 year bear market with a monthly RSI at 27 and was the most hated risk asset. Now it's only 9 months into an early stage bear market coming off the highest RSI in history. xitter.cf/DonDurrett/status/2114…
Don Durrett - goldstockdata.com
@DonDurrett16h
Wow, Gary drops the hammer! Read what he has to say below. He thinks gold is dead until 2029! As De Niro said in Heat, there's a flip side to that coin. When the stock market crashed in 2000, gold was around $250. That crash occurred after an 18-year bull market. Gold proceeded to rip from $250 to $1900 over the next decade, as the stock market languished. We are currently in a 17-year bull market on Wall Street that has similar overtones. In 2000, it was the dot-com bubble. Today, it is the AI bubble. But it's even worse. Today, we also have a debt bubble and an inflation problem. Neither of those existed in 2000. So, riddle me this Batman, if the stock market falls and ignites a fear trade, do you really think gold is going down, or will get stuck at these levels? 🤔
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$SPX - The next 16-17 week cycle low is due in the 2nd half of November. The last 17 week cycle was very bullish but this one is more similar to the one from November 2025 to March 2026(see the TSI). Therefore, this time it's likely to at least hit the lower BB in November.
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$NVDA - Closed the week below the 20 week MA. Notice that it also closed below the 20 week MA in June, and in that case instead of going lower it traded sideways for the next 5 weeks, but this time It's likely to go lower over the next 4/5 weeks and hit the lower BB at 191.
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$GOOGL is close to breaking the July low and I think it will break it eventually, if not next week then in November. The A=C downside target is $291.
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The huge number of likes for this post tells you all you need to know about where silver is headed in the next 3 years. It's headed to $20, not to $200. xitter.cf/hajiyev_rashad/status/…
Rashad Hajiyev
@hajiyev_rashadOct 24
Silver's 47-year cup & handle breakout and retest completed. I do not see any further downside from here; if any is should be marginal. Silver is going to start and epic run to $200 plus by 2027 from present price levels in my view...
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The period with the highest correlation to the current stock market is 09/11/1995 to 01/15/1996. In that period the S&P 500(green) was +5%. The Nasdaq 100(purple) was -12%. The Semiconductor Index(blue) was -44%. The equivalent of the January 1996 low is coming in November.
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$SOXX is going to break the July low. The next intermediate term low is due at the next 16-17 week cycle low that is due in November. The cycle from November 2025 to March 2026 was longer due to the Iran war and it may be longer again if there's another Iran war in November.
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$USOIL - Crude oil continued its rally this week and at this point it's probably headed back to the 115-120 range. The rally will end only if Trump announces some deal with Iran after the mid term elections, instead of resuming the strikes on Iran.
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$TLT has confirmed that it made an intermediate term low by closing the week above the 10 week MA. When it made intermediate term lows in October 2022 and October 2023 it rallied $18 into its next intermediate term high. A repeat of that would take it to around 94.43 this time.
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$Silver has broken the July low and closed the week at 53.89. There's a 81-84 trading day cycle that goes back to the April 2025 low. This cycle indicates that the next intermediate term low, which will also be the low for 2026, is due on November 11 plus minus 2 trading days.
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$Gold - After being resilient last week it resumed its decline this week and closed the week at 3996. At this point it's obvious that it will at least retest the June low, but more likely break it in November. The target is the lower BB that is currently at 3906.
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$QQQ - So far it's holding above the support at 700. In order to bounce to the top of the range(728) it would have to trade above 715(gap). Next week, there's still a chance that instead of a bounce we will see a washout to 680 which is near the 200 day MA, and only then bounce.
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$AVGO - Price is less than 5% away from the 100 week MA, a key long term moving average which it last hit at the April 2025 low. I expect it to bottom there and then we'll see if it's able to make a new ATH in 2027 or a bear market is already underway.
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$BTC - The close above the 20 DMA on Wednesday was reversed yesterday, so a new high for Q4 will probably not happen anytime soon. Notice that it hasn't closed below the lower BB since June, so a close below the lower BB will confirm that a decline into late November is underway.
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$MU - It's doing better than I expected. While SOXX basically hit its 200 day MA yesterday Micron was nowhere near doing that. If it made short term low yesterday, which is a big if, it could bounce to the 100 day MA that's currently at 973 in early November.
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While tech is suffering, with $SPX it's business as usual. It has not even broken the monthly pivot at 7647. As I noted on Sunday with regards to the disconnection between QQQ and SOX, this even bigger disconnection between SPX and SOX is similar to past action from late 1995.
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$QQQ was demolished today and has almost reached the horizontal support at 700. I think it's likely to bottom here and have a big bounce off 700 but if it closes below 700, the next downside target would be the monthly support at 681. We'll find out tomorrow.
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$META - Today's action has confirmed that it made an intermediate term top on Sep 24. The next support is gap support at 638 but it's probably headed lower into the 2nd half of November. Overall, it's a continuation of the price mess of the last 52 weeks. no clear pattern here.
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