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New publication! Combating WMD in the Middle East
Read my paper with @UNIDIR to see how Arab states, Iran, and Israel are adjusting their WMD policies to regional security dynamics and military trends.
THREAD on key findings and policy options/ 1 unidir.org/publication/comba…
Abdolrasool Divsallar retweeted
Such calls only provide further justification for the Iranian government to intensify repression and tighten restrictions on public space, at a time when it is already ratifying a bill that would criminalize almost any contact with foreigners.
Everybody knows that the U.S. would not need such publicly provided information, given its close intelligence coordination with Israel.
This is nothing more than an irresponsible call primarily aimed at psychological operations, but one whose price, like that of many other moves by the U.S. administration, will ultimately be paid by the Iranian people.
Rewards for Justice is offering a reward of up to $20 million and possible relocation for information about Iran’s nuclear program, including its facilities, equipment, and associated personnel, such as those in the scientific community, or the movement of any of the above.
Submit a tip: rewardsforjustice.net/reward…
Abdolrasool Divsallar retweeted
The IISS has mobilised a team of analysts led by @HTAlhasan and me over 5 months to produce this timely examination of the multifaceted dimensions and implications of the 2026 United States–Israel war with Iran for the foreign policies and defence and economic priorities of the Gulf states.
The entire volume (176 pages of analysis, data and graphics) is available online and for free as a PDF at the link below.
I hope you will find this study of interest.
Over the past two decades, successive crises have reinforced the global significance of the Gulf states.
The latest IISS Strategic Dossier examines the multifaceted implications of the 2026 United States–Israel war with Iran for the foreign policies and defence and economic priorities of the Gulf states.
FREE TO READ | Find out more: go.iiss.org/4eAdMW6
IISS Manama Dialogue
30 October–1 November 2026
#IISS_MD26 | Go.iiss.org/MD26
Whether true or not, rumors of a growing nuclear threat against Iran should be taken seriously by both the international and the expert community.
They may alter strategic calculations on the Iranian side and create a dangerous precedent that encourages greater risk-taking.
Under pressure from Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Trump administration may be within days of launching a nuclear strike on Iran. The target would be Pickax Mountain in central Iran, where Israeli intelligence claims the Iranian government has restarted its nuclear enrichment program. No conventional weapon in the American arsenal can penetrate 300 feet of solid granite to destroy the tunnels where enrichment is supposedly taking place. The only military option is a nuclear strike. Netanyahu has been pushing hard for one. “Bibi calls Trump about it every day,” says an informed observer.
Netanyahu is cornered and desperate. After last week’s election results, he can’t form a government unless Trump intervenes directly in Israeli politics and brokers a deal with other parties that gives Netanyahu 61 seats in the Knesset. Otherwise, he is out as prime minister and on his way to ignominy, investigations and possibly jail. Netanyahu must stay close to Trump. He needs this war.
To that end, he’s applied maximum pressure to his closest allies in the administration, including Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and CENTCOM commander Brad Cooper. Both oppose a negotiated settlement to the war they’ve so grievously mismanaged; both are pushing to restart major combat operations. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and CIA director John Ratcliffe are also following Netanyahu’s lead, as are leaders of the Democratic Party. In a recent meeting on the subject, former president Barack Obama said he opposes the current Iran peace deal being drafted in Doha.
The rest of America’s longtime allies in the Middle East are terrified by the prospect of more war. On September 27th, Netanyahu flew secretly to Abu Dhabi to enlist the UAE in his lobbying effort for a final attack on Iran. The Emiratis refused. After eight months of conflict, Gulf economies are teetering. So are global energy and fertilizer markets. They won’t recover soon. Globally, there are a total of about 850 supertankers used to transport oil from producers to the rest of the world. In October alone, 11 of them were badly damaged in Hormuz. At this pace, a global depression is imminent. A nuclear strike would radically accelerate the destruction. Fallout from a ground explosion at Pickax Mountain would contaminate the Persian Gulf, poisoning the water supply for 100 million people.
And those are just some of the immediate consequences for the region. The rest of the world is every bit as exposed. No country other than the United States has ever used a nuclear weapon in war. Some would like to. An American nuclear attack on Iran would set a new precedent. The Russians have already told at least two other governments that an American nuclear strike on Iran would free them to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine. Pakistan and India would be tempted to do the same against each other, as would North Korea against Seoul. After the first nuclear strike, World War Three is inevitable. That war would be short and final.
We’ve been sleepwalking toward this moment for months. Since February, the administration has quietly rewritten America’s nuclear doctrine to make first use of so-called “battlefield nukes” easier and therefore more likely. No one in Washington in either party seems bothered by this. Now we’re on the brink of it.
Close observers say Trump is likely to decide by next weekend whether or not to use nuclear weapons. That would be November 7, six days from now. To his credit, he’s hesitating. At the moment, Trump is listening to his vice president, JD Vance, and to his envoy and friend Steve Witkoff, both of whom argue a deal with Iran can be made.
They’re right, though it won’t be simple. The Iranians are famously frustrating to negotiate with under any circumstances, and elements of that government have become more radical since Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his family were killed in February. After decades of isolation, even relatively moderate Iranian leaders seem confused by how decisions are made in the West. (There is a widespread belief in Tehran, for example, that the United States government controls Israel.) But overall, people who have spoken to decision-makers in Iran say there is consensus there that more war is bad for everyone and a deal is worth making.
One group that hasn’t been consulted so far is the global population — the hundreds of millions of people who will be killed along with their children if Trump is pushed by Netanyahu into launching a nuclear strike next week. Now would be the time for them to speak up.
Abdolrasool Divsallar retweeted
Iran’s rhetoric on its war doctrine is changing. Mohammad Mokhber, an advisor to Khamenei’s office and a member of Expediency council says that the scope and geography of Iran’s deterrence posture is “rapidly” changing.
Abdolrasool Divsallar retweeted
As an American, I’m pained to say this, but the United States has a huge credibility problem. Given the fate of the JCPOA and the fact it was attacked twice during negotiations, Iran has to worry that, if it makes concessions, the United States will attack it anyway. (1/n)
Abdolrasool Divsallar retweeted
« I will just say this - their plan is insane ...it will lead to devastating escalation and the likely destruction of our commitment to the rule of law. There has been open reporting as to the civilian infrastructure we may be targeting…. I think the plan they have developed will lead in my view to a prolongment and escalation of this war that will be devastating to our security interests".
Join today’s discussion on WMD policies in the Middle East, especially ways to overcome challenges to the establishment of the WMD Free Zone.
🗓Date: Wednesday, October 28, 2026·
🕡04:00 - 05:00 (CET).
📌Zoom Meeting link lnkd.in/esAgBpbH
جمله ای کلیدی از زبان یکی از باسابقه ترین کارشناسان حال حاضر تسلیحات استراتژیک که شاید برای مخاطب ایرانی، به ویژه طرفداران ساخت سلاح اتمی، هم مفید باشد.
«سلاح اتمی تقریبا بیفایده است.»
Replying to @Etienne_Marcuz @KomissarWhipla
In other words, nuclear weapons are pretty much useless...
Abdolrasool Divsallar retweeted
"Israeli intelligence officials understood the nature of the govt they were dealing with: a repressive state with a documented record of arbitrary detention, torture, forced confessions, and executions. Yet, according to Barnea’s own account, they deliberately sought to exploit those very practices, making ordinary Iranians the expendable human cost of protecting their operatives".
What former Mossad chief David Barnea has revealed is a shocking admission of an intelligence operation that knowingly put 1000s of innocent Iranians at risk of imprisonment, torture, and execution, all to protect Israeli agents operating inside Iran. According to @Jerusalem_Post, Barnea acknowledged that Mossad deliberately publicized footage of its covert operations inside Iran during the June 2025 war, intending to provoke mass arrests and overwhelm Iranian security forces.
“We wanted to make sure they arrested so many people in Iran that they wouldn’t be able to distinguish the wheat from the chaff,” he said.
Barnea claimed that Iranian authorities arrested 21,000 people on the 2nd day of the war. He also acknowledged that many of those arrested or executed as alleged Mossad agents had nothing to do with the agency, while nearly all actual Mossad operatives escaped capture.
Think about the extraordinary cruelty of that calculation.
Israeli intelligence officials understood the nature of the govt they were dealing with: a repressive state with a documented record of arbitrary detention, torture, forced confessions, and executions. Yet, according to Barnea’s own account, they deliberately sought to exploit those very practices, making ordinary Iranians the expendable human cost of protecting their operatives.
I think about the 1000s of families who may have been caught between an Israeli intelligence operation and an Iranian security apparatus gripped by fear of infiltration. The fathers and mothers of whose children disappeared into detention centers. The young people whose only political involvement may have been protesting for a better life. The students, workers, and ordinary citizens who could suddenly find themselves accused of collaborating with a foreign intelligence service.
For them, an arrest is not a temporary inconvenience in an intelligence game. It can mean months or years in prison, torture, a coerced confession, a destroyed future, or a death sentence.
Human rights organizations have documented how Iranian authorities used the war to intensify repression, including mass arrests and executions on allegations of espionage and collaboration with Israel.
The Iranian government bears direct responsibility for every arbitrary arrest, every act of torture, and every unlawful execution. Nothing Israel did absolves Tehran of those crimes.
But Israel cannot escape scrutiny and accountability for deliberately engineering conditions in which it knew innocent people could become targets of that repression.
What Barnea describes is not simply clever intelligence work. It raises profound questions about the deliberate exploitation of foreseeable harm to civilians in pursuit of military and intelligence objectives.
And perhaps the most disturbing part is the apparent indifference to what happened to those people afterward.
For Mossad, the measure of success was whether its agents survived and escaped detection. For Iranian families, the consequences could last a lifetime.
The lives of ordinary Iranians are not disposable assets in an intelligence operation. Their imprisonment, suffering, and deaths cannot be dismissed as the acceptable price of protecting foreign agents..
International humanitarian law does not give intelligence agencies a free pass to deliberately expose civilians to foreseeable harm. If Mossad intentionally provoked mass arrests in Iran, knowing that innocent people could face torture, imprisonment, or execution, this raises serious questions of international legal responsibility, including potential complicity in war crimes. As I said, Iranian government bears direct responsibility for its repression, but that does not absolve Israeli officials of responsibility for deliberately exploiting it. The lives of innocent civilians cannot be treated as expendable assets in an intelligence operation.
This revelation deserves serious scrutiny, independent investigation. jpost.com/middle-east/iran-n…
An influential hardliner party, Paydari, is demanding Iran’s exit from NPT and review of military doctrine.
It reflects a united position among Paydari members and their possible attempt to push the system internally in this direction. Only war could have make this happen!
Abdolrasool Divsallar retweeted
As fears of another war grow, calls for Iran to acquire nuclear weapons are gaining ground in Tehran. Could a bomb prevent next attacks, or invite one?
My latest analysis for BBC Persian.
Thanks to @Divsallar his insights.
bbc.com/persian/articles/cvn…
استفاده آمریکا از سلاح اتمی در ایران یک شایعه و اطلاعات غلط است.
استدلال نظامی برای چنین کاربردی وجود ندارد. نشانه ای نیز از طرح چنین ایدهای در لایه های نظامی-سیاسی امریکا نیست. و من هم تاکنون کارشناس نظامی بین المللی مطلع/مستقلی را ندیده ام که چنین نگرانی را تایید کند. /۱
🆘لطفا برای اطلاع و آگاهی خودتون و اطرافیان تان ببینید و نشر بدهید.
🆘در صورت هر نوع انفجار هسته ای و چنانچه نزدیک به محل حادثه باشیم (حداقل ۱ تا ۵ کیلومتر) چه باید کرد!
instagram.com/reel/DezliszOc…
Abdolrasool Divsallar retweeted
How many times will these NEOCONS cough @Geo_papic cough try the same thing thinking this time will be different?? The answer my friend is blowing in the strait
US officials cited here think that an intense, brief (as in, a few days) air campaign will push Iran into making concessions on its nuclear program.
These predictions have been made before. They have proven incorrect. Iran is broadly signaling it is ready for an attack, that it expects one, and will retaliate aggressively.
Trump has yet to make a decision. nytimes.com/2026/10/21/us/po…
Abdolrasool Divsallar retweeted
French Presidential Candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon:
Iran was illegitimately attacked, whatever you may think of its government.
Just because you don't like a government doesn't give you the right to besiege it, bomb everything around it, and destroy its schools, roads and bridges.
That's what the Americans did.
Abdolrasool Divsallar retweeted
گفتگوی فنی و دقیق بین @Divsallar و @Mfazeli114 در مورد بازدارندگی هستهای و امکان ساخت سلاح هستهای توسط جمهوریاسلامی.
ویژگی درخشان این بحث دوری از هیجان و احساسات و تکیه محض بر رویکرد استراتژیک و آکادمیک است، که روال معمول در رسانههای فارسی زبان نیست.
youtu.be/mBnmJFg5K_E?si=_CsW…
This is a shocking news. One of the best Saudi experts in the field and a truly amazing person and colleague. A person who was respected and loved by everyone I know in the expert community. May god bless him.
Abdolrasool Divsallar retweeted
My first @CrisisGroup commentary:
How War is Reshaping #Iran’s Axis of Resistance
Three years of hostilities have transformed Tehran’s network of allies in the Middle East. The Islamic Republic is now relying more heavily on itself, while adapting its relationships with partners whose diminished military utility has not necessarily reduced its commitment to their protection.
crisisgroup.org/cmt/middle-e…
Abdolrasool Divsallar retweeted
گفتوگو با #حمیدرضا_عزیزی از اندیشکده #گروه_بحران درباره #محور_مقاومت و آینده جنگ.
youtu.be/4kXiVPCQyU4
حمیدرضا عزیزی متخصص مطالعات منطقهای با تمرکز بر #محور_مقاومت است. او در کتابش با عنوان «محور مقاومت» چگونگی شکلگیری شبکه نیروهای محور مقاومت، نسبت آنها با ایران، سازوکارهای عمل آن و تحولاتش بهمثابه شبکه بازدارندگی و مقاومت را تحلیل میکند.
youtu.be/4kXiVPCQyU4
Abdolrasool Divsallar retweeted
Iran’s precision strikes picked apart Gulf infrastructure, blunting US war plans - reuters.com/investigations/i…





























