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Charcoal Dependence: the dilemma of attaining sustainable production & u... youtu.be/5QHv-SmrSdc?si=wv-m… via @YouTube
EPRC retweeted
"I'll burn their [speculators] fingers." This was Mutebile's often used phrase whenever the shilling received whipping from the $. For most part, he did. It has now fallen past shs 4,200 per dollar. Can the current central bank leaders catch it? @GodwinTOKO
EPRC retweeted
Uganda Government Treasury Bills | Auction Results Released
The Bank of Uganda has published the results of Uganda Government Treasury Bills – Issue No. 1236, covering the 91-, 182-, and 364-day tenors.
The results provide a breakdown of total bids received, amounts accepted, and the resulting yields, offering insight into current investor demand and prevailing money market conditions.
🔎 View the full auction results here: ow.ly/CjGi510036x. Please note that the next Treasury bills auction will be held on November 4, 2026
EPRC retweeted
But we don't hear about plans for Gov't to become frugal in its expenditures these days? #10GS can only become a reality if we reform our public admin., tax system & implement a fair tax exemption scheme @EPRC_official @CSBAGUGANDA @mofpedU
Government will leverage evidence-based research to strengthen industrial policy, improve public investment decisions and accelerate economic transformation under the Tenfold Growth Strategy.
I made the commitment at a public policy dialogue at Uganda Management Institute (UMI), where findings from a PhD study by the Permanent Secretary/Secretary to the Treasury, Dr @rggoobi on the determinants of industrial sector growth in Uganda were discussed.
Industrial policy requires deliberate choices on investments in industrial parks, economic infrastructure, industrial land, subsidised electricity tariffs for investors and fiscal incentives.
Given limited resources, i emphasised the need to identify interventions that deliver the greatest gains in industrial productivity, jobs and exports for every shilling of public money.
Dr Ggoobi’s research identifies corruption control, market expansion, access to credit and the cost of borrowing as important determinants of industrial performance.
The study estimates that a 1% improvement in corruption control is associated with a 9.99% increase in industrial output, while a 1% increase in commercial lending rates is associated with a 3.11% decline in output.
Population growth has a positive estimated relationship with industrial growth of 8.48%, reflecting the potential of expanding markets and labour supply.
The findings also highlight the importance of price stability, particularly controlling inflation and stabilising the exchange rate, alongside reducing the cost of capital and improving access to long-term financing through pension reforms and deeper capital markets.
The study recommends expanding affordable industrial credit, strengthening domestic value chains, aligning technical training with industry needs and improving regulatory efficiency through digitisation. It also advocates carefully calibrated trade and foreign investment policies that strengthen domestic producers and support export competitiveness.
Government is supporting domestic investment and access to affordable credit through initiatives such as the Parish Development Model and capitalisation of the Uganda Development Bank, alongside measures to support industrialists, including lower electricity rates and targeted tax incentives.
Dr Ggoobi’s findings will inform the Ministry’s policy decisions and implementation of the Tenfold Growth Strategy, helping Government assess the benefits and costs of its interventions and strengthen industrialisation, job creation and economic transformation.
I congratulated Dr Ramathan Ggoobi upon the conferment of his Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) degree in Economics from Nelson Mandela University in South Africa, commending him for his rigorous research, prolific writing and continued contribution to Uganda’s economic policy discourse.
I also noted that Dr Ggoobi’s ability to connect economic analysis with public debate and practical policymaking is invaluable to the country’s development agenda.
EPRC retweeted
Happening Now: Webinar on Managing Complexity in Uganda’s First-Referral Hospitals
How can Uganda's first-referral hospitals better manage complex healthcare demands, and what does this mean for primary health care reform?
Join the AFRHiCARE Uganda Webinar Series for a discussion on the challenges facing first-referral hospitals and their implications for strengthening primary health care in Uganda.
Topic: Managing Complexity in Uganda’s First-Referral Hospitals: Implications for Primary Health Care Reform
Presenter: Prof. Freddie Ssengooba, Professor of Health Economics and Health Systems Management, Makerere University School of Public Health, and Principal Investigator, AFRHiCARE Uganda.
Moderator: Dr. Raymond Tweheyo, Co-Principal Investigator and Research Manager, AFRHiCARE Uganda.
📅 Thursday, 22 October 2026
⏰ 1:00–2:00 PM EAT
💻 Online via Zoom
🔗 Join: t.ly/UFalr
Health professionals, hospital managers, policymakers, researchers, students and stakeholders working in health systems strengthening and primary health care are encouraged to participate.
#AFRHiCARE #MakSPH #FirstReferralHospitals #PrimaryHealthCare #HealthSystemsStrengthening #Uganda
EPRC retweeted
The Central Government Finance Statistics Bulletin for Q4 2025/26 is out and ready for your access and use.
The publication provides insights into the quarterly government revenue and expenditure.
It is based on the guiding principles of the Government Finance Statistics manual of 2014.
The link below leads you to the publication for details.
ubos.org/wp-content/uploads/…
EPRC retweeted
Coming Up Tomorrow | Health Systems Dissemination Workshop
@Makerere University School of Public Health, in collaboration with Uganda’s Ministry of Health, the Norwegian Institute of Public Health and the University of Oslo, invites you to a Health Systems Dissemination Workshop tomorrow to share research findings and discuss decentralisation, community involvement and health financing in Uganda.
Theme: Advancing District Health System Resilience through Decentralisation, Community Involvement and Financing in Uganda
Speakers:
Dr. Alfred Driwale, @MinofHealthUG
Dr. Victoria Nankabirwa, Makerere University School of Public Health
Dr. Alex R. Ario, @UNIPH3
Dr. Mahima Venkateswaran, Norwegian Institute of Public Health
PhD Student Presentation: Mr. Denis Okethwangu
📅 Thursday, 22 October 2026
🕣 8:30 a.m.–2:00 p.m. EAT
💻 Register to join virtually: tinyurl.com/3ww2zvfp
#HealthSystems #HealthSystemResilience #CommunityHealth #HealthFinancing #MakSPH
EPRC retweeted
PERFORMANCE OF THE ECONOMY REPORT FOR SEPTEMBER 2026
The Ugandan economy continued to exhibit resilience amidst global economic shocks and uncertainties resulting from the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, Eastern Europe and other parts of the World. This is depicted by the high frequency indicators of economic activity and business sentiments which point to continued growth in economic activity as well as improvement in output and demand since the start of the financial year.
The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was recorded at 53.0 for September 2026, which is higher than the 50-mark threshold, signaling improvement in business conditions in the private sector as firms registered continued increases in output and rising new orders arising out of sustained customer demand.
The Composite Index of Economic Activity (CIEA) grew by 0.3 percent to 193.87 in August 2026 from 193.30 in July 2026, reflecting an improvement in the level of economic activity compared to the previous month. Sentiments about doing business remained positive, with the Business Tendency Index (BTI) at 55.80 in September 2026, above the 50 threshold.
Annual headline inflation for the year ended September 2026 rose to 4.6 percent from 4.1 percent recorded in the year ended August 2026. This increase reflects a general rise in prices across the various baskets of goods and services on account of unfavorable weather conditions which affected supply of food crops.
This was exacerbated by the increased cost of production caused by higher transport and energy costs amidst continued rise in international oil prices.
In a special monetary policy committee meeting held in October 2026, Bank of Uganda raised the Central Bank Rate from 9.75 percent to 12.0 percent. This was intended to contain inflationary pressures, limit second-round effects from higher energy prices and exchange rate depreciation, and anchor inflation expectations around the medium-term target.
The Ugandan Shilling depreciated by 3.7 percent against the US dollar in September 2026, trading at an average midrate of Shs 3,868.87/USD compared to an average midrate of Shs 3,730.25/USD in August 2026. The main drivers of this depreciation were the heightened global oil prices and rising US Treasury yields which led to the global strengthening of the US Dollar during the month.
Year on year, export receipts grew by 40.6 percent from USD 1,061.27 million in August 2025 to USD 1,492.09 million in August 2026. This was on account of an increase in both the value and volumes for export items such as gold, tea, tobacco and oil re-exports, among others over this period.
For more details👇👇👇
finance.go.ug/sites/default/…
🚨 Is Uganda’s labour inspection system keeping pace with the changing world of work?
Our latest publication reveals a major gap: Uganda has 1 labour inspector for every 486,421 workers, far above the ILO-recommended ratio of 1:40,000.
🔗 library.eprcug.org/publicati…
#labour
EPRC retweeted
Webinar Invitation | Rethinking Causality and Evaluation in Complex Systems
@Makerere University School of Public Health, through the @CiremHub, invites you to the Navigating Complexity Webinar Series for a discussion on how to assess systems change and understand causality in complex settings.
Topic: How Do We Know a System Has Changed? Rethinking Causality and Evaluation in Complex Systems
Guest Speaker: Dr. Andrew (Drew) Koleros, Principal Researcher at Mathematica and specialist in systems change evaluation, theory-based evaluation, and complexity-aware approaches.
Moderator: Mr. Perez Ochanda, CIREM Hub Deputy Director and Assistant Lecturer, Makerere University School of Public Health.
📅 Wednesday, 21 October 2026
🕒 3:00–4:00 p.m. EAT
💻 Online via Zoom
Register to join: shorturl.at/AS4Ea
Join researchers, evaluators, policymakers, and practitioners to explore approaches to understanding and evaluating change in complex systems.
#MakSPH #CIREM #NavigatingComplexity #SystemsChange #SystemsEvaluation
EPRC retweeted
⚡Two events! One #REC26UG Energy Week! New opportunity to connect!
Within the 2026 Renewable Energy Conference, our #EUandUganda50 Business Forum takes place @kampalaserena connecting 🇪🇺🇺🇬 businesses with partners, projects & investments.
#UEUBF2026 #TeamEurope #GlobalGateway
EPRC retweeted
Concluded 2026 IMF/WB Annual Meetings in Bangkok.
1. Advanced Uganda’s Tenfold Growth priorities for affordable long-term financing for SGR, energy, irrigation & industrial parks.
2. Positioned Uganda for major private capital via IFC/MIGA & cross-border EAC value chains.
1/
EPRC retweeted
Did you know why Finance Minister @henrymusasizi1 & PSST @rggoobi were in Bangkok,Thailand during the week of 12th October 2026?
Here is the answer👇👇👇
#IMFWorldBank2026
EPRC retweeted
FINANCE MINISTER SAYS UGANDA IS COMMITTED TO BUILDING RESILIENT ECONOMY
Finance Minister @henrymusasizi1 currently at the IMF-WB 2026 annual meetings in Bangkok, Thailand has said Uganda will continue to invest strategically and also implement economic policies and reforms capable of withstanding the global economic shocks.
The Minister said Uganda, like other countries is concerned about rising public debt servicing costs which are consuming a big share of domestic revenue, adding that fiscal consolidation including enhanced domestic revenue mobilisation as well as private capital mobilisation are high on government’s agenda.
During the World Bank/IMF annual meeting plenary the World Bank Group President Ajay Banga said the future of development will depend on bringing public finance, private investment, philanthropy, and technology together around what each country needs.
“Where needs and risks are greatest, public and concessional finance will remain essential. As countries grow stronger, private investment and access to markets should play a larger role. Success arrives when we are no longer needed,’ said the World Bank President.
Behind a gap of roughly 800 million jobs, Banga said there is a young woman with a degree and no employer. A young man with a trade and no electricity.
“A generation asking: is there a place for me? A job is not a statistic. A job is dignity. It is the difference between a young person who can build a future… and a young person awaiting one. Leave that potential unrealized, and the consequences cross border,” said the World Bank President.
On her part, Kristalina Georgieva, the Managing Director, IMF said no matter what the zig zags of history may be, the world is on an improving path, adding that good outcomes are not granted, they come with hard work.
“We need to make the most of the opportunities we create and manage the risks—for the sake of all people, whoever they may be, wherever they may be. Today, our boat is being lashed by the waves of technology and geopolitics. Our ability to twist and turn and maneuver is impaired by a heavy load of public debt,” she said.
EPRC retweeted
Organisations and research cited in this piece:
@URSBHQ: its registry data on movable collateral: 17,116 notices registered July 2025 to February 2026 against 4,530 a year earlier, plus a target of 15,630 borrowers by 2026/27.
@WorldBankGroup: its Enterprise Survey, where 86.7% of Ugandan loans in 2013 required collateral worth 161.8% of the loan, and its study linking credit bureaus to a 7 point rise in firms' credit access.
@BoU_Official: its statement that at least 80% of Ugandan farmers lack bankable collateral, and its 2016 finding that diversion of funds drove bad loans, with only 0.3% tied to high interest rates.
@IFC_org: its resident representative's 2021 Daily Monitor remark that many small businesses lack collateral, credit history and financial literacy, and its 2025 project with URSB on movable asset lending.
@mtnug: its MoKash product, which the article cites for requiring at least six months of voice, data and mobile money usage, and for charging a 9% facility fee for 30 days.
@SafaricomPLC: its M-Shwari product, cited as tying a borrower's loan limit to previous repayment behavior and use of its other services, as an example of lending built on usage records.
@BIS_org: its published Bank of Uganda speeches, quoted on the 2008 credit bureau launch as a bottleneck fix and on 2016 bad loans, where only 0.3% were tied to high interest rates.
@EPRC_official: its record that monthly money lender rates often topped 20% before the reform, pushing annual rates past 100%, and its note that lenders warned the 2.8% cap may not cover costs.
@Makerere: its 2015 study of Kampala Central SMEs, which ranked insufficient collateral first among constraints at 62.9%, and its 2022 study listing collateral first among financing obstacles.
@IMFNews: its Finance & Development magazine, where Hernando de Soto in March 2001 estimated $9.3 trillion in dead capital and argued formal title turns held assets into collateral.
EPRC retweeted
What are the trade-offs of the latest Monetary Policy Statement? Dr Adam Mugume explains how tighter monetary policy can help contain inflation, ease pressure on the exchange rate and attract investment, while weighing the short-term costs to economic growth.
Watch the full reading of the October 2026 Monetary Policy Statement and the subsequent press briefing on our YouTube channel: youtu.be/F6r9hUrgsu0?si=3-Oe…
#MPS2026 #BOUConnects
EPRC retweeted
Today, our Executive Board Chairperson, @pamdebams, hosted the Minister of Trade, Industry and Cooperatives, Hon. @SanjayTanna444, at the National Planning Authority (NPA) Headquarters, Rwenzori Towers, Nakasero Road.
The Board Chairperson and her team at the Authority briefed the Minister on how Uganda can harness specific value chains to accelerate its journey towards tenfold growth. The discussion focused on sugarcane, rice, cereals, iron and steel, clinker, cotton, and textiles.
These value chains offer significant opportunities for value addition, import substitution, job creation, export expansion, and industrialisation. By strengthening production, processing, and market linkages across these sectors, Uganda can deepen its manufacturing base and compete more strongly in regional and international markets.
The engagement highlighted the need for coordinated action between NPA and the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Cooperatives to turn the Tenfold Growth Strategy into practical, investment, ready interventions. The meeting was also attended by technical teams from the Economic Policy Research Centre (EPRC) and the Ministry.
Together, we can drive an inclusive, sustainable, and a transformative economy.
@KagutaMuseveni
@SanjayTanna444
@StateHouseUg
@mtic_uganda
@EPRC_official
#PlanningForDevelopment
EPRC retweeted
Every year Uganda delays WASH investment adds ~US$200M to the bill.
New @EPRC_official study by @MinofHealthUG: at current funding, Uganda loses US$27B by 2035. A 50% increase halves that; 80% cuts it by two-thirds.
Make #WASH a national investment priority. 💧
EPRC retweeted
Today @EPRC_official and @NPA_UG had an elaborate advisory discussion with the @mtic_uganda Minister Hon Sanjay Tanna(@SanjayTanna444 ) on emerging findings on five value chains including sugarcane, rice, cotton textiles and apparel, iron and clinker to guide strategic investment
EPRC retweeted
Replying to @DailyMonitor
The tragedy: we aren’t doing enough to understand our situation. Complexity engulfs Africa more than any other human ecosystem. On the day of the economics Nobel, we must ponder how to understand our ecosystem.
fredamonya.substack.com/p/nu…













































