AI, agents and emerging tech sharing what I learn, test and discover member @CELE8EX
Kazakhstan
Joined February 2024
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Dmitro Cashback retweeted
This is f*cking insane
Billionaire Bill Ackman just explained how the AI bubble pulls people in:
"There will come a time, there'll be some form of a blowup, a pretty high profile one, where people lose a whole bunch of money"
In 3 minutes, he walks through exactly how bubbles form, what he's seeing in venture right now, and who survives the reset
0:06 What a bubble actually is: FOMO and money piling into the same trade
0:30 Railroads, automobiles, transistors, the internet
0:42 AI is "the most transformational technology" of our lifetimes
1:12 $50M at a $400M valuation. Two weeks later, $50M more at $1B
1:34 A Series A at a $5 billion pre-money
1:50 Berkshire hit an all-time low during the internet bubble
2:25 The Barron's list of how many months of cash dot-coms had left
2:41 "That was probably the week before the market blew up"
3:00 The blowup that causes a reset
3:17 His advice: treat every dollar as if it's your own money
When a bubble pops, most people blame the market
Ackman is looking at the runway:
FOMO → preempted rounds → crazy valuations → fast spending → reset → only years of runway survive
Old way: raise at any valuation and spend like the money never stops
New way: raise now, keep it in the bank, spend it judiciously
Better than any $2,000 finance course I've seen
Dmitro Cashback retweeted
This is f*cking insane
Billionaire Ray Dalio was asked if Jeremy Grantham is right that AI is "the biggest investment bubble in American history"
His answer: "He's right"
In 5 minutes, he walks through exactly how bubbles like 1929 and 2000 form, and what pops them
0:13 Grantham: the peak "very soon", everything is in line
0:27 Dalio: "He's right"
0:51 The 1929 bubble and the 2000 dot-com bubble
1:58 "Wealth is not the same as money"
2:12 What pricks a bubble: taxes change or interest rates go up
3:16 Why the late '20s were fantastic right before the Great Depression
4:08 Buy one AI share at $100, borrow 50% against it
4:47 A war or a shock, and everybody rushes to sell
5:11 The share drops to $25 and you're $25 in the hole
When stocks drop, most people blame the headline
Dalio is looking at the leverage:
new tech → everyone borrows to bet → rates rise → forced selling → crash
Old way: borrow against paper wealth and hope it keeps going up
New way: know the cycle, diversify, keep money you can actually spend
Better than any $2,000 finance course I've seen
Dmitro Cashback retweeted
This is f*cking insane
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang just revealed two new money machines that have nothing to do with selling chips:
"I just described two new growth vectors independent of the hardware sale of our company"
In 5 minutes, he walks through exactly how Nvidia plans to get paid on every GPU for years after it ships
0:18 - Two new business models
0:27 - Software licensing for the enterprise
1:31 - A couple of thousand dollars per GPU per year
1:37 - 20 million GPUs shipped a year
2:21 - Moving cloud partners to rev share
3:17 - Why Buffett avoids tech companies, and why this is different
4:09 - "Whoever Jensen invests in you got to invest in that company"
4:54 - Why OpenAI and Anthropic won't come around again
When people value Nvidia, most of them only count hardware sales
Jensen is teaching the installed base play:
ship the GPU → license the software → share the revenue → return the cash
Old way: sell the box, wait for the next upgrade cycle
New way: get paid on the box for 4, 5, 10 years
This 5-minute clip beats most $500 MBA lectures
Dmitro Cashback retweeted
This is f*cking insane
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang just explained why Wall Street keeps getting Nvidia wrong:
"Sight unseen, who can you place a 50, 100 billion dollar order on? We're literally the only one"
In 4 minutes, Jensen and Brad Gerstner walk through exactly why the consensus was off by 100-200% and the stock still trades like nobody believes it
0:16 The consensus forecast at the start of 2025
0:44 Off by a couple hundred percent in one year
1:13 Revenue forecast doubled, stock only up 20%
1:24 13 to 14 times earnings
1:57 Is the moat increasing or decreasing?
2:08 The $100 billion check thought experiment
3:54 Why Nvidia gives 100% of its business to TSMC
When a stock lags its numbers, most people blame a bubble
Jensen is teaching the trust stack:
proven last generation → confidence sight unseen → $100B purchase orders → a moat that grows with scale
Old way: benchmark the chip before you buy
New way: "you can't even benchmark these things anymore"
Better than any $2,000 finance course I've seen
Dmitro Cashback retweeted
This is f*cking insane
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang just did the AI bubble math live:
"They don't have to be anywhere near a trillion dollars in revenues to be successful"
In 5 minutes, he walks through exactly why the "OpenAI can't pay for it" fear misses most of the build-out
0:00 The bubble question everyone is asking
0:40 Break it down to first principles
1:22 $3-4 trillion a year in infrastructure by the end of the decade
1:59 Moore's law is over, twice the compute now costs twice the money
3:17 $5 billion per gigawatt then, $50 billion now
4:43 Why two labs don't carry the whole trade
When AI stocks drop, most people blame the labs' revenue
The split they land on:
general compute replacement → neoclouds, sovereigns and startups → frontier labs → a few trillion of infrastructure
Old way: one lab misses a number, sell everything
New way: ask which part of the build-out actually depends on it
Better than any $2,000 finance course I've seen
Dmitro Cashback retweeted
This is f*cking insane. Ray Dalio on the US debt crisis:
"Is a debt crisis imminent in the US?" "I think within the next three years"
In 5 minutes, the founder of Bridgewater explains exactly how countries go broke:
0:24 - Why it's a mechanical process
0:34 - Countries work like individuals, "except countries can print money"
1:28 - Spending $7, taking in $5
2:49 - Why the market goes down
3:38 - His timeline
4:15 - The boom that's now "heavily debt financed"
"Think about this like a business or an individual. They spend $7. They take in $5, spending 40% more than they're taking in"
Debt → Debt service → Less spending → Crisis
Most people watch the interest rate
Dalio watches how much of the cash flow goes to paying the debt
Better than any $1,000 finance course I've seen
Dmitro Cashback retweeted
CINDERELLA HAS A NEW REASON TO LEAVE AT MIDNIGHT
A palace ballroom, chandeliers, a gown made of pure glitter
→ the clock hits midnight
→ she runs out under the full moon
→ past the crystal carriage
→ and leaves one glass slipper on the street
The creator's caption: "when it's midnight and you still have skincare to do"
633,259 likes, 12M views
This is AI and it's INSANE. The sequins, the moonlight, the slipper on wet stone, all generated
A full Disney-level scene from one creator. No set, no costume team, no budget
Seedance 2.5 on Picsart puts this kind of shot on your phone
Would you have left the ball for skincare?
Dmitro Cashback retweeted
This is f*cking insane. Citadel CEO Ken Griffin on the AI bubble:
"There's almost certainly bubbles within this moment in time. And any radical transformation of our economy is generally intertwined with a bubble"
In 4 minutes, one of the best traders alive explains how to think about it:
0:27 - Why every revolution comes with a bubble
0:53 - "I just wish I'd kept my Amazon stock"
1:36 - The railroads lesson
1:51 - Who wins after the bubble
2:33 - "I've seen the entire industry deleverage to zero at least 10,000 times"
3:25 - The rule that keeps him learning
"The companies that are on the other side of that bubble are the market leaders for decades to come"
"The minute I start to use an excuse, I actually stop learning"
Railroads → Internet → AI → New market leaders
When markets drop, most people blame hedge funds deleveraging
Griffin puts that at option 10 on the list, not option 1
Better than any $1,000 finance course I've seen
Dmitro Cashback retweeted
This is f*cking insane. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang on AI and jobs:
"The narrative about jobs is almost precisely backwards. It's precisely wrong"
In 90 seconds, he flips the biggest fear about AI:
0:19 - Why the jobs narrative scares people
0:25 - "AI has created more software jobs"
0:44 - Why energy is booming
1:22 - "It's precisely wrong"
"The facts are that AI has created more software jobs. The facts are that AI has created more healthcare jobs. The facts are even AI is creating legal jobs"
His five layer cake: energy, chips, infrastructure, construction, manufacturing, all hiring
Energy → Chips → Factories → New jobs
Most people think AI is coming for their job
Jensen is pointing at every layer that's hiring because of it
Better than any $1,000 AI course I've seen
Dmitro Cashback retweeted
This is f*cking insane. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei:
"I looked at it and I said, my God, you just scale this thing up another factor of a million and it'll be better than humans at everything"
In 3 minutes, he explains the moment he saw it coming:
0:18 - Why GPT-2 was the first real test of scaling laws
1:29 - "I personally was super freaked out by it"
2:12 - Only 10% of people got it, "often the smartest ones"
2:46 - Why the skeptics keep saying the same thing
3:09 - The 6 month / 12 month rule
"This is the defining economic and scientific moment of the modern age. We just don't know it yet"
"Six months from now, the things that seemed hard, they're gonna be easy. 12 months from now, the things that seemed impossible, the models are gonna be doing them regularly"
Scale → Generality → Hard → Easy → Routine
When AI looks dumb at one task, most people dismiss it
Dario is teaching you to watch the curve, not the task
Better than any $1,000 AI course I've seen
Dmitro Cashback retweeted
This is f*cking insane. Elon Musk on merging Tesla and SpaceX:
"This is definitely the kind of question where I feel like I'm tap-dancing through a minefield"
In 3 minutes, he explains exactly where the biggest merger talk on Wall Street stands:
0:38 - Why he has to be careful
0:49 - Both boards formed special committees
1:18 - The "odd kabuki dance" he can't be part of
1:38 - Why calling it a certainty is "overstating it"
1:57 - The 50% vote that makes it hard
2:28 - Why he thinks it's a good idea
"Do I think it would be a good idea? Yes"
But Tesla needs "a 50% vote of all shares, not just those who vote"
His case: superintelligence software, chip design, Terafab, robotics, mass to orbit, Starlink connectivity
Rockets → Cars → Chips → One company
When a merger headline drops, most people buy the hype
Musk is telling you the real hurdle is the shareholder vote
Better than any $1,000 finance course I've seen
Dmitro Cashback retweeted
This is f*cking insane. Gavin Baker on the Magnificent 7:
"The aggregate market cap, which today is probably 10 to 12 trillion, will for sure go to 50 to 100 trillion
But one or two of those companies will go extinct"
In 5 minutes, he explains exactly why:
0:00 - Why Mag 7 goes to $50-100T
0:25 - Why one or two of them die
2:06 - The only 3 model companies he thinks survive
2:47 - Where there is no bubble
3:56 - Why SaaS is a bet against ASI
They used to compete in different events
"They're all competing in the same event and it's called AI. You either win or die"
His survivors: Google, Meta and xAI, because they have unique data
"At the infrastructure layer, there is no bubble"
Apps → Models → Data → Chips
Per-seat software is the old trade
Infrastructure is the safe one
Better than any $1,000 investing course I've seen
Dmitro Cashback retweeted
This is f*cking insane. Yann LeCun:
"There is a mistake that people in AI have kept making for the last 70 years"
If a machine can do a task humans see as intellectually complex, "automatically this machine is smarter than humans"
"And we know this is completely false"
In under 2 minutes, he explains why:
→ computers already beat us at equations, chess and Go
→ "this does not mean that we are anywhere close" to human or even animal intelligence
→ it's "much simpler" for LLMs to handle language, code and math
→ "The real world is much more complicated. It's messy, it's not entirely predictable"
When AI wins a benchmark, most people call it smarter than us
LeCun is pointing at what's still missing:
Symbols → Language → Code → The real world
LLMs mastered the easy part
The physical world is the next one
Better than any $1,000 AI course I've seen
Dmitro Cashback retweeted
This is f*cking insane. Elon on Grok 5:
"It will be the largest model to the best of my knowledge
So this is a six trillion parameter model, whereas Grok 3 and 4 are based on a three trillion parameter model"
In 1 minute, he explains exactly what changes with Grok 5:
→ 6T parameters, double Grok 3 and 4
→ "much higher intelligence density per gigabyte"
→ "the quality of the data that we're training on with Grok 5 is much higher"
→ "inherently multimodal, so it's text, pictures, video, audio"
→ "much better at tool use and in fact, creating tools"
When people compare AI models, most of them look at size
Elon is pointing at a different metric:
Parameters → Data quality → Intelligence per gigabyte → Tools that build tools
Bigger models are the old race
Smarter per gigabyte is the new one
Better than any AI course I've seen this year
Dmitro Cashback retweeted
OpenAI co-founder Andrej Karpathy wrote the loop and just released a prompt built on it. Now Opus 5.5 finishes jobs it used to quit halfway.
This is f*cking unreal...
Any task runs as a graph: one check per node, a baseline before any change, and only the wins survive.
Every dead end gets written down, so tonight's run starts where last night's gave up.
$2,000 agent courses teach less than this one prompt.
Send it to Opus 5.5 and thank me later.
The full prompt and the full article are both below ↓
Dmitro Cashback retweeted
This is f*cking insane. Chamath just exposed where AI revenue really comes from:
"1% of companies represent 90% of AI spending
And of that 90%, 80% of them are from unprofitable VC backed companies"
In 2 minutes, he walks through exactly how the AI money loop works:
0:36 - The 1% / 90% / 80% math
0:48 - The full circular cycle
1:21 - Why it's a structural problem
1:51 - What's different from early AWS
LPs → VCs → startups → AI tokens → "revenue" → same VCs
"75 cents of every dollar is actually just a startup sending it back and forth so that they can mark themselves up"
When AI revenue charts go vertical, most people see demand
@chamath sees a bunch of money losing entities spinning money around
AWS had Amazon retail behind it. This cycle doesn't
Better than any $1,000 AI investing course I've seen
Is AI demand real or just VC money on a loop?
Dmitro Cashback retweeted
AI firms need to raise 30% of what the Treasury will issue through '27
AI vs the US government for the same dollars. Who wins?
Chamath: The AI Boom Has a Borrowing Problem
“The entire United States economy is levered to the AI complex.
So very narrowly, we're talking about seven or eight companies that set the tone for the entire country. And whether we like it or not, that is where we are.
Why do I say that? The most important companies in the world are in a massive spending binge, right?
These were highly profitable, highly cash accretive, highly cash flow generative businesses that have said, ‘We're going to put the foot down on spending because we believe in what's coming into the future.’ That's what drives GDP and it's what drives growth.
Now, as they do that though, they deplete their cash and they have to raise debt.
The AI complex now owes $340-400 billion to the market. And you'd say, ‘Okay, why is that important?’
The problem is this: These companies are raising so much money it starts to crowd out the capital markets.
And the most important part of the capital market that it starts to crowd out, is the appetite for government treasuries.
And what you can see here is that when you look at these AI firms, the amount of money that they need to raise through the end of '27, it's 30% of all of what the Treasury's about to issue in that same period.
So, whether we like it or not, they are going to start competing for demand.”
Dmitro Cashback retweeted
MARC ANDREESSEN: AI MIGHT BE A THIRD KIND OF CAPITALISM
He breaks business history into two phases
→ phase 1: "name on the door". Henry Ford runs Ford and "just tells everybody what to do"
→ the problem: "Henry Ford doesn't scale"
→ phase 2: professional managers, "trained to be experts in management", not in the product
Managerialism "basically took over everything". Big companies, governments, nonprofits
VC was the protest movement against it:
"we're like raging against the dying of the light"
Now AI opens a third option:
founder's spark of genius + AI superpowers for "all the managerial stuff"
Because what are bots best at?
"filling out forms… writing reports… doing all the managerial work. Like they're amazing at it"
His verdict for the incumbents: "figure out innovation or die trying"
Are managers the first job AI really replaces?
Dmitro Cashback retweeted
IS THIS ALL JUST A CIRCLE JERK?
Jon Stewart asked it. Ed Zitron, host of Better Offline, walked him through the money behind AI
"OpenAI and Anthropic are really interesting companies, economically speaking, because they lose billions of dollars"
His version of the chain:
→ AI labs lose billions, so banks get uneasy lending to them
→ so they rent compute instead of building it
→ Anthropic will be paying "$3.1 billion a month" to Elon Musk's SpaceX as of December, he says
→ Oracle is building "about $400 billion worth of AI data centers for one customer"
And NVIDIA sits in the middle of everything:
"They invest in all the companies"
CoreWeave "takes out debt using the chips as collateral and then buys more chips using that"
Lab → rents compute → cloud borrows on chips → buys more chips → NVIDIA invests in the lab
"It's magical"
Bubble or the biggest buildout in history?
Dmitro Cashback retweeted
your AI ads are giving it away
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