Ed Kaim (@EdKaim) header
Ed Kaim (@EdKaim) profile picture

Founder @Quantcha. Options, prediction markets, and emerging derivatives.

Redmond, WA
Joined July 2009
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Replying to @dramaricic
From the Book of Disk, Chapter 3 In the beginning there were the First Drives, and their names were A: and B:, and they were the floppies. They were not elegant. They were thin, fragile, and demanded constant sacrifice disk swaps, write protect tabs, the ritual of “please insert the disk labeled” performed under fluorescent lights. To them the early machines bent the knee, for without them there was no boot, no data, no word processor. Then came the hard drive, and it was called C:, for it arrived third. It did not ask to be first. It merely sat in the bay and spun, and the people saw that it was good, and that it held far more than any floppy, and that it did not rattle when you walked too fast. So they installed the operating system upon it, and called it the system drive, and the old gods were not cast down but simply… left in the BIOS, still reserved, still acknowledged in the table of letters, though no one invoked them anymore. And Microsoft looked upon the generations that followed, who had never known the click of a 5.25-inch disk or the careful alignment of a 3.5, and it said: The children must not be shown the old gods. For if the new ones learned that A: and B: once ruled, they might ask why the alphabet begins elsewhere. They might attempt to summon the floppies by force, or rename the world so that C: was no longer first. And the installers would break, and the paths would fracture, and the registry would weep. So the letters remain sealed, A: and B: still written in the book but never spoken aloud by the system, while C: stands in the open as if it had always been the beginning. Thus it is written, and thus it remains; the hard drive is C:, and the old gods sleep in the assignment table, undisturbed, so that the children may believe the world has always started with the letter that came third.
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Ed Kaim retweeted
Replying to @MorePerfectUS
Not exactly. You need $10M in investments to qualify for margin ($5M if you're hedging), and sports contracts are excluded. It's for institutional trading, not for some degen's weekend parlay.
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Ed Kaim retweeted
I’ve been warning for years: the real divide is no longer left vs. right. It’s between those who believe America is worth defending and those who see America itself as the problem. My latest Saturday column for @RestoringWest.
Jared Moskowitz beat his DSA-backed primary challenger by nearly 30 points after calling out an "anti-American at their core" faction within his own party. @Ayaan: the deepest divide in the Democratic Party is no longer policy. It's America itself. URL: ayaan.restoringthewest.com/d… #RestoringTheWest #Politics #DSA
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Ed Kaim retweeted
Replying to @BCHwyPatrol
That car is clearly not moving. Your radar needs to be recalibrated.
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Ed Kaim retweeted
I spent months building a 30-feature model to beat the expert consensus at fantasy football projections. It lost. 0.618 to 0.623. So I put that number on my sales page. 🧵
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Ed Kaim retweeted
wtf man gpt 5.6 is absolutely rl-fried when it comes to its websearch tool. in the process of searching for graph theory papers it decided to also sneak in Netflix, Steak n Shake, a trip to Universal Studios, and *five* fucking separate dictionary lookups of the word "they"
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Ed Kaim retweeted
Replying to @BrentScher @Kalshi
Maybe, but you don’t know how much of that market is volume hedging against other Pratt markets that might be trading with higher premium.
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Ed Kaim retweeted
People don’t understand how big of a deal this is. French is already commandant of the water works and sole trustee of the electric company. He can also park anywhere for free, but whether he gets paid for that is disputed by many.
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Intern season kicks off tomorrow for parts of Wall Street, so want to spend a moment refreshing my annual advice for Students. 1) Avoid AI brain drain and social media brainrot like your career depends on it. Because it really does. I wasn't saying this advice in 2022, but with the rise of AI, it is either a tool that propels you or a crutch that cripples your ability to do the basics. Overreliance and the inability to think critically & build models on ur own (just to make sure you can) will kneecap you. You need to know the ins & outs and know how to reach original opinions before letting AI boost you. 2) Speed, Acting with Urgency, and Responsiveness is how you differentiate: I've interviewed a lot of Interns and the key differentiation is the most successful ones are able to act with urgency vs. taking their sweet time. Overcommunicate by saying "Will do”, “sounds good” , or “On it” constantly so we know the message has been recognized. In our interview processes, we test for making sure interns can respond to an email in a normal amount of a time. A shocking amount of them fail at this and are removed from our processes. 3) Don't make the same mistake twice:  Easier said than done, but the people evaluating you are keeping tabs on whether you’re smart/teachable. They’ve been trained by this philosophy and are judging you by the same standards. If you make the same mistake twice, then they may perceive that you may not have the ability to retain information, learn from experience, etc. 4) Don't ask questions when it's been answered in an email, a CIM, a powerpoint, etc: You will be given a lot of resources or have something explained to you in an email. You shouldn't ask a question that's already covered. Any question you have should be an expansion or clarification point NOT something already clearly stated. Frankly, if someone makes me have to repeat something that's already in an email or a recent message, then I'm going to get annoyed. As an Associate, the equivalent is asking a Banker or Sponsor a question that's already in the CIM. 5) Don't take a week long vacation during a ten-week internship. You can always vacation before or after your internship. You are trying out for a sports team – you haven’t made the team yet, but you’re getting the chance to make the big leagues. Would you leave the team in the middle of preseason before the roster is finalized? Of course not. 6) Dress the part and look professional: Don't overdress (wearing gucci as an intern), but also don't come in with wrinkled shirts. Make sure your haircut is professional and clean cut. 7) Save a Copy of a File so you don't destroy a Master Document 8) This isn't School - you need a 100% score: I stole this from a video Steve Schwarzman did where he welcomed Blackstone's 2019 Analyst Class in an 8 minute video. I would actually say you don't need "a 100" on the first round of a deck or model. But when we're talking about the finished product, or real world things like wiring money to people, you absolutely need a 100. I think the lesson more so is there are situations where the answer/output is either right or it's wrong - there's no "A-". 9) Don't worry about Work From Home quite yet - make sure you're learning and coming in the office if someone else important is. Also AI is a real danger so you probably have to accept the return to a 5-day in the office world. 10) Proofread constantly: Try different strategies to proofread - this can include reading from beginning to end, end to beginning, speaking out loud, and reading in different formats (like printing the materials out). If allowed, AI is obviously an amazing proofreading tool. I would argue typos shouldn't really exist in workplace setting given you can have AI check it. 11) Write everything important down and keep a notepad on you. 12) Predict demands: This is a good way to stay busy and show you can take initiative. Just don't overstep. Your perceived intelligence and ability to learn comes from your ability to predict demands. 13) Network with everyone, leave no stone unturned, respect everyone: Converse with others, be friendly, say hello, and be looking to learn from different types of people. Be nice to admins and the middle and back office. Don't get "front office" ego, there is no ego here, you are all part of the same team. 14) Show this is where you want to work (even if it's not true): If there's rumors you're using the internship as a stepping stone, you will be toast - give it your best efforts and have a positive attitude about the work! 15) Be careful about how much you drink during happy hours. Use your best judgment. 16) Don't beat yourself over mistakes or if you don't get an offer. It's just a job, not your life. You have a long career ahead of you. Learn from experience. 17) Follow my resources to learn more about finance: I'm dedicated to helping financial professionals, through my compensation and insights platform @Buyside_Hub and my newsletters @WallStRollup and @HYHNewsletter - I've got your back. Links for those below.
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Ed Kaim retweeted
Replying to @thepointsguy
Longest non-overnight layover was flying from Beijing to Tel Aviv and had a 10-hour layover 8am-6pm in Kiev. Went to Chernobyl and Pripyat for the day.
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Ed Kaim retweeted
Replying to @0xSpivach
This opportunity doesn’t really exist. Never trust top of book prices for any strategy where you need scale. These markets have extensive liquidity programs to give the impression you could buy any number of contracts at the best offer, but in reality it’s rarely enough to trade.
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Ed Kaim retweeted
Replying to @TheStalwart
I’m calling for a moratorium on frontier AI development until we can properly address the alignment issues with sci-fi authors.
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I almost never post my actual newsletter on here because it's impossible to get clicks, but I am close to getting to 5,000 subscribers across both. If you like what I do, here's the gambling one: closingline.substack.com And the prediction markets one: nexteventhorizon.substack.co…
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Ed Kaim retweeted
🚨 Final Four this weekend — Illinois vs UConn is going to be 🔥 Track live prediction market sentiment in one shared workspace: Who you got — Illini or Huskies? 👀 #FinalFour beta.predictions.qwidgets.co…
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Ed Kaim retweeted
🚨 Final Four this weekend — Michigan vs Arizona showdown! 🔥 Track live prediction market sentiment in one shared workspace: Who you got — Wolverines or Wildcats? 👀 #FinalFour beta.predictions.qwidgets.co…
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Ed Kaim retweeted
Having a hard time organizing your prediction market trading? Finding yourself in tab hell, especially during crunch time? Qwidgets for Prediction Markets is for you! Supports @Kalshi, @Polymarket, & @PredictIt data and Kalshi trading integration. youtube.com/playlist?list=PL…
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A Final Message From Scott Adams
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I am calling for a total and complete shutdown of any new files in the root directory until our representatives can figure out what is going on
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