
ALT Over the course of one week, Russia suffered three tactical and strategic aircraft losses. These airframes have been involved in strike campaigns against Ukraine. On 29 September 2026 Russia's Long Range Aviation fleet lost one of its workhorse Tu-95MS BEAR H on a training flight shortly after take-off in eastern Russia. The BEAR H suffered multiple engine failures before crashing. These aircraft have been used extensively to strike Ukraine over the course of the conflict, almost certainly creating a significant maintenance burden on the fleet. On 04 October 2026, a Ukrainian one-way attack uncrewed aerial vehicle strike destroyed a Su-35S FLANKER M multi-role fighter and Su-34 FULLBACK fighter-bomber and a munitions depot at Khanskaya airbase, Russia, 500km from Ukraine. FULLBACK aircraft are used on daily operations to launch glide munitions into Ukraine.

ALT Russia’s spending plans for 2027 almost certainly represent a real-terms reduction compared to 2026. But military spending is set to increase. On 30 September 2026, the Russian government submitted its proposed 2027 budget to the Duma (the lower house of the state legislature). Compared with updated expected spending for 2026, the plan forecasts a nominal spending increase of 0.5 per cent, well short of inflation, which the Bank of Russia estimates at 6.3 per cent. Spending on education, healthcare, and social policy are all highly likely set to decrease by between 6 and 7 per cent compared to 2026 in nominal terms. The draft 2027 budget allocates 17.1 trillion rubles (USD $202.6 bn) towards national defence, which is around 35 per cent of total federal government spending. This is a 40 per cent increase compared to what was initially planned in 2026.
























