Bitcoin. Stocks. AI. The three themes defining the next decade. Live M-F 12:30 ET with the people actually moving markets || By @21RatesHQ
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Threw a change up with the Friday Stack format. Thanks to everyone who hopped in and added to the discussion.
Catch us every Friday at 12:30pm ET.
Everyone keeps asking if the four-year Bitcoin cycle is dead. Glassnode and Fasanara just put out a report, and the data is more interesting than a yes or no.
Bitcoin's realized cap grew by about $737B this cycle. That's more than the last three cycles combined. But the percentage gains keep shrinking. Bigger market, smaller multiples.
The drawdown tells the same story. Price fell about 34% from the October 2025 high, but in February realized cap dropped only 2.7%, less than half of what 2018 and 2022 looked like at their worst.
Then there's the froth. At the 2025 peak, only 37% of realized cap sat in coins that had moved in the past 3 months. That's less than half of 2018. Now it's 21%. Fewer people chasing the top.
Who's buying? Companies added 268,000 BTC over the past year. ETFs still hold about 1.3M BTC, only 6% below their peak, even after outflows. Worth noting that a lot of the corporate buying comes from a handful of names, Strategy above all.
Glassnode's own mood gauge was ice cold at the end of June (82% of its 45 indicators at the coldest reading). By early October, more than half were back to neutral. That's recovery, not a confirmed uptrend.
My read: the cycle isn't dead. Last time still went high after the halving, then crashed. But each halving matters a bit less, and ETFs, companies and global liquidity matter a bit more.
Is the four-year cycle dead or just changing shape?
@PunterJeff of @Strive nearly joined a company under FBI investigation for a $4 billion fraud. The collateral was fake.
That's when it clicked: $BTC is the best collateral on the planet. You can trace it.
Most of the $800 to $900 billion at risk in reinsurance? Untraceable.