Elliot

Blue Moon: Current market cap: $308M Current value of 8.85M ACG shares: $208M (up ~20% since transaction, certainly implies Blue Moon left something on the table with Nussir) Cash minus obligation to pay back drawn amounts for Nussir: $72.5M Current implied EV of everything else (Springer, Apex, Blue Moon, Turner): $27M On the one hand, I was sad to see Nussir go at below what I believe is fair value. And I understand the market not valuing the ACG shares at their NAV since there's 12 months before their distribution and it's an illiquid stock anyway. But what I don't understand is the following: - Nussir permitting concerns now substantially derisked and value realized for the project (looking at you, Viceroy! You got the price action here right despite being wrong on every fundamental point) -start of operations at Springer & Apex in ~12 months. At spot, Springer could produce more annual FCF than Blue Moon's current market cap. DSO at Apex could mine stuff with an in-situ value of $11,000/tonne at spot germanium prices. Whatever the recovery/payability is on that, you should be making money. - I think some have viewed the Blue Moon team as doing too many deals in too short a span of time, and get confused by an ever-changing narrative. The company has picked up 3 projects in the last 13 months and divested two. But it's a substantially more rationalized pitch now (hub-and-spoke for critical minerals in the Western US) than it was the last time the share price was here (two small polymetallic projects in tough jurisdictions with no linkage between them). - The critical minerals rout here hurts as much as anything. Until this Nussir deal, Blue Moon was holding up as well as/better than the sector, possibly because the market viewed it as plurality copper. Now that's gone and the investors who were in it for near-term copper exposure have likely moved on. I think the value from here is remarkable, but I also said that six months ago. But the market just seems to have given up here. I haven't.