ADRIAN MORRIS ON AI, ASST, MSTR, SATS xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1nGeLMAlm…

Stackers keep stacking🥞

🥁 And the winner is… @renatoenfisema! 🎉 Threw a change up with the Friday Stack format. Thanks to everyone who hopped in and added to the discussion. Catch us every Friday at 12:30pm ET.

Bitcoin slipped under $80K again, and on a Saturday. BTC dropped to about $79,100, and around $150M in longs got liquidated in roughly 4 hours (Coinglass). We don't see one clear trigger. Weekend moves like this have been rarer since the spot ETFs launched, but thin weekend liquidity can turn a small dip into a cascade. Last weekend saw a smaller dip that got bought back within hours. This one is worth a closer look. Here's the backdrop. Bitcoin held up well while the rest of the market struggled. Higher-than-expected US inflation, rising oil and jumping Treasury yields hit tech stocks, silver and gold. Chip stocks are down almost 20% since Oct 6 and the Nasdaq 100 is off around 8%. On Wednesday, we saw BTC eyeing $85K. Since Thursday, it has stopped ignoring the pressure. Here's what we're watching: → The 50-week average near $76K. It has been a decent bull/bear dividing line, and BTC is still above it. → The May high. Bitcoin has now given back its breakout above it, which active traders may read as a sign of weakness. → Stocks. In big sell-offs, Bitcoin has almost always been pulled down with them. → The Fed on Wednesday. Markets price ~90% odds of no change, but Warsh's press conference could add volatility. Zooming out, BTC is still up over 37% from the July low. Silver, meanwhile, hit a new yearly low, and gold is struggling near its own lows. To us, this looks like a pullback in a nervous market, not a verdict. How the week plays out depends a lot on what stocks do next.

Taking a BTC loan? Our friends at @hodlwithLedn are offering .25% off their lowest rates with our link: ledn.io/partner/dailystack

Taking a BTC loan? Our friends at @hodlwithLedn are offering .25% off their lowest rates with our link: ledn.io/partner/dailystack

Everyone keeps asking if the four-year Bitcoin cycle is dead. Glassnode and Fasanara just put out a report, and the data is more interesting than a yes or no. Bitcoin's realized cap grew by about $737B this cycle. That's more than the last three cycles combined. But the percentage gains keep shrinking. Bigger market, smaller multiples. The drawdown tells the same story. Price fell about 34% from the October 2025 high, but in February realized cap dropped only 2.7%, less than half of what 2018 and 2022 looked like at their worst. Then there's the froth. At the 2025 peak, only 37% of realized cap sat in coins that had moved in the past 3 months. That's less than half of 2018. Now it's 21%. Fewer people chasing the top. Who's buying? Companies added 268,000 BTC over the past year. ETFs still hold about 1.3M BTC, only 6% below their peak, even after outflows. Worth noting that a lot of the corporate buying comes from a handful of names, Strategy above all. Glassnode's own mood gauge was ice cold at the end of June (82% of its 45 indicators at the coldest reading). By early October, more than half were back to neutral. That's recovery, not a confirmed uptrend. My read: the cycle isn't dead. Last time still went high after the halving, then crashed. But each halving matters a bit less, and ETFs, companies and global liquidity matter a bit more. Is the four-year cycle dead or just changing shape?

📑 BRIEFING | Who owns 61,000 seized Bitcoin? Two governments. One pile of coins. About $5B at today's prices. THE CASE Zhimin Qian ran investment schemes in China from 2014 to 2017 and raised about 40B yuan (~$5.7B). Part of the proceeds went into Bitcoin. She fled to the UK, was arrested in York in April 2024, and was sentenced in November 2025 to 11 years and 8 months for money laundering involving crypto. Victims: more than 128,000 per UK prosecutors, more than 102,000 in the Chinese proceedings. THE SEIZURE UK authorities seized more than 61,000 BTC, one of the largest crypto seizures on record. TWO COURTS, TWO TRACKS UK | On Oct 12, the High Court ruled that Chinese law governs the victims' ownership claims. CHINA | A Tianjin court accepted a confiscation application on Sept 28. A notice on Oct 13 opened a six-month window for claimants. The filing covers 61,896.41552945 BTC, plus BCH, BTG, BSV, XRP, DOGE, cash and gold. Qian is treated as a fugitive there. DECIDED ✔ Chinese law applies to the victims' claims STILL OPEN ✖ Do victims own the coins, or only get their losses back? ✖ Must the UK hand anything over to China? ✖ Final ownership and distribution THE NUMBER TO WATCH UK coverage cites victim claims of about £640M (~$850M). That is not a court-fixed total, and it is roughly a sixth of the Bitcoin's current value. WHY IT MATTERS Seizures are turning governments into large Bitcoin holders. This case will help set the precedent for who gets the gain when seized Bitcoin rises in value.

Need liquidity, but selling your Bitcoin isn’t part of the plan? Put your BTC to work without selling it. Explore Bitcoin-backed loans from Daily Stack sponsor @hodlwithledn 👇 ledn.io/partner/dailystack