📈Could the Blue Wall fall in 2024?👀 Had a great time w/ the talented @EricShawn & insightful @DouglasESchoen breaking down the battle for the Blue Wall states. Here are highlights from my comments on @realDonaldTrump leading in our NEW Pennsylvania @AmericanPulse Poll (PollingClub.com)

Can you trust the poll behind the headline? Here are three simple tests. I joined anchor Cary Dunst on @NTDNews Evening News to unpack the crazy Wedgewood fake polling firm and similar revelations, and to shed light on how reporters—and the public—can separate credible polling from bad polling. 1. Three clicks or you’re out. The methodology, full toplines, crosstabs, sponsor, field dates, interviewing methods, and the percentage collected through each mode should be easy to find–-in three clicks or less from the headline. If they hide the details or make them hard to find, throw it out. 2. Find the #1 question: “Who did you vote for in the last presidential election?” That is one of the most important tools pollsters have developed for finding hidden Trump voters, shy Trump voters, working-class Republicans, and other working-class voters who are less likely to answer surveys. If they didn’t ask it, throw it out. If they asked it, but their sample describes a fantasy version of the last election, throw it out. 3. Examine how they collected the interviews. If a survey relies entirely on one cheap method—such as 100% paid online panel respondents or 100% text messages—throw it out. Remember the famous “Dewey Defeats Truman” polling failure. In 1948, Republican households were more likely to have telephones, so telephone polling oversampled Republicans. Today, text-only polling can create the opposite problem by producing too many Democrats. Serious polling reaches voters in multiple ways with a focus on real human-to-human telephone interviews. You can do much more, but these are 3 simple steps to get started. Thanks to Cary and the @NTDNews Evening News team for the conversation.

🚨 Will Campaigns have a dedicated AI position on staff or will it be a hybrid? Julie Sweet explains why the answer depends on the race, the team, and the budget. > Find the full episode here—don’t forget to like, share, and subscribe for more: youtu.be/UiK1-PattOg

🚨 When everyone has access to new tools, what makes someone worth hiring? @JustinGermany explains why trust and the ability to deliver still matter. > Find the full episode here—don’t forget to like, share, and subscribe for more: youtu.be/UiK1-PattOg

🚨 NEW Political Trade Secrets: The Political AI Arms Race: How AI Is Transforming Campaigns, Advertising, & Persuasion. Join me and my guests Julie Sweet of the AAPC and @JustinGermany of Outlaw Media as we pull back the curtain on how AI is changing the mechanics of campaigning in the 2026 midterms and beyond. Episode explores: • The new information filter: How chatbots, AI search summaries, and personal assistants could change what voters learn about candidates. • A look toward 2028: Personalized political messages, synthetic influencers, and AI agents that could change how campaigns and voters interact. • And more! Listen on Apple Podcasts NOW: na2.hubs.ly/H08znPL0

Could some of today’s cheap media polling methods produce another “Dewey Defeats Truman” moment? I joined anchor @VeronicaDudo on @EWTN News Nightly to explain how cutting corners with 100% text-message surveys or cheap online panels of paid respondents could distort the 2026 midterm picture. In 1948, telephone polling oversampled Republicans because Republican households were more likely to have phones. Today, text-only polling typically produces too many Democrats—and too many Republicans who don’t like Trump. By contrast, higher-quality internal polls connect with voters in more than one way and still conduct a majority of interviews human-to-human by telephone. The technology changed. The sampling challenge didn’t. Thanks to @VeronicaDudo and the @EWTN News Nightly team. > Watch the full segment below—don’t forget to like, share, and subscribe to my X for more xitter.cf/DustinOlson/status/211…

🚨 If AI can generate the video, why do you still need a creative director? @JustinGermany explains why the concept, creative judgment, and production experience still matter. > Find the full episode here—don’t forget to like, share, and subscribe for more: youtu.be/UiK1-PattOg

Will Artificial—or Super—Intelligence shape the 2026 midterms? I joined anchor @VeronicaDudo on @EWTN News Nightly to explain what our polling says about voters’ views of AI—and why research suggests a political AI arms race is already unfolding behind the scenes in campaigns. We also discussed why the Senate map may play out differently from the House, why it could buck the national media narrative, and the polling pitfalls to watch in 2026. It was a great conversation for @EWTN’s worldwide Catholic news audience. Thanks to the talented @VeronicaDudo and the @EWTN News Nightly team.

El-Sayed SIGNED a statement in 2012 endorsing Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood president, calling on him to "purge the media and police as soon as possible"... He cannot let Baier ask the question because he has no answer... SO he interrupts to stop it. Totally messed up. Then he dishonestly tries to confuse the issue by making it about his faith or that he's not a member of the Muslim Brotherhood—neither of which is the point or the question. El-Sayed has never explained or denounced this breathtaking endorsement of a Muslim Brotherhood authoritarian or the call to purge the media and police... Why the Hell was a medical student in America signing such a ridiculous thing, called "Statement by Supporters of Mohamed Morsi in America"? FYI, he also penned two op-eds (Huff Post/Guardian) in 2011 pushing back against concerns about the Muslim Brotherhood... He's never had to explain that either. BTW, both Hamas and Al-Qaeda came out of the Muslim Brotherhood. THAT is why this is important. No one thinks he was a member, and his faith is irrelevant. It would be radical for anyone to make that endorsement, whether they were muslim, catholic, or a Moonie

🚨 A dramatization, a reenactment, or a synthetic person? Julie Sweet explains why an AI disclosure should help viewers understand what they are actually seeing, not just simply say some AI was used. > Find the full episode here—don’t forget to like, share, and subscribe for more: youtu.be/UiK1-PattOg

Will Artificial—or Super—Intelligence shape the 2026 midterms? I joined anchor @VeronicaDudo on @EWTN @News Nightly to explain what our polling says about voters’ views of AI—and why research suggests a political AI arms race is already unfolding behind the scenes in campaigns. We also discussed why the Senate map may play out differently from the House, why it could buck the national media narrative, and the polling pitfalls to watch in 2026. It was a great conversation for EWTN’s worldwide Catholic news audience. Thanks to the talented @VeronicaDudo and the @EWTN News Nightly team.

I’m joining @EWTNNewsNightly anchor @VeronicaDudo on the Global Catholic Network this evening at the top of both broadcasts: 6 PM Eastern 9 PM Eastern I’ll answer: Can you trust the polls? We’ll discuss midterm Senate races and what reporters and voters can look for to tell whether a poll is credible. Watch on Cable, DIRECTV 370, DISH Network 261, or Online: EWTN.com/live/TV

🚨 @JustinGermany explains how the use of AI in content production opens up more possibilities for campaigns to produce creative and fun ads and videos to connect with voters. > Find the full episode here—don’t forget to like, share, and subscribe for more: youtu.be/UiK1-PattOg

🚨 NEW Political Trade Secrets: The Political AI Arms Race: How AI Is Transforming Campaigns, Advertising, & Persuasion. Join me and my guests Julie Sweet of the AAPC and @JustinGermany of Outlaw Media as we pull back the curtain on how AI is changing the mechanics of campaigning in the 2026 midterms and beyond. Episode explores: • Satire, deception, & disclaimers: What Julie’s research reveals about voter trust—and why labeling something “AI-generated” may not explain what viewers are actually seeing. • The less-visible battle: How model refusals, political free speech, and data privacy affect the work happening behind the scenes. • And more! >Listen on Spotify NOW: open.spotify.com/episode/6Oa…

They didn’t poll a single person. They made it up—and only came clean after getting caught. I joined anchor Cary Dunst on @NTDNews Evening News to break down the fake Wedgewood polls and explain why polling is crack cocaine for reporters. They can’t help themselves. But when it comes to real polls, my No. 1 rule for judging their credibility is simple: If a poll can’t accurately describe the last election, don’t believe what it says about the next one. Thanks to Cary and the @NTDNews team for the opportunity to shed light on this situation.

🚨 From audience prompts to a finished 15-second ad in under two hours. @JustinGermany and Julie Sweet explain what happened during an AI demonstration at an AAPC event. > Find the full episode here—don’t forget to like, share, and subscribe for more: youtu.be/UiK1-PattOg