One of the more interesting use cases for prediction markets: hedging otherwise uninsurable but foreseeable risk at a sub-enterprise level.

So why does Michael Clay still have a job @Eagles?

When Big Mayo + Big Hot Sauce get together, economic calamity surely can't be far behind.

Kids today have no idea. This was a generational drink

BAL had 1 TO. That opens the entire field. JAX had 0 timeouts. Philly’s defense was solid all day & the secondary is the strength of the team. JAX had already taken one KO back & had another huge (~30 yard) return. PHI’s KO coverage unit is bad & was down one of its best tacklers (Trotter Jr). If you’re going to lose, lose with the defense on the field.

FIRE SIRIANNI

Why does Nick Sirianni have a play card in his hand?

If you're PHI, at what point do you ask Stout what it would take for him to come back + coach? Does he want Sirianni's head? If so, fine. Hand it over. HC Stout OC Manion DC Vic Honestly might be pretty pretty good. And Stout gets revenge on Sirianni.

If you wanted to have a hall of fame career as an NFL coach, all you need is to ask Nick Sirianni what he thinks. Then do the opposite. If a thought ever went through his head, it’d be the quickest trip in North America.

It’s time to say goodbye to Nick Sirianni.

Adams just kicks Mitchell. Of course there’s no call.

Dear Sean Mannion: The screen game is terrible. It’s not ok. It’s not pretty good. It’s not almost there. It’s bad. Stop it.

The memes just write themselves.

She didn’t practice a damn thing. She forced her child to suffer for her ideology, then she used her megaphone to broadcast the struggles of a teenage girl to the world. Nikole Hannah-Jones is the incompetent villain in this story. Her daughter and the children of those parents who listened to Hannah-Jones are the ones who were harmed. There is nothing courageous about actively & intentionally harming your child’s development, then burying your head in the proverbial sand for a decade while your child flounders. Hope this helps, Rob.

This is a scathing indictment of the state of education in many US schools. You’d hope everyone would be on board with supporting & challenging our smartest, most curious & most innovative children- because many of them will be the ones who will be building our future.

If you're a media buyer: how do you define ad fatigue?

People are calling Nikole Hannah-Jones brave for admitting she sacrificed her daughter's education to her politics. They’re calling her courageous for “practicing what she preached” But - news flash - she didn't live her values. She made her daughter live them. The warning signs were flashing red for years: her daughter was bringing home good grades but poor standardized test scores. A self-styled education advocate who has built a career on school quality should be painfully aware of what that gap means. But no, instead of even entertaining the thought that her politics on standardized tests was wrong, she ignored it. And her daughter paid the price again and again. Even now, the regret is personal but the blame goes to segregation and funding, despite the fact that each school in question receives $43k/yr per student. The student-teacher ratios at both are sub 10-to-1. Yet somehow, PS 8 (less than a mile away) only received $15.8k/student & has far inferior student/teacher ratios, but vastly outperforms PS 307. Clearly, the problem isn’t money. There’s no amount of money that guarantees that teachers check student’s work, or supervise the lunch room, or actually do their jobs. That requires leadership, accountability & standards. It requires honest assessments & a willingness to do the difficult thing. But, of course, admitting any of that would undermine NHJ’s politics, so she refuses to do so. And now her daughter’s academic struggles are in the Times Magazine, the 2nd time she's been material for an essay. Calling this brave rewards the pseudo-intellectual who made the choice & ignores the child who paid for it.

An entire thread, from "experts", that sums to: "Let's not teach kids stuff, even if they're ready + eager, because "experts" don't think it's appropriate." Meanwhile, those same "experts" are spending god knows how much time + grant money trying to figure out why the US - with our staggering wealth, innovation + resources - is 14th among OCED countries in literacy and 26th in mathematics. Gee, I wonder.

I've talked dozens of CMOs, VP of Marketings & Marketing Directors in Senior Living. One of the most common questions I hear is: "How much should we be spending on Google/Meta/A Place for Mom/[insert channel here]?" It comes up in budget meetings, ownership calls, QBRs + New Business pitches. Without fail, almost everyone shows up with an opinion & no one shows up having done the math. That's insane, because the reality is that this question has an answer. At its most basic level, your marketing budget is the cost of generating enough move-ins to (i) replace the residents who are going to move out AND (ii) close the gap between current occupancy & target. Those variables are: (1) current occupancy + the tenure distribution of your residents = predict how many units will turn over (& roughly when); (2) target occupancy = calculate occupancy delta to determine how many net move-ins you are needed; (3) sales efficacy (lead to tour to move-in) = how many leads are needed to produce required move-ins; (4) your inbound pipeline (e.g. leads per source + cost per lead per source) = what those leads cost on each platform. Layer in some probabilistic modeling + decay coefficients and voila! You have an answer for how much more (or how much less!) you should be spending. When I first shared this, the response was: "Every community is different! You can't reduce this to a formula." Yes, every community IS different. That's exactly why it has to be calculated community by community + care type by care type, not set by one guesstimate for the whole portfolio. A memory care only community where the average stay is ~18 months and an IL community where it's 5.7 years should have (almost) nothing in common when it comes to budgeting. The math (mostly) isn't new. The challenge (at least historically) is that 99% of senior living marketers couldn't get to it. The data lives in 5+ different places (CRM, PMP, Ad Platforms, Website Analytics, Sales Team). Building the model took longer than the budget season, so it just never happened. Until Now. We've built the first Senior Living Budget Recommendation Engine. It ingests your data: occupancy, resident tenure, target occupancy, leads by source + sales conversion. It gives back the recommended range you should be spending on each platform + care type, plus where that spend should be deployed (including the places you should be spending less - that last part usually surprises people). How much to spend is a math problem. It's time Senior Living treated it as such.