Dmitro Cashback (@DmitroCP) header
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AI, agents and emerging tech sharing what I learn, test and discover member @CELE8EX

Kazakhstan
Joined February 2024
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This is f*cking insane Billionaire Bill Ackman just explained how the AI bubble pulls people in: "There will come a time, there'll be some form of a blowup, a pretty high profile one, where people lose a whole bunch of money" In 3 minutes, he walks through exactly how bubbles form, what he's seeing in venture right now, and who survives the reset 0:06 What a bubble actually is: FOMO and money piling into the same trade 0:30 Railroads, automobiles, transistors, the internet 0:42 AI is "the most transformational technology" of our lifetimes 1:12 $50M at a $400M valuation. Two weeks later, $50M more at $1B 1:34 A Series A at a $5 billion pre-money 1:50 Berkshire hit an all-time low during the internet bubble 2:25 The Barron's list of how many months of cash dot-coms had left 2:41 "That was probably the week before the market blew up" 3:00 The blowup that causes a reset 3:17 His advice: treat every dollar as if it's your own money When a bubble pops, most people blame the market Ackman is looking at the runway: FOMO → preempted rounds → crazy valuations → fast spending → reset → only years of runway survive Old way: raise at any valuation and spend like the money never stops New way: raise now, keep it in the bank, spend it judiciously Better than any $2,000 finance course I've seen
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Dmitro Cashback retweeted
This is f*cking insane Billionaire Bill Ackman just explained how the AI bubble pulls people in: "There will come a time, there'll be some form of a blowup, a pretty high profile one, where people lose a whole bunch of money" In 3 minutes, he walks through exactly how bubbles form, what he's seeing in venture right now, and who survives the reset 0:06 What a bubble actually is: FOMO and money piling into the same trade 0:30 Railroads, automobiles, transistors, the internet 0:42 AI is "the most transformational technology" of our lifetimes 1:12 $50M at a $400M valuation. Two weeks later, $50M more at $1B 1:34 A Series A at a $5 billion pre-money 1:50 Berkshire hit an all-time low during the internet bubble 2:25 The Barron's list of how many months of cash dot-coms had left 2:41 "That was probably the week before the market blew up" 3:00 The blowup that causes a reset 3:17 His advice: treat every dollar as if it's your own money When a bubble pops, most people blame the market Ackman is looking at the runway: FOMO → preempted rounds → crazy valuations → fast spending → reset → only years of runway survive Old way: raise at any valuation and spend like the money never stops New way: raise now, keep it in the bank, spend it judiciously Better than any $2,000 finance course I've seen
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Dmitro Cashback retweeted
This is f*cking insane Billionaire Ray Dalio was asked if Jeremy Grantham is right that AI is "the biggest investment bubble in American history" His answer: "He's right" In 5 minutes, he walks through exactly how bubbles like 1929 and 2000 form, and what pops them 0:13 Grantham: the peak "very soon", everything is in line 0:27 Dalio: "He's right" 0:51 The 1929 bubble and the 2000 dot-com bubble 1:58 "Wealth is not the same as money" 2:12 What pricks a bubble: taxes change or interest rates go up 3:16 Why the late '20s were fantastic right before the Great Depression 4:08 Buy one AI share at $100, borrow 50% against it 4:47 A war or a shock, and everybody rushes to sell 5:11 The share drops to $25 and you're $25 in the hole When stocks drop, most people blame the headline Dalio is looking at the leverage: new tech → everyone borrows to bet → rates rise → forced selling → crash Old way: borrow against paper wealth and hope it keeps going up New way: know the cycle, diversify, keep money you can actually spend Better than any $2,000 finance course I've seen
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This is f*cking insane Billionaire Ray Dalio was asked if Jeremy Grantham is right that AI is "the biggest investment bubble in American history" His answer: "He's right" In 5 minutes, he walks through exactly how bubbles like 1929 and 2000 form, and what pops them 0:13 Grantham: the peak "very soon", everything is in line 0:27 Dalio: "He's right" 0:51 The 1929 bubble and the 2000 dot-com bubble 1:58 "Wealth is not the same as money" 2:12 What pricks a bubble: taxes change or interest rates go up 3:16 Why the late '20s were fantastic right before the Great Depression 4:08 Buy one AI share at $100, borrow 50% against it 4:47 A war or a shock, and everybody rushes to sell 5:11 The share drops to $25 and you're $25 in the hole When stocks drop, most people blame the headline Dalio is looking at the leverage: new tech → everyone borrows to bet → rates rise → forced selling → crash Old way: borrow against paper wealth and hope it keeps going up New way: know the cycle, diversify, keep money you can actually spend Better than any $2,000 finance course I've seen
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Dmitro Cashback retweeted
This is f*cking insane Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang just revealed two new money machines that have nothing to do with selling chips: "I just described two new growth vectors independent of the hardware sale of our company" In 5 minutes, he walks through exactly how Nvidia plans to get paid on every GPU for years after it ships 0:18 - Two new business models 0:27 - Software licensing for the enterprise 1:31 - A couple of thousand dollars per GPU per year 1:37 - 20 million GPUs shipped a year 2:21 - Moving cloud partners to rev share 3:17 - Why Buffett avoids tech companies, and why this is different 4:09 - "Whoever Jensen invests in you got to invest in that company" 4:54 - Why OpenAI and Anthropic won't come around again When people value Nvidia, most of them only count hardware sales Jensen is teaching the installed base play: ship the GPU → license the software → share the revenue → return the cash Old way: sell the box, wait for the next upgrade cycle New way: get paid on the box for 4, 5, 10 years This 5-minute clip beats most $500 MBA lectures
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This is f*cking insane Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang just revealed two new money machines that have nothing to do with selling chips: "I just described two new growth vectors independent of the hardware sale of our company" In 5 minutes, he walks through exactly how Nvidia plans to get paid on every GPU for years after it ships 0:18 - Two new business models 0:27 - Software licensing for the enterprise 1:31 - A couple of thousand dollars per GPU per year 1:37 - 20 million GPUs shipped a year 2:21 - Moving cloud partners to rev share 3:17 - Why Buffett avoids tech companies, and why this is different 4:09 - "Whoever Jensen invests in you got to invest in that company" 4:54 - Why OpenAI and Anthropic won't come around again When people value Nvidia, most of them only count hardware sales Jensen is teaching the installed base play: ship the GPU → license the software → share the revenue → return the cash Old way: sell the box, wait for the next upgrade cycle New way: get paid on the box for 4, 5, 10 years This 5-minute clip beats most $500 MBA lectures
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Dmitro Cashback retweeted
This is f*cking insane Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang just explained why Wall Street keeps getting Nvidia wrong: "Sight unseen, who can you place a 50, 100 billion dollar order on? We're literally the only one" In 4 minutes, Jensen and Brad Gerstner walk through exactly why the consensus was off by 100-200% and the stock still trades like nobody believes it 0:16 The consensus forecast at the start of 2025 0:44 Off by a couple hundred percent in one year 1:13 Revenue forecast doubled, stock only up 20% 1:24 13 to 14 times earnings 1:57 Is the moat increasing or decreasing? 2:08 The $100 billion check thought experiment 3:54 Why Nvidia gives 100% of its business to TSMC When a stock lags its numbers, most people blame a bubble Jensen is teaching the trust stack: proven last generation → confidence sight unseen → $100B purchase orders → a moat that grows with scale Old way: benchmark the chip before you buy New way: "you can't even benchmark these things anymore" Better than any $2,000 finance course I've seen
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This is f*cking insane Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang just explained why Wall Street keeps getting Nvidia wrong: "Sight unseen, who can you place a 50, 100 billion dollar order on? We're literally the only one" In 4 minutes, Jensen and Brad Gerstner walk through exactly why the consensus was off by 100-200% and the stock still trades like nobody believes it 0:16 The consensus forecast at the start of 2025 0:44 Off by a couple hundred percent in one year 1:13 Revenue forecast doubled, stock only up 20% 1:24 13 to 14 times earnings 1:57 Is the moat increasing or decreasing? 2:08 The $100 billion check thought experiment 3:54 Why Nvidia gives 100% of its business to TSMC When a stock lags its numbers, most people blame a bubble Jensen is teaching the trust stack: proven last generation → confidence sight unseen → $100B purchase orders → a moat that grows with scale Old way: benchmark the chip before you buy New way: "you can't even benchmark these things anymore" Better than any $2,000 finance course I've seen
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Dmitro Cashback retweeted
This is f*cking insane Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang just did the AI bubble math live: "They don't have to be anywhere near a trillion dollars in revenues to be successful" In 5 minutes, he walks through exactly why the "OpenAI can't pay for it" fear misses most of the build-out 0:00 The bubble question everyone is asking 0:40 Break it down to first principles 1:22 $3-4 trillion a year in infrastructure by the end of the decade 1:59 Moore's law is over, twice the compute now costs twice the money 3:17 $5 billion per gigawatt then, $50 billion now 4:43 Why two labs don't carry the whole trade When AI stocks drop, most people blame the labs' revenue The split they land on: general compute replacement → neoclouds, sovereigns and startups → frontier labs → a few trillion of infrastructure Old way: one lab misses a number, sell everything New way: ask which part of the build-out actually depends on it Better than any $2,000 finance course I've seen
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This is f*cking insane Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang just did the AI bubble math live: "They don't have to be anywhere near a trillion dollars in revenues to be successful" In 5 minutes, he walks through exactly why the "OpenAI can't pay for it" fear misses most of the build-out 0:00 The bubble question everyone is asking 0:40 Break it down to first principles 1:22 $3-4 trillion a year in infrastructure by the end of the decade 1:59 Moore's law is over, twice the compute now costs twice the money 3:17 $5 billion per gigawatt then, $50 billion now 4:43 Why two labs don't carry the whole trade When AI stocks drop, most people blame the labs' revenue The split they land on: general compute replacement → neoclouds, sovereigns and startups → frontier labs → a few trillion of infrastructure Old way: one lab misses a number, sell everything New way: ask which part of the build-out actually depends on it Better than any $2,000 finance course I've seen
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Dmitro Cashback retweeted
This is f*cking insane. Ray Dalio on the US debt crisis: "Is a debt crisis imminent in the US?" "I think within the next three years" In 5 minutes, the founder of Bridgewater explains exactly how countries go broke: 0:24 - Why it's a mechanical process 0:34 - Countries work like individuals, "except countries can print money" 1:28 - Spending $7, taking in $5 2:49 - Why the market goes down 3:38 - His timeline 4:15 - The boom that's now "heavily debt financed" "Think about this like a business or an individual. They spend $7. They take in $5, spending 40% more than they're taking in" Debt → Debt service → Less spending → Crisis Most people watch the interest rate Dalio watches how much of the cash flow goes to paying the debt Better than any $1,000 finance course I've seen
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This is f*cking insane. Ray Dalio on the US debt crisis: "Is a debt crisis imminent in the US?" "I think within the next three years" In 5 minutes, the founder of Bridgewater explains exactly how countries go broke: 0:24 - Why it's a mechanical process 0:34 - Countries work like individuals, "except countries can print money" 1:28 - Spending $7, taking in $5 2:49 - Why the market goes down 3:38 - His timeline 4:15 - The boom that's now "heavily debt financed" "Think about this like a business or an individual. They spend $7. They take in $5, spending 40% more than they're taking in" Debt → Debt service → Less spending → Crisis Most people watch the interest rate Dalio watches how much of the cash flow goes to paying the debt Better than any $1,000 finance course I've seen
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Dmitro Cashback retweeted
CINDERELLA HAS A NEW REASON TO LEAVE AT MIDNIGHT A palace ballroom, chandeliers, a gown made of pure glitter → the clock hits midnight → she runs out under the full moon → past the crystal carriage → and leaves one glass slipper on the street The creator's caption: "when it's midnight and you still have skincare to do" 633,259 likes, 12M views This is AI and it's INSANE. The sequins, the moonlight, the slipper on wet stone, all generated A full Disney-level scene from one creator. No set, no costume team, no budget Seedance 2.5 on Picsart puts this kind of shot on your phone Would you have left the ball for skincare?
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This is f*cking insane. Citadel CEO Ken Griffin on the AI bubble: "There's almost certainly bubbles within this moment in time. And any radical transformation of our economy is generally intertwined with a bubble" In 4 minutes, one of the best traders alive explains how to think about it: 0:27 - Why every revolution comes with a bubble 0:53 - "I just wish I'd kept my Amazon stock" 1:36 - The railroads lesson 1:51 - Who wins after the bubble 2:33 - "I've seen the entire industry deleverage to zero at least 10,000 times" 3:25 - The rule that keeps him learning "The companies that are on the other side of that bubble are the market leaders for decades to come" "The minute I start to use an excuse, I actually stop learning" Railroads → Internet → AI → New market leaders When markets drop, most people blame hedge funds deleveraging Griffin puts that at option 10 on the list, not option 1 Better than any $1,000 finance course I've seen
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Dmitro Cashback retweeted
This is f*cking insane. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang on AI and jobs: "The narrative about jobs is almost precisely backwards. It's precisely wrong" In 90 seconds, he flips the biggest fear about AI: 0:19 - Why the jobs narrative scares people 0:25 - "AI has created more software jobs" 0:44 - Why energy is booming 1:22 - "It's precisely wrong" "The facts are that AI has created more software jobs. The facts are that AI has created more healthcare jobs. The facts are even AI is creating legal jobs" His five layer cake: energy, chips, infrastructure, construction, manufacturing, all hiring Energy → Chips → Factories → New jobs Most people think AI is coming for their job Jensen is pointing at every layer that's hiring because of it Better than any $1,000 AI course I've seen
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This is f*cking insane. Citadel CEO Ken Griffin on the AI bubble: "There's almost certainly bubbles within this moment in time. And any radical transformation of our economy is generally intertwined with a bubble" In 4 minutes, one of the best traders alive explains how to think about it: 0:27 - Why every revolution comes with a bubble 0:53 - "I just wish I'd kept my Amazon stock" 1:36 - The railroads lesson 1:51 - Who wins after the bubble 2:33 - "I've seen the entire industry deleverage to zero at least 10,000 times" 3:25 - The rule that keeps him learning "The companies that are on the other side of that bubble are the market leaders for decades to come" "The minute I start to use an excuse, I actually stop learning" Railroads → Internet → AI → New market leaders When markets drop, most people blame hedge funds deleveraging Griffin puts that at option 10 on the list, not option 1 Better than any $1,000 finance course I've seen
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This is f*cking insane. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei: "I looked at it and I said, my God, you just scale this thing up another factor of a million and it'll be better than humans at everything" In 3 minutes, he explains the moment he saw it coming: 0:18 - Why GPT-2 was the first real test of scaling laws 1:29 - "I personally was super freaked out by it" 2:12 - Only 10% of people got it, "often the smartest ones" 2:46 - Why the skeptics keep saying the same thing 3:09 - The 6 month / 12 month rule "This is the defining economic and scientific moment of the modern age. We just don't know it yet" "Six months from now, the things that seemed hard, they're gonna be easy. 12 months from now, the things that seemed impossible, the models are gonna be doing them regularly" Scale → Generality → Hard → Easy → Routine When AI looks dumb at one task, most people dismiss it Dario is teaching you to watch the curve, not the task Better than any $1,000 AI course I've seen
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This is f*cking insane. Elon Musk on merging Tesla and SpaceX: "This is definitely the kind of question where I feel like I'm tap-dancing through a minefield" In 3 minutes, he explains exactly where the biggest merger talk on Wall Street stands: 0:38 - Why he has to be careful 0:49 - Both boards formed special committees 1:18 - The "odd kabuki dance" he can't be part of 1:38 - Why calling it a certainty is "overstating it" 1:57 - The 50% vote that makes it hard 2:28 - Why he thinks it's a good idea "Do I think it would be a good idea? Yes" But Tesla needs "a 50% vote of all shares, not just those who vote" His case: superintelligence software, chip design, Terafab, robotics, mass to orbit, Starlink connectivity Rockets → Cars → Chips → One company When a merger headline drops, most people buy the hype Musk is telling you the real hurdle is the shareholder vote Better than any $1,000 finance course I've seen
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This is f*cking insane. Elon Musk on merging Tesla and SpaceX: "This is definitely the kind of question where I feel like I'm tap-dancing through a minefield" In 3 minutes, he explains exactly where the biggest merger talk on Wall Street stands: 0:38 - Why he has to be careful 0:49 - Both boards formed special committees 1:18 - The "odd kabuki dance" he can't be part of 1:38 - Why calling it a certainty is "overstating it" 1:57 - The 50% vote that makes it hard 2:28 - Why he thinks it's a good idea "Do I think it would be a good idea? Yes" But Tesla needs "a 50% vote of all shares, not just those who vote" His case: superintelligence software, chip design, Terafab, robotics, mass to orbit, Starlink connectivity Rockets → Cars → Chips → One company When a merger headline drops, most people buy the hype Musk is telling you the real hurdle is the shareholder vote Better than any $1,000 finance course I've seen
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Dmitro Cashback retweeted
This is f*cking insane. Gavin Baker on the Magnificent 7: "The aggregate market cap, which today is probably 10 to 12 trillion, will for sure go to 50 to 100 trillion But one or two of those companies will go extinct" In 5 minutes, he explains exactly why: 0:00 - Why Mag 7 goes to $50-100T 0:25 - Why one or two of them die 2:06 - The only 3 model companies he thinks survive 2:47 - Where there is no bubble 3:56 - Why SaaS is a bet against ASI They used to compete in different events "They're all competing in the same event and it's called AI. You either win or die" His survivors: Google, Meta and xAI, because they have unique data "At the infrastructure layer, there is no bubble" Apps → Models → Data → Chips Per-seat software is the old trade Infrastructure is the safe one Better than any $1,000 investing course I've seen
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