David Offor

From reforms to delivery: Our infrastructure investment and growth strategy By Bola Ahmed Tinubu Since 2023, we have made difficult but necessary decisions: removing the petrol subsidy, unifying the exchange rate, modernising the tax framework, and coordinating action on inflation. These reforms have restored macro balance, quadrupled federation revenue since 2021 and rebuilt the credibility of the State’s balance sheet. The results are now visible: real GDP growth reached 4.43% in Q2 2026 and 4.2% in H1, up from 2.74% in 2023, while headline inflation fell to 14.63% in September 2026 from 20.98% a year earlier. Food inflation, while still elevated, stood at 19.59%. Gross external reserves reached USD 55.1 billion as of 9 October 2026, including about USD 46 billion in net reserves, an 18-year high. The NFEM exchange rate stood at ₦1,333/US$, with the market spread below 5%, and public debt remains low compared to peers. Nigeria’s cost of borrowing keeps falling. Confidence has a price, our cost of borrowing is going down, and the country risk premium has drastically decreased. This changes the purpose of public borrowing. The objective is to increasingly direct new borrowing towards productive capital investment, while maintaining fiscal discipline, reducing refinancing pressures and ensuring that public debt translates into measurable economic value. Nigeria borrows to invest in roads, ports, rail and power that will generate growth, revenue and jobs for decades. Every Naira and every dollar raised goes to assets that create value, and that value repays the debt. This is how Nigeria will reach the objective of a USD 1 trillion economy by 2030: not through consumption, but through investment in the infrastructure that makes growth possible. This shift is being supported by a stronger fiscal position: tax-to-GDP has risen to 12.5% from 7%, net FAAC increased by 44% from ₦15.2 trillion in 2024 to ₦21.9 trillion in 2025, and Nigeria recorded a ₦20.1 trillion trade surplus in H1 2026, almost double the ₦10.2 trillion recorded in H1 2025. Borrowing to build, not to bridge, not for consumption: Nigeria is fundamentally changing the purpose of public borrowing: from financing short-term fiscal pressures to investing in assets that will transform the economy for generations. This shift is taking place with public debt at 35.75% of GDP in Q2 2026 and debt service at about 65% of revenue in H1 2026, underscoring why investment must remain anchored in fiscal discipline. The Federal Executive Council economic strategy is clear on this point: no deficit monetisation and no unfunded commitments during the pre-election period. At the heart of this disciplined shift towards productive borrowing are our administration's legacy projects: The administration is focusing productive borrowing on financing major infrastructure projects, including the Lagos–Calabar Coastal Highway; improvements to the power sector and electricity grid; the Sokoto–Badagry Superhighway; the Trans-Sahara Superhighway; and upgrades to Nigeria’s major commercial ports in Lagos. Together with other priority projects, the rehabilitation of key hospitals, and investment in education and vocational training, these investments are game-changing. They will connect entire economic regions, unlock agricultural and industrial potential, reduce logistics costs, attract private investment and create hundreds of thousands of direct and indirect employment opportunities over time. Delivery is already visible on the Lagos-Calabar highway as a major transport infrastructure project as of August 2026. Lot 2 was reported to be over 80% complete, while Calabar–Akwa Ibom works were over 30% complete. This increased emphasis on investment is also evident at the subnational level, where the share of state spending devoted to capital expenditure rose from 46% in 2023 to 61% in 2025.

STATEHOUSE PRESS RELEASE PRESIDENT TINUBU DEFENDS BORROWING PLANS, SAYS INVESTMENTS WILL EXPAND OPPORTUNITIES FOR FUTURE GENERATIONS President Bola Tinubu has robustly responded to criticism, especially from opposition leaders, over new loans the country has accessed from international institutions and banks. In an essay titled “From reforms to delivery: Our infrastructure investment and growth strategy,” to be published on Nigerian news platforms, President Tinubu wrote: “The real question is not how much we borrow, but what we build, what value we create and what future we leave behind.” President Tinubu identified the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway, Sokoto-Badagry Superhighway, Trans-Sahara Superhighway, electricity grid upgrades and the modernisation of key commercial ports in Lagos as major projects expected to strengthen Nigeria’s productive capacity. He said the projects, alongside investments in healthcare, education and vocational training, would connect economic regions, reduce logistics costs, unlock agricultural and industrial potential and attract private investment. The Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway is expected to cut logistics costs along its corridor by 15 to 20 per cent. It could add up to two per cent to Nigeria’s GDP through expanded trade, tourism, and industrial activity. The project is also projected to generate about 100,000 direct jobs in construction and engineering, alongside more than 150,000 indirect jobs in logistics, materials and related services. “We are not simply building highways. We are opening economic corridors, connecting markets, unlocking industries and reshaping Nigeria’s economic geography,” the President said. He said the administration’s ambition to build a $1 trillion economy by 2030 would require sustained infrastructure investment to support higher productivity, industrialisation and trade. “We cannot build a USD 1 trillion economy with infrastructure designed for an economy a fraction of that size,” Tinubu said. He wrote that improving economic indicators and growing international investor confidence are creating opportunities for Nigeria to attract long-term investment and expand critical infrastructure. The President said the economic reforms his administration introduced in May 2023 helped restore macroeconomic stability, strengthen public finances, and improve the country’s standing in international financial markets. He said a $1 trillion economy would not emerge by declaration alone but must be built through sustained investment, higher productivity, industrialisation, and trade, stressing that infrastructure development would be critical to achieving the target by 2030. In an article titled “From reforms to delivery: Our infrastructure investment and growth strategy,” Tinubu said real Gross Domestic Product growth reached 4.43 per cent in the second quarter of 2026, while headline inflation fell to 14.63 per cent in September from 20.98 per cent a year earlier. He also said gross external reserves rose to $55.1 billion as of October 9, 2026, including about $46 billion in net reserves, while the tax-to-GDP ratio increased to 12.5 per cent from seven per cent. Tinubu said real Gross Domestic Product growth reached 4.43 per cent in the second quarter of 2026, while headline inflation fell to 14.63 per cent in September from 20.98 per cent a year earlier. The President attributed the improvements to measures including petrol subsidy removal, exchange rate unification, tax reforms and coordinated efforts to tackle inflation. “The decisions taken since 2023 were difficult but necessary,” he said, referring to the reforms. Tinubu said the gains have strengthened Nigeria’s ability to attract investment and finance projects that support long-term economic growth. “Confidence has a price; our cost of borrowing is going down, and the country risk premium has drastically decreased,” he said.